Thread by @DedalusDelegate

1/ #MarkTwain once said "History doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes". Today, I will talk about a conflict that strongly rhymes to the Russian invasion of #Ukraine. The Sino-Vietnamese War. The amount of similarities between both conflicts deserve our attention.

2/ Understanding the #Sino-#Vietnamese #War will help us understand the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Furthermore, this may be a key to help us understand the position of the Vietnamese population. Note how the Vietnamese government has been particularly cold on their neutrality.

3/ The Sino-Vietnamese War is part of a complicated mess involving #Vietnam, #China, and #Cambodia. It started in February 1979 and ended 27 days later with a full withdrawal of Chinese forces. It is possible to argue that Vietnam won, even if China argues otherwise.

4/ One striking parallel between Vietnam 1979 and Ukraine 2022 is how the aggressor was vastly superior in paper, but nonetheless failed to take the capital of the defending country. Note that #Hanoi and #Kyiv are at 130 km and 80 km from the border crossed by the aggressor.

5/ Another similarity is the international support. In 1979 #Vietnam received help from the #USSR in its fight against #China. Now in 2022, #Ukraine is receiving help from the #US and #EU in its fight against #Russia. In both cases the defenders got the international upper hand.

6/ The clash between China and the USSR represents a profoundly complex subject referred as the Sino-Soviet split. The intricacies of this topic exceeds the intended reach of this thread. Nonetheless, I strongly encourage everybody interested to give it a look.

7/ Back to the main topic, the most striking difference between Vietnam 1979 and Ukraine 2022 is the time frame of the invasions. While China called it quits before a month into their initial attack, Russia keeps pilling losses more than 140 days after the main invasion began.

8/ What can we learn from the similarities and differences? I say there are a couple lessons. Firstly, Ukraine can win, just as Vietnam won. Secondly, the Chinese leadership in 1979 appears to be more capable, proficient, and adaptive than the Russian leadership in 2022.

9/ This was also explains the current attitude of the Vietnamese government. They have been extra dry while addressing this war. Not only they have presented a neutral stance (like other countries). They have the shortest addresses of all of their neighbors and similar countries.

10/ I think that the Vietnamese government stance is because they know they are walking a tightrope. On one side, the attacker is an official ally, while they must feel an overwhelming empathy with Ukraine. Both countries are successors of the ally that saved them in 1979.

11/ Moreover, their once invader, China, is still there and growing stronger every day. With all the Russian military committed in Ukraine (and degrading rapidly), the geopolitical calculation in Vietnam has surely changed dramatically.

12/ My assessment is that the Vietnamese government must be terrified. If Russia losses and collapses as a country. Will China try to take Hanoi again now that Russia is gone? On the other side. If Russia wins. Would that embolden China to take actions detrimental to Vietnam?

13/ Because of this, I'm convinced that the best outcome for Vietnam is the immediate cessation of hostilities. No win for Russia that would embolden China. No Russian collapse that could incite an undesired Chinese power play. Status quo ante bellum.

14/ Such outcome aligns to the Ukrainian objectives. Therefore the obligatory question becomes. What the hell is the Vietnamese government waiting? They, of all people, should be furiously coordinating with the Ukrainian government to end this war. Yet, I only hear silence.

15/ I hope this thread reaches the eyes of Vietnamese officials. Vietnam could make a difference in this horrible war while aligning to their best interests. I kindly request @MFA_Ukraine and @ukrinvnm to push this message to the Vietnamese government. #StandWithUkraine

16/16 Previous thread:

https://twitter.com/DedalusDelegate/status/1545692832161116160