#THREAD
#SSgovt's economic performance & narrative challenge
🔴🔴🔴
Barely 3 weeks in Office, SS govt did great job on economy but struggled on narrative.
1. It immediately convinced #IMF on package & broad contour of the deal.
Only it has 2 give plan 4 staggered...
a/n .... reduction on subsidies by May 18. a/n

2. SS govt also reached out 2 #KSA: roll over & oil deferred payment. Small prints finalized soon. Solid support guaranteed.

3. #UAE also agreed 2 request of SS govt; details finalized.

4. #China agreed 2 roll over $5 bills.
b/n

THREAD:

#China-#India stand-off at Laddakh & consequences 4 #Pakistan

What I think of new tension?

🇨🇳’s move into #Laddakh & establishing a hold over Galwan river valley comes after 🇮🇳 coerced Nepal by encroaching it’s border territory & reviving Kalapani dispute.

1/ China says that #India actually encroached in its territory. The similar holding over of river valley led to 1962 war between India and China.

What strategic compulsion weighed in behind the Chinese move?

A) What immediate reasons?

2/

THREAD—#Israel & UAE thaw

🇦🇪’s Itehad Airways’ first flight 2 🇮🇱 created a stir in ME & even finding traction in Turkey & 🇵🇰 w/ trolls running #boycottUAE trends.

But many fails 2 understand geo-political motives of warming ties of #GCC w/ 🇮🇱.

Here is how it prompted ?
1/ (a) Antipathy towards Iran is “cliched” convergence but 🇦🇪 & 🇸🇦 feel shaky when

(b) Iran's #IRGC is upping the ante:

(i) 🇮🇷 pushes 2 populate UAE islands occupied by Tehran;
(ii) succeeds 2 make look US forces vulnerable by “harassment”;
(iii) assertively claiming....2/

Thread:

Losing Afghanistan 2 Indian play?

Here I am flagging 🇮🇳’s role becoming hurdle 2 peace.

1. #US has by-default created “ strategically permissive environment” in West Asia allowing #India 2 push through its destabilising role. 2. 🇮🇳 meticulously spoiled

(a) the momentum 4 Intra-Afghan dialogue in the wake of US-#Taliban deal;

(b) activated state & non-state actors;

(c) first ditched Dr Abdullah 4 Ghani 2 scuttle former’s chance, (1), to win elections .....

TREAD! Pakistan-Iran fencing?

Why fencing #Iran border w/ Pakistan is a big challenge for Islamabad, not due to money but for the following reason—I am delineating below:

There are 4 issues related but distinct....

1/ 1. Narco route
2. 🇮🇷’s grey economy
3. Human trafficking
4. Border economy

I ll address narco issue first:
Illicit drug trade originates from #Afghanistan; is worth up 2 $70B yearly in #UK streets; up to $3 bill is invested back in region rest end up in western banks. 2/