Jan Achakzai / جان اچکزئی Profile picture
Geo-Political Analyst|Politician|Ex-Advisor GOP| Prominet Columnist| Blogger|UOL Alumnus |Geo-Strategist | Ex-BBC | Chairman Centre 4 Geo-Politics & Balochistan
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26 May 20
THREAD:

#China-#India stand-off at Laddakh & consequences 4 #Pakistan

What I think of new tension?

🇨🇳’s move into #Laddakh & establishing a hold over Galwan river valley comes after 🇮🇳 coerced Nepal by encroaching it’s border territory & reviving Kalapani dispute.

1/
China says that #India actually encroached in its territory. The similar holding over of river valley led to 1962 war between India and China.

What strategic compulsion weighed in behind the Chinese move?

A) What immediate reasons?

2/
1. 🇮🇳 ’s aggressive behaviour re Nepal reviving Kalapani dispute, indirectly implicated 🇨🇳-es interest.

2. Post Aug 5 annexation of IOK w/ 🇮🇳-n intention 2 turn Laddakh into union territory rattled 🇨🇳 that 🇮🇳 is materially changing status of th region contested by🇨🇳& 🇵🇰.

3/
Read 15 tweets
25 May 20
THREAD—#Israel & UAE thaw

🇦🇪’s Itehad Airways’ first flight 2 🇮🇱 created a stir in ME & even finding traction in Turkey & 🇵🇰 w/ trolls running #boycottUAE trends.

But many fails 2 understand geo-political motives of warming ties of #GCC w/ 🇮🇱.

Here is how it prompted ?
1/
(a) Antipathy towards Iran is “cliched” convergence but 🇦🇪 & 🇸🇦 feel shaky when

(b) Iran's #IRGC is upping the ante:

(i) 🇮🇷 pushes 2 populate UAE islands occupied by Tehran;
(ii) succeeds 2 make look US forces vulnerable by “harassment”;
(iii) assertively claiming....2/
....."ownership" of the Gulf.
(iv) making new claims, re Bahrain & Kuwait;
(v) US retrenched it’s leadership when 🇮🇷 sponsored an attack on KSA’s installation.

2 big obstacles 4 GCC 2 normalise ties w/ #Israel were:
(A) ground swell public opinion &
(B) Palestinian cause

3/
Read 10 tweets
14 May 20
Thread:

Losing Afghanistan 2 Indian play?

Here I am flagging 🇮🇳’s role becoming hurdle 2 peace.

1. #US has by-default created “ strategically permissive environment” in West Asia allowing #India 2 push through its destabilising role.
2. 🇮🇳 meticulously spoiled

(a) the momentum 4 Intra-Afghan dialogue in the wake of US-#Taliban deal;

(b) activated state & non-state actors;

(c) first ditched Dr Abdullah 4 Ghani 2 scuttle former’s chance, (1), to win elections .....
3.
....(ie, by having engineered results via NDS/RAW as even US flagged its concerns), (2), to preempt his joining Govt as proposed by US.

Against this backdrop,
(i) pointed reaction of Abdullah camp (ie holding anti-🇮🇳-n protests across 🇦🇫 & burning 🇮🇳-n flags) followed &....
Read 9 tweets
11 May 20
TREAD! Pakistan-Iran fencing?

Why fencing #Iran border w/ Pakistan is a big challenge for Islamabad, not due to money but for the following reason—I am delineating below:

There are 4 issues related but distinct....

1/
1. Narco route
2. 🇮🇷’s grey economy
3. Human trafficking
4. Border economy

I ll address narco issue first:
Illicit drug trade originates from #Afghanistan; is worth up 2 $70B yearly in #UK streets; up to $3 bill is invested back in region rest end up in western banks. 2/
Porous border is used 4 narco logistics/route.

Drugs cartel funds terrorism, & warlordism & mafias in border regions of 🇦🇫, 🇵🇰 & 🇮🇷; they have influence in weak state like 🇦🇫 & desperate elements in structures in Iran 🇮🇷 who do not want stringent border between 🇮🇷 & 🇵🇰.

3/
Read 10 tweets