Thread by @AggregateOsint

#Severodonetsk - #Ukraine suffered a major setback to its counterattack in the last day & has been pushed back into the industrial zone in the W of the city. #Russian forces have advanced forward of previous lines but a blistering artillery barrage from both sides is underway.

#NASA FIRMS 24 hours data shows that huge sections of the city were on fire today, which is an indicator of shelling or explosives. The shelling appears to be from #Ukraine & #Russian directed at both forward units and resupply and command control areas of the opposite side.

This artillery barrage is creating a zone between the line of contact that is essentially occupied by neither side at the moment because any soldier who is spotted in that zone is immediately hit with a massive barrage. We have updated our map to indicate the unoccupied zone.

This new map indicates blue for territory still held by #Ukraine on the NE side of the Donets River in this area and then red for area areas controlled by #Russia. This will provide better context for what territory is controlled by #RuAF and what territory is controlled by #UAF.

Today Luhansk Governor Serhiy Gaidai said that the fighting had taken a turn for the worse and that the situation was deteriorating for the #UAF. In addition, #Ukrainian Pres. #Zelenskiy said about the battle, "They outnumber us, they are more powerful," reuters.com/business/aeros…

This was a major walk back of comments from Governor Serhiy Gaidai who said just 2 days ago that the city had no chance of falling w/in the next two weeks due to #UAF gains. His latest comments paint a picture of a #UAF that will have to soon withdraw. news.sky.com/story/ukraine-…

Today, several videos were posted by #Russian sources that appear to be new due to the massive increase in damage to the city. Videos from a week ago showed a city that was somewhat intact. Videos posted today show burnt out buildings and damaged infrastructure.

This pushback by #Russia was inevitable as long as it had any remaining combat power to spare, however it appeared for a short time that #Ukrainian troops may liberate the city before #RuAF could get those reinforcements to the frontlines. That was not the case.

The current artillery barrage that is ongoing in the city may prevent short term advances by #Russia as it softens #UAF defenses. In addition, in the NASA FIRMS data above, #Russia appears to be targeting rear areas in Lysychans'k that could hamper #UAF's ability to respond.

Despite the heavy shelling by #Ukrainian troops on #RuAF positions, it now appears that #Russia has regained the initiative in #Severodonetsk. #UAF is in a precarious position with it's back to the river, but videos posted today show at least 1 bridge is damaged but drivable.