4,000-5,000 non #Syria|n fighters still being detained in NE #Syria, along w/thousands of family members-"a serious ongoing security & humanitarian threat" @StateDept acting CT Coordinator Timothy Betts tells @MiddleEastInst@ICSR_Centre
Leaving them there "not a viable option"
"#ISIS knows that prisons breaks work-they're time tested and generate long-lasting results" per @StateDept's Betts
ISIS tried at #Hasakah in January, has others in its sights-"We know they will try to attack them again"
"The only durable solution...is for each country to take back its nationals" per @StateDept's Betts
"We cannot fight our way out of this side of the battle" vs #ISIS, he says
"There is great urgency" per @StateDept's Betts "But we do not have to solve the entire problem all at once"
Betts suggests starting on the easier problems:
-repatriating women & children
-fund vital humanitarian/stabilization efforts
-work w/other gvts on repatriation
Conditions in NE #Syria, at places like #alHol are so harsh, "We are seeing a greater openness there by resident's to #ISIS' return" warns @StateDept's Betts
#Iraq|is represent 1 out of every 3 detained fighters in NE #Syria, per @StateDept's Betts
Detainees in NE #Syria - "We must collectively work on this problem & we must work on it now"per @StateDept's Betts, calling it a political problem bcs of dangers posed by repatriated #ISIS fighters radicalizing others
Per @StateDept's Betts, not addressing the detainee issue, leaving them in NE #Syria risks "The possible resurgence of #ISIS"
"The balance of risk is far greater" leaving foreign nationals there, he says
Repatriating prisoners, detainees in NE #Syria - "This is achievable & far cheaper than the military blood and treasure" needed to defeat #ISIS' caliphate in #Syria & #Iraq, per @StateDept's Betts
#ISIS attempted #Hasakah prison break in January 2022 "was a wake-up call" per @StateDept's Betts
"It demonstrated the detention facilities were not as secure as we might have believed...underscored we need to pick up the pace of improving the facilities"
Says the #Hasakah prison break/attack by #ISIS also showed the need to improve humanitarian conditions & address need to keep youth separate
#Hasakah prison break-"Not clear of those detainees who aren't there [now], how many of them died & who rejoined the fight" per @StateDept's Betts
Escapees - about a dozen - "Hardened fighters, definitely capable ppl"
"The attack was also a wake-up cal for the #SDF...we expect that they have also made adjustments" per @StateDept's Betts
But he adds, "We do see a continuing need"
"In the last 18 months, the #Iraq|is have really stepped up their game" on repatriations from NE #Syria, per @StateDept's Betts
Iraq w/int'l assistance, have addressed many of the issues to help make reintroducing ppl to their communities of origin - going "quite well" he says
#alHol - "Security is a huge problem there" per @StateDept's Betts, who says US training #Syria|n security forces "who will have a civilian face"
"What we want to avoid is militarization of the camp ...It needs to remain a civilian operation"
The militarization option in #alHol that the US wants to avoid is a need to send in US forces, per @StateDept's Betts
#Turkey threats to launch new military campaign in NE #Syria - "Increased military activity...is only going to increase the instability & the opportunities for #ISIS" per @StateDept's Betts
Warns military activity will likely be used by ISIS to attempt more prison breaks
"It's difficult to send ppl back to countries were we aren't assured they are going to receive humane treatment" per @StateDept's Betts
"We're prepared to help countries that are willing to take back their nationals but lack the capacity"
"#ISIS is not gone" per @WHNSC's Joshua Geltzer, who says ISIS still sticking w/its basic game plan of taking advantage of ungoverned spaces, instability, carry out attacks and try to establish some territorial control
ISIS claiming 350 attacks this year in #Iraq#Syria
US sees financial movement between #ISIS core & its affiliates, as well as attempts to maintain a coherent over-arching strategy, @WHNSC's Joshua Geltzer tells @MiddleEastInst@ICSR_Centre
"There is a level of collaboration & coordination" per @WHNSC's Joshua Geltzer on #ISIS & its affiliates
Points to call by ISIS core earlier this year for affiliated to ramp up attacks - a call he says was answered