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This is by far the best analysis I have read on the matter. Bottomline is: Russia is too big and a colossal integral part of Europe and EU with all its dysfunctional institutions can‘t hold it together, let alone handle it.
„These divisions in the #EU are precisely what #Putin had hoped for. Convinced that #Europe’s liberal democracies are weak and morally corrupt, the #Russian leader has banked on the assumption that the West’s unity on #Ukraine will crumble and could ultimately break in the coming
months. By playing cat and mouse on gas, creating a world food crisis by blockading the export of #Ukrainian grain through the #BlackSea, and pursuing a scorched-earth strategy in Ukraine, Putin may wager that it is just a matter of time until the West, starting with Europe,…
Read 4 tweets
NEW: Day 156 of #Russian invasion of #Ukraine - "We continue to see #Russia failing...paying a high price for ver little gain" per senior US defense official

But "Russian rhetoric trying to mask these losses" per official, citing comments by Lavrov, others
US has intelligence Russia running at least 18 so-called filtration camps in occupied parts of #Ukraine, with some #Ukrainians being executed, per senior US defense official
"The #Ukrainians are giving it to them pretty good" per senior US military official on #Ukraine progress vs #Russia, per senior US defense official
Read 16 tweets
I want to add some more details about the potential reshaping of European alliances and territories.
Moreover I want to address the question about how #Serbia and #Hungary could survive opposing Western orders.
#Russia #Ukraine #Kiev #Donbass
I was asking myself for some time, since the beginning of the #SMO, how does #Orban, from #Hungary, and #Vucic, from #Serbia, openly withstand the Western pressure, to comply. Why was I curious?
- They can't withstand The West militarily.
- They would be sanctioned to death.
- They are landlocked with hostile #NATO countries (I know, that #Hungary IS NATO)
Under such circumstances you can NOT afford, to not follow Western orders.
How can they do it then?
If we take a look at the map, then I think we can see the answer. See my attached map. Image
Read 8 tweets

EXCLUSIVE UPDATE - 251501Z - 261500Z JULY 22
Following thread will be a breakdown of all Russian Naval Combatants in the following seas


#OSINT #RussiaUkraineWar #RussiaUkraine #russiannavy
#ViceAdmiralZecharin908 and #ValentinPikul770 alongside the port

Single #PJ23040G class AGCR and #RFNYunarmeetsKryma remain in the port

#RFNKasimov remains in the Kerch strait.
#RFNTsikolon missing from IMINT

#AdmiralMakarov494 operating to the west of Crimea. Has line of sight on Odessa from her position.
#RFNGrayvoron operating south of Sevastopol.
#Bykov class vessel operating off Sevastopol.
#SB45 class seagoing tug at anchor off Sevastopol
Read 11 tweets
1/The agreement brokered by Turkey between Russia and Ukraine to open up ports along the Gulf of #Odesa in the #BlackSea cannot work if Russia plans on attacking the ports in question.

There are many hurdles that need to be overcome for this to work.
2/First, the need for the grain is paramount. @unctad has made clear the vital importance of #grain, in particular #wheat, #sunflower, #corn & #barley for nations in Africa.

3/Myself and @johnkonrad was on @CavasShips Podcast to talk about this very topic last week.…
Read 9 tweets

EXCLUSIVE UPDATE - 181501Z - 191500Z JULY 22
Following thread will be a breakdown of all Russian Naval Combatants in the following seas


#OSINT #RussiaUkraineWar #RussiaUkraine #russiannavy
0 units operating

Sole MCM - #ValentinPikul770 alongside the port

Single #PJ23040G class hydrographic vessel and #RFNYunarmeetsKryma836 remain in the port

#RFNSuzdalets remains operating in the Kerch strait.
#RFNTsikolon south of strait
#RopuchaLST's #Korolov130,#Yamal156 and #TsezarKunikov158 conduct logistic support missions from #Sevastopol, to #Feodosia and to #Novorossiysk

#Large contingent of surface ships south of Sevastopol. 2 x #KalibrShooters

#RFNIngushetia630 operating off Crimea (#Kalibr)
Read 11 tweets
NEW: #Russia's #SnakeIsland retreat - "We not believe there is any credence to what Russia is saying, that this is a gesture of good will" per a senior US defense official

Says it is more abt #Ukraine's efforts & use of weapons like #harpoon missiles
#Russia's #SnakeIsland retreat - "It does make it a lot easier to defend #Odesa & in the future to open up those sea lanes" per a senior US defense official
Fighting in the #Donbas is a "grinding war of attrition" per a senior US defense official

Says #Russia has not yet been able to take #Lysychansk or the nearby oil refinery
Read 26 tweets

"When Russia invaded the Ukraine, we were already in the midst of hat we probably could have called a world food crisis anyway" @StateDept Special Envoy for Global Food Security Dr. Cary Fowler tells #EUDFF22

"This is built on top of that..."
"When you look at the current acute crisis that we face, you have to say to yourself & you have to get into the mindset that this is a 3-year crisis" per @StateDept's Fowler

"Short term in this situation does equal 3 years..."
As for grain stuck in #Ukraine, "1 alternative to the #BlackSea ports in Ukraine that we're currently looking at is essentially making use of the Black Sea ports in #Romania itself" per @EU_Commission Deputy Director-General for Agriculture Michael Scannell at #EUDFF22
Read 9 tweets
An ongoing & overdue thread on all things #BlackSea #blockade #grain and 🇺🇦maritime position.

Standard 🇷🇺 position, no need to provide safe passage as the only threat to shipping comes from 🇷🇺. Would give licence to interfere with ships and PR images.…
2. Plans to construct temporary silos in border regions to overcome the bottlenecks caused by the different rail gauges coming in central Europe. Not a universal solution, would provide some relief to the problem.…
3. Nuanced shift and suggestion by 🇹🇷around the hot issue of demining the approaches to 🇺🇦ports. Just create channels rather than complete the time consuming process.
-> not sure how viable this really is given drift mines and would require actual convoying in the areas. Image
Read 125 tweets
Where have efforts to open 🇺🇦#BlackSea ports been going these past few days? Not very far because it's a complex and intractable problem. NBC had a comprehensive article on the #grain issue, worth reading:… .
First mention of a 🇪🇺maritime mission.🇪🇺has run maritime ops before but nothing like this and the idea that 🇹🇷would support it is politically naive. An
🇪🇺 ops would likely depend on a settlement with 🇷🇺first as it alone wouldn't deal with all threats.…
At the other end the robust approach to call 🇷🇺bluff use overwhelming NATO naval forces in some capacity, is there, and Adm Stavridis made that case too.

Leaving aside mines, 🇹🇷, Montreux, insurance logistics etc. there is an issue being overlooked..…
Read 7 tweets
Day 92 of #Russia's war in #Ukraine

Now 110 Russian Battalion Tactical Groups operating in #Ukraine, most in the south of #Ukraine, per a senior US defense official

"We assess that #Russia has made some incremental gains...still is fighting for control of the town of #Lyman"
"We blv that #Russia|n forces have been able to seize most of northeastern #Sievierodonetsk" per a senior US defense official
"No major changes" around #Kharkiv, per a senior US defense official

#Russia|n forces still within about 10km of the Russian border
Read 19 tweets
In April 2022, russia exported by sea from the ports of the #Azov and #BlackSea at least 10,900,000 tons of oil and petroleum products, including the physical volume of crude oil - about 8,500,000 tons (78%). - Black Sea News report
The physical volume of exports of petroleum products - about 2,400,000 tons (22%).
The value of this bloody April oil is estimated at about $ 7.4 bln. This amount of export revenue of the aggressor country is approximately equal to the value of 1,090 cruise missiles "Caliber"
Our conclusion: based on a comparison of maritime exports of oil and petroleum products from the russian ports of the #BlackSea and #AzovSea for the last decade of March 2022 and the average for the decade in April 2022 we can say:
Read 4 tweets
🧵We are a group of volunteers exploring existing and non-conventional options for moving #Ukrainian #grains, #wheat and #agricultural products into the #European #Railway Network for distribution to EU #Export terminals, primarily, but not exclusively on the #Danube Waterway.
Why, what's stopping this?

Similar to @Apple, @Microsoft or @Android Operating Systems, #Ukraine's and #Europe's #trains, #locomotives & #wagons operate on physically different track widths.

While having similar functionalities, they don't "play well with each other".
Specifically, a Ukrainian train cannot travel on a European railway (track) and European trains cannot travel on Ukrainian railways.

The width, called "Gauge", between rails is different. Ukrainian is 1520mm wide, while European is 1435mm.
Read 21 tweets
"We don't have any indication of the use of lasers...weaponized lasers" by #Russia in #Ukraine, per @PentagonPresSec

...this despite Russian claims its used a new generation of lasers to counter drones
US assesses #Russia is behind where it wants to be as far as progress in the #Donbas, w/Russian progress slow, uneven, per @PentagonPresSec

Says every day there are "hamlets towns and villages that are changing hands" between Russia & #Ukraine
US @SecDef Lloyd Austin to virtually host meeting of the #Ukraine Contact Group this coming Monday - more than 40 nations expected to take part, per @PentagonPresSec
Read 10 tweets
ICYMI: #Britain's @DefenceHQ says #Russia "has fired senior commanders who are considered to have performed poorly during the opening stages of its invasion of #Ukraine"
Per #Britain's @DefenceHQ:

- LtGen Serhiy Kisel, who commanded the elite 1st Guards Tank Army, suspended for failing to capture #Kharkiv

- VAdm Igor Osipov, who commanded #Russia’s #BlackSea Fleet, likely suspended
#Britain's @DefenceHQ warns #Russia's Vladimir #Putin may be losing faith in Russian Chief of the General Staff Valeriy Gerasimov

"Gerasimov likely remains in post, but it is unclear whether he retains the confidence of Pres. Putin"
Read 5 tweets
Day 84 of #Russia's war in #Ukraine

Russia making some "incremental progress in the direction of the #BlackSea" near #Kherson & #Mikolayiv, per a senior US defense official

Russian also making some progress in #Donetsk
#Russia|n progress overall "fairly limited...a few kilometers maybe every day" per a senior US defense official
#Russia|n military offensives becoming smaller, more localized - US seeing "a shrinking of their offensives & their goals...using smaller units" per a senior US defense official
Read 9 tweets
Day 82 of #Russia-#Ukraine - Fight focused on the #Donbas w/both sides exchanged artillery fire

"They [#Russia] did not make significant territorial gains..." per a senior US defense official
NEW: US seeing heavy fighting in #Donetsk w/#Russia making small gains to the west, per a senior US defense official

Could be an attempt to link up with other Russian forces
"No progress" on #Russia|n attempts to cross #Donetsk River, per a senior US defense official

"They have been stymied, just about every effort"
Read 18 tweets
Unconfirmed : SURRENDERED: in #Azovstal
US General Eric Olson
British Lieutenant Colonel John Bailey
4 #NATO military instructors.
There is news of Canadian French Turkish officers still hiding inside tunnels
#SnakeIsland #Mariupol #Donbass #Ukraine @WIONews #Kiev @foxnews
Whereabouts of this US army Major General Roger Cloutier is not known , he was last seen in #Mariupol
US Admiral Eric Olson (Highly decorated special ops commander born in #Tacoma , Wa USA

@Ukraine @GeneralBakshi @WIONews #UkraineRussiaWar #Ukraine #Kiev #SnakeIsland #BlackSea #Donbass #Britain #Eurovision
@TulsiGabbard @RandPaul
Read 3 tweets
What the Ship?
May 12, 2022

1️⃣ #Shipping Stocks Tumble
2️⃣ Roll-on/Roll-off Insurance Increases
3️⃣ @ilwulongshore Contract Renegotiation
4️⃣ Impact of #BlackSea Maritime War
5️⃣ #Diesel Costs Increase in Northeast US

1️⃣ Shipping stocks take another beating, sinking by double digits

H/T @GMJournalist @FreightWaves…
2️⃣Car Import Costs May Rise As Marine Insurance Report Warns Of RORO Risk

H/T @business…
Read 6 tweets
NEW: #Russia invasion of #Ukraine - Russian ground forces making "slow and uneven" in #Donbas, w/airstrikes ongoing there & in #Mariupol, per a senior US defense official

"Limited stand-off strikes" near #Odesa, official adds
#Russia increased # of sorties to over 300 in past 24 hours, per a senior US defense official
Towns & villages changing hands still - "There's a lot of back and forth" per a senior US defense official
Read 20 tweets
The "big" story of the day, for those who like their propaganda orchestrated, was a meeting ostensibly celebrating the Communist Youth League.

Communism and youth were conspicuous by their absence

Li Keqiang, the number two man in China, looks sad.
#xi #li ImageImageImageImage
In foreign news, Snake Island is one long slithering story.
CCTV uses official Ukraine defense footage to bolster Russia's victorious explanation of helicopters and boats being shot in action.

"Russia Defense Ministry says Russia defeated Ukraine's plan to seize the island." ImageImageImageImage
Strangely enough, it's Lukashenko rather than Putin who stars in this diatribe against "democracy" shown on today's program covering Europe's May 9th commemoration of WW2 victory.
#may9th #putin #lukashenko Image
Read 14 tweets
Citing the previous tweet
and adding more information hoping to help get a clear panoramic on increasing #foodprices and the increasingly looming narrative of #recession 👇
A massive backlog of #grains is piling up in #Ukraine to the tune of nearly 25 million tons due to "#infrastructure challenges" and blocked #ports in the #BlackSea, including #Mariupol - @Reuters reports 📰…
#Ukraine was the fourth-largest corn exporter in the 2020/21 season and the sixth-largest #wheat exporter in the world, according to the #IGC (International #Grains Council).…
Read 18 tweets
Russia deploys 6 ships, 2 submarines near #Ukraine in Black Sea.

Ukraine’s Operational Command South reported on May 8 that the ships are combat-ready and equipped with over 50 cruise missiles.
#Odessa #SnakeIsland #BlackSea #VictoryDay
Aftermath of a Russian missile strike in #Odessa, reportedly on NATO agents inside a hotel.
#Ukraine #VictoryDay #VictoryDayParade
#Mariupol #SnakeIsland
The Russian Aerospace Forces, during a special military operation, destroyed the "Grigory Kuropyatnikov" corvette ship of the Ukrainian Marine Guard near #Odessa region.

#VictoryDay #mariupol #Azovstal #UkraineRussianWar #Ukraine #Kiev #SnakeIsland
Read 4 tweets
The Surge of “Little Green Men,” and Metal is Poised to Strike – Part 5 - The world is closer to witnessing the use of some type of #NuclearWeapons due to war in the Ukraine than during the Cuban Missile Crisis in 1962 - by @TraderStef #TacticalNukes #WW3… Image
#LittleGreenMen #Russia #Ukraine #NATO #War - #TacticalNukes - a bunch of high-ranking Russian military suits were taken out by a Ukrainian hit in #Izium
Read 120 tweets

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