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May 31 • 6 tweets • 4 min read
Some more thoughts on meaning of RU oil embargo: 1) economic calculations are not the main issue. It is political breakage of “business as usual” with #Russia. The most sensitive area starts being covered by sanctions. Strategic turn from energy dependence is being started. 1/
2) “Steel” schemes appeared to be flexible. #EU changes its politics, business in areas, which were untouchable before. 3) RU isn’t a reliable partner anymore. The sooner this dependence from RU ends, the safer for the EU. This approach slowly, but irreversibly shapes reality 2/
3) #Ukraine will raise its weight in energy (and not only) negotiations, cause southern part of #Druzhba pipeline goes through 🇺🇦 territory to all 3 countries, excluded from ban on oil embargo: #Hungary, #Slovakia and #CzechRepublic. 3/
4) Russia can still benefit from high oil prices, but won’t be able to replace #EU as its largest export destination. RU oil, produced from Arctic, Baltic and Black Sea region cannot be easily redirected to Asia bcs of lack of logistics. 4/
5) Moreover. #EU is restricting ALL sea transportation for RU oil. International insurances for oil tankers will be prohibited. It is one of the biggest problems, cause ship owners won’t be able to transport RU oil to Asia without insurances. 5/
6) First signals of re-shaping oil market. @WSJ: “Some OPEC members are exploring the idea of suspending #Russia’s participation in an oil-production deal as Western sanctions and a partial European ban begin to undercut Moscow’s ability to pump more, OPEC delegates said 6/

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More from @Mariia_Zolkina

Maria Zolkina Profile picture
Jun 3
🧵#100daysofwar. They said, #Ukraine would fall in max.3 days, but we surprised the whole world. Maneuvering defense, sophisticated tactics, top-level military skills. Huge motivation and spirit in the army and society. In this 🧵 some major conclusions so far 1/
Military summing up:
1A)#Russia failed in majority of attacks: #Kyiv, Sumy, Kharkiv, Chernihiv, Odesa, Mykolayiv.
1B) RU “success” in major part of #Luhansk region isn’t due to RU offensive, but rather bcs of tactical step back of #UAarmy. 2/
1C) Where UA army seriously fought in Luhansk obl (#Sievierodonetsk, Popasna, Rubizhne), Russians can’t take the towns for 3 months already!
Their only tactics is to destroy city to zero (Popasna, #Rubizhne), to occupy this empty land 3/ #ArmUkraineNow
Read 13 tweets
Maria Zolkina Profile picture
May 28
This THREAD is for those, who doesn’t know precisely, how myth about “separatism” in #Donbas appeared in 2014. It was invasion of #Russia and occupation with only difference from now – RU troops were without insignia. Here are some numbers on public opinion. #StopRussiaNOW 1/
March 2014. #Russia has already captured administrative buildings in #Luhansk and Donetsk and organized “protests” around them. They already had weapons and first killing of UA activists happened. Meanwhile Ukrainians continued to go out and protest. 2/
In 03/2014 @dem_initiatives made national public opinion poll about possible “separatism”. 89% in Donbas considered UA to be homeland. Both “independence” of #Donbas or its accession to another country were not popular at all. No widespread separatism! dif.org.ua/article/chi-vl… 3/
Read 13 tweets
Maria Zolkina Profile picture
May 26
🧵#Russia is continuing attack using no sophisticated tactics: just burn everything out using its domination in artillery and air bombardment. Goal is clear: push stronger to prevent some Western states from sending heavy weapons to 🇺🇦 and make them think about negotiations. ⬇️
Now its a turning point for several states: large weapons supply will make UA definitely win. We lack only offensive weapons in needed quantities. Some on the West still have to make final decision: send it and defeat #Russia completely, or not send and use half-measures 2/
The latter mean fear and lack of understanding, what to do with defeated (and collapsing afterwards) #Russia. But half-measures don’t work this time. It’s not 2014. UA military victory now is the only key to predictable regional and Europe-wide security. 3/
Read 4 tweets
Maria Zolkina Profile picture
Apr 30
Regiment #Azov continues to be absurdly accused of being “neo-nazi/extremists/far-right”. Working with media as an expert I state: journalists in many cases do not dig deep, don’t understand context and use myths about Azov without attempt of fact checking. Here is a 🧵
Where are media often wrong? 1.Biletsky isn’t a leader of Azov. He neither commands it, nor influences commanders. He has no formal relation to regiment, which is part of National Guard of UA. He is leader of party “National corpus”, but commanded Azov only several months in 2014
No, Azov isn’t a military wing of the party “National corpus”. Azov was founded by Biletsky, and he has been benefiting from its image since than. There are personal links btw former and current soldiers of Azov, but that doesn’t mean Azov is guided or commanded from outside.
Read 6 tweets
Maria Zolkina Profile picture
Apr 25
🧵We should stop weapons supply to #Ukraine, cause the more weapons, the longer war and the more casualties! Risky and manipulative argument, used by loyal to #Russia experts and politicians to stop soppier of UA. Here are several counter arguments to that. 1/
Military counter argument. UA army is efficient in repelling massive offensive. RU had to leave Kyiv, Chernihiv, Sumy and almost all Kharkiv regions. 4 weeks of attacks in Luhansk obl. didn’t bring RU control over main cities, besides of Kreminna. RU occupied there rural areas
Success in repelling RU offensive happened BEFORE massive weapons delivery to UA. Decisions on new massive supplies, including of heavy offensive weapons, started being made on the edge of March-April and continues now.
Read 8 tweets
Maria Zolkina Profile picture
Apr 18
THREAD with quotations of the story about attempts to leave Mariupol. People have to pass dozens of #Russian check-points and filtration camp. For lot of civilians it is road of death. Link to original story will be at the end of THREAD.
“The camp is not a settlement, it's just a column of cars. There were 500 cars in line in front of us, thousands more behind us. Getting out of cars, looking for food, water, going to the toilet was forbidden. Soldiers with weapons went everywhere, threatened, checked” 2/
“Here's how filter camp works: they have a checkpoint. There comes a car, where they check every pocket, trunk, every bag, clothes and what's under it. Men are undressed outside near cars. Soldiers are looking for tattoos, some labels. Looking for "nationalists"” #StopRussia
Read 16 tweets

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