As I suggested for more that two decades: "The European Commission has recommended that Ukraine and Moldova should be granted European Union candidate status, a first step in the long process of accession." 1/ rferl.org/a/ukraine-geor…
"Launching accession talks requires unanimous approval from all member countries. EU leaders leaders are expected to approve Ukraine's candidate status at their June 23-24 summit, but with stern conditions attached, and membership may take years or even decades." Or never. 2/
My study findings: Democracy is positively associated with #NATO & #EU accession, while being post-Soviet country has negative effect. Conflicts have negative impact on NATO enlargement. Level of economic development has positive effect on EU accession. 3/ researchgate.net/publication/25…
I suggested for long time #EU accession of #Ukraine as way to prevent its violent break-up & war with #Russia & turn it into democracy. EU decision is finally set to make Ukraine EU candidate with conditions. But it comes too late after break-up & war. 4/ academia.edu/2096561/EU_int…
2007: "Membership in the EU is an issue which can potentially unite western and eastern Ukrainians, if current EU leaders were in possession of more vision and less prejudice concerning Ukraine, which is often not even regarded as part of Europe." 5/
kyivpost.com/article/opinio…
January 15, 2014: "...the West can help to settle the current conflict and create incentives for the EU integration and democratic development by offering Ukraine a formal recognition of its potential right for a membership in the European Union." #EU 6/ kyivpost.com/article/opinio…
CTV interview: Ukraine-Russia conflict, which can escalate into war, can be resolved by offering #Ukraine EU membership prospects, if it would fulfill accession criteria, such as democracy, in exchange for no NATO membership & resolving Donbas conflict. 7/ academia.edu/video/jKB6Ak
"Such an agreement could offer Ukraine a path to membership in the EU, provided it fulfills accession criteria—...democracy, the rule of law, human rights—in exchange for agreeing not to seek NATO membership and to resolve the conflict in the Donbas..." 8/ canadiandimension.com/articles/view/…
"conflict resolution can be done via an international agreement that offers Ukraine European Union membership prospects provided that it fulfills accession criteria (such as democracy) in exchange for neutral status and resolving the conflict in Donbas" truthout.org/articles/lies-…
And in my @CBCNews interview: "Ukraine could be offered EU membership as part of a peace deal where it agrees to renounce NATO membership and declares itself neutral," said Katchanovski." #EU #RussiaUkraineWar #UkraineRussiaConflict cbc.ca/news/politics/…

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More from @I_Katchanovski

Jun 16
Democracy: #Ukrainian court has banned 9 opposition parties in #Ukraine without any public hearings. Today it banned 2 parties. Ukraine under authoritarian rule of #Zelenskyy is again largely undemocratic. He uses #war to ban opposition & grab power. pravda.com.ua/news/2022/06/1…
"The Shariy Party has become the ninth party banned.
Earlier, the court also banned the Socialist Party of Ukraine , the Left Opposition, the Opposition Bloc, the Socialists, Justice and Development, Ours, the State, and the Volodymyr Saldo Bloc." strana.news/news/395752-su…
Read 5 tweets
Jun 12
Bombshell: Maidan massacre trial in #Ukraine reveals that prosecution stopped all on-site investigative experiments to determine locations of shooters after first such experiment showed that Maidan protester was shot from Maidan-controlled Hotel Ukraina 1/
Maidan massacre trial ordered investigative experiments by ballistic & medical forensic experts to determine if Maidan protesters were shot by snipers from Maidan-controlled buildings. But prosecution stopped them after first one showed exactly that. 2/
Prosecution denies any snipers in Maidan-controlled buildings despite own forensic experts confirming that such snipers shot protesters. Not single media reported about this latest revelation about Maidan snipers by Maidan massacre trial in #Ukraine. 3/ researchgate.net/publication/35…
Read 6 tweets
Jun 10
"European Union’s executive arm is expected to recommend next week that Ukraine be granted candidate status, a key step on the long path to EU membership, according to people familiar with the matter." 1/ bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
"A final European Commission opinion, even if positive, would need the approval of member states before Ukraine is officially granted the status.... The membership process includes an arduous set of steps and conditions that can normally last more than a decade..." 2/
"Germany said an outcome could be conditional candidate status, the officials said. Denmark said that Ukraine does not sufficiently fulfil criteria related to the stability of institutions guaranteeing democracy, the rule of law, human rights and respect for ... minorities." 3/
Read 6 tweets
Jun 9
#Zelenskyy presidential office adviser states that #Ukrainian military casualties are now 100-200 killed per day. It equals 3,000-6,200 killed per month. Typical wounded ratio suggests that 500-1,000 are wounded per day that equals 15,000-30,000 per month. bbc.com/ukrainian/news…
Officially admitted #Ukrainian military losses of 100-200 killed per day in #UkraineRussiaWar exclude missing in action & apparently SBU, police & other non-military personnel. Armchair warriors, who push to continue the war to the last Ukrainian, need to go & fight themselves.
Read 11 tweets
Jun 8
More evidence that #Russia plans to annex #Donbas: New prime minister of separatist DNR is ex-head of department of Ministry of Industry and Trade of Russia. Two other #Russian ex-officials are his deputies. Recently killed Russian general was commander of DNR military. #Ukraine
Member of #Ukraine parliament from #Zelenskyy party, who choose to stay in #Russian-occupied #Kherson, said that first deputy head of presidential administration of #Russia stated at their meeting there "that Russia is here seriously and for a long time." pravda.com.ua/news/2022/06/8…
Various evidence shows that #Russia also plans to annex #Kherson Region, parts of #Zaporizhzhia & #Kharkiv regions & other parts of Eastern & Southern #Ukraine that it would manage to occupy. Russia appointed there administrations led by local pro-Russian politicians & officials.
Read 11 tweets
Jun 8
This report is consistent with my daily examination of dozens of videos. They show that artillery & missile strikes by #Russian, separatist & #Ukrainian forces are most deadly weapons in #UkraineWar. And #Russia has big advantage in artillery & missiles. cbc.ca/news/world/eas…
It was clear from start of #RussiaUkraineWar that #Russia has such big military advantage over #Ukraine & that gambling on defeating #Russia against all odds would cost large number of #Ukrainian lives & territory, compared to possible peace deal. But many backed such gamble.
And various other such media reports: "The Fight to Survive Russia’s Onslaught in Eastern Ukraine. The war has become, as one Ukrainian soldier put it, a game of “artillery Ping-Pong.” newyorker.com/news/dispatch/…
Read 5 tweets

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