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Marco, the Yugo Surfer Profile picture
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Jul 27 • 8 tweets • 8 min read
1/
 I want to add some more details about the potential reshaping of European alliances and territories.
Moreover I want to address the question about how #Serbia and #Hungary could survive opposing Western orders.
#Russia #Ukraine #Kiev #Donbass
2/
 I was asking myself for some time, since the beginning of the #SMO, how does #Orban, from #Hungary, and #Vucic, from #Serbia, openly withstand the Western pressure, to comply. Why was I curious?
- They can't withstand The West militarily.
- They would be sanctioned to death.
3/
 - They are landlocked with hostile #NATO countries (I know, that #Hungary IS NATO)
Under such circumstances you can NOT afford, to not follow Western orders.
How can they do it then?
If we take a look at the map, then I think we can see the answer. See my attached map. Image
4/
 What does it mean?
If we take into consideration all the recent meetings between #Putin, #Orban and #Vucic and the developing "courage" of the last two, we could assume, that their future were discussed. Especially their security, economic and supply future.
If you study the
5/
 map carefully, then you will see, that those countries will have a land-bridge to #Russia (former #Ukraine land) and its black sea ports as well. With this access we can assume, that all three disadvantages, mentioned above, will be neglected.
By considering this, it starts
6/
 making perfect sense, that those leaders are almost openly, siding with #Putin and the new multi-polar law(#UN) based world order.

Since I see absolute confidence in the attitude of this leaders, it could be safe to assume, that the WHOLE of #Ukraine will fall.
7/
 That this is an agreed issue that is currently being implemented. Moreover we could safely assume, that the connection between #Russia and #Hungary (former West #Ukraine) will take place in a not to far future. Otherwise those countries wouldn't "rebel" that early ahead.
8/
 That's it for this issue. All the conclusions, or let's say assumptions are based on applying induction(logic) on given facts.

Would be truly big, if #Serbia gets land access to #Russia and its #blacksea shores.
Would be our true independence 😀
We could openly shit on #EU 😁

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More from @YugoSurfer

Marco, the Yugo Surfer Profile picture
Jul 29
1/
 Since many people asking why the (#US) United States would be interested in de-industrialize #Europe, I just decided, to explain it.
Europe, United states and all other Western states expanded its market access, since the collapse of the Soviet Union,
2/
 dramatically, all over the world. Those Western countries were producing goods for the whole world and hindered those "customer" countries to build up an own reliable economy and industry.
#economics #Russia #US #EU #Europe
3/
 They were producing with cheap resources and labor from third world, and developing countries (#BRICS). Moreover did they transfer whole industries to these countries, to produce even cheaper and more efficient. By exploiting these countries for their resources,
#economics
Read 16 tweets
Marco, the Yugo Surfer Profile picture
Jul 27
1/
 People asking all the time, why #Russia isn't telling straight forwardly, that the reduction of #gas flows to #Europe is a counter sanction. It annoys me as well, that they don't communicate it straight "in their face" that they are being recked currently. Well...
2/
 Russia can't do that currently.
Why?
Because #Russia needs to be a reliable partner for the emerging new order and the (now overtaking) global south.
#Ukraine #BRICS #Europe #EU
3/
 Russia wouldn't be in the best position internationally (global south), if claiming that it wants to fight such behavior, but on the other hand is applying it on its own.

That's why I expect some more ridicules and awkward games, until #Russia can eventually fully cease #gas
Read 4 tweets
Marco, the Yugo Surfer Profile picture
Jul 25
1/
 With this thread I want to re-explain in short, why #Russia is making little gains these days in #Ukraine. Especially amidst the steady reporting of the Western #MSM and various Western "intelligence" (propaganda) reports, that Russia's offensive is stalling.
2/
 Of course I explained it in detail in my previous threads, which you can read as well.
See here.
The reason, why I decided to re-write it, is a conversation, that I had recently with some smart Western business and academic partners.
3/
 They are actually smart people, but when it comes down to #Ukraine, they reiterate 1:1 the #MSM content. #Russia is done, Russia will collapse, Russia lost a million men, Russia doesn't gain any ground anymore, etc. etc. etc.
So feel free to share my thread with such people :)
Read 20 tweets
Marco, the Yugo Surfer Profile picture
Jul 8
1/
 Today I want to address the question about, how the #Russia|n troops were prepared for this conflict and how the preparations may look going forwards.
Especially against the background of the accusations, that the Russian troops were badly prepared and that #Ukraine will
2/
 prepare a large army this year and start a large scale counter offensive against #Russia|n troops.
First of all, I can only offer my assumptions, I do NOT have deep insights.
Part 1 --> Russian troops were badly prepared:
Here we have a fundamental problem. When the invasion
3/
 were prepared from January 2021, going forward, I'm sure, the soldiers were NOT informed about the actual invasion plans. And that makes absolutely sense.
Here is why:
It is more likely, that soldiers leak information, then general staff members.
#Ukraine #Russia #Donbass
Read 25 tweets
Marco, the Yugo Surfer Profile picture
Jun 27
1/
 When will #Ukraine fall and what will trigger it?
Some thoughts about strategy:
Many people often discussing why Ukraine is holding on some undefendable places in #Donbass and by doing this, sacrificing a huge quantity of people and material.
The best current example is
2/
 the battle for #Severodonestk and #Lyssytschansk.
Well, of course I do not have inside information, but here are my assumptions.
The #Donbass (and some neighboring oblasts as well) is the industrial center of #Ukraine. From my point of view all Western, and Ukrainian
3/
 intelligence and government institutions know very well, that #Ukraine will fall to #Russia. Therefore the question arose how to make it sustainably as painful as possible for the Russians, and thereby for Ukrainians, which will fall back into the Russian sphere.
Read 24 tweets
Marco, the Yugo Surfer Profile picture
May 29
1/
 Recently I was writing about the strategic military situation in #Ukraine in context to the analysis of #ScottRitter. Today I want to add some more information. Scott is pointing out some "difficulties" that he sees in the #Russia|n military campaign. I want to name them
2/
 and try to explain, why I do not share his concerns. Not because I want to "debunk" something, but I think, Scott is thinking mainly from a military perspective, and that's why it is always not wrong, to add political and economical elements to it.
#Russia #Ukraine #Donbass
3/
 Scott sees the following issues:
1) There is a army being forged out in central/western #Ukraine and in the #EU states as well. Therefore the #Donbass formations buying time for them to be trained and equipped.
2) #Ukraine will get high amounts of money and be flooded by
Read 21 tweets

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