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Rick Palacios Jr. Profile picture
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Aug 15 • 20 tweets • 9 min read
Home price trends across 20 top housing markets. Pace of price increases moderating (left chart), which you can see in our underlying home price index flattening out or actually falling in a few markets (right chart). Start it off with #Atlanta.
#Austin home prices
#Boise home prices
#Charlotte home prices
#Chicago home prices
#Dallas home prices
#Denver home prices
#Houston home prices
#LasVegas home prices
#LosAngeles home prices
#Miami home prices still going vertical.
#Nashville home prices
#Orlando home prices
#Phoenix home prices
#Sacramento home prices
#SanAntonio home prices
#SanJose home prices
#Seattle home prices
#Tampa home prices
#WashingtonDC home prices

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More from @RickPalaciosJr

Rick Palacios Jr. Profile picture
Aug 2
Apartment transaction market appears to be in price discovery phase. Bid/ask wider as highly leveraged buyers take a breather. Asset values down ~5% to 15% and cap rates up ~50 to 100 basis points based on earnings commentary last week...
Mid-America: “~40 bps change in cap rates last 2 to 3 months. Majority of fallout related to higher levered buyers pulling back & buyers with shorter-term time horizons pulling out of market. Assets not well located or inherent issue could see [cap rates off 75 to 100 bps].”
AvalonBay: “Last couple months there's been a shift in transaction market. Cap rates up 50 bps. Definitely deals not transacting, particularly if they were targeted more to highly levered buyers. In terms of overall asset values, maybe down 5% to 10%.”
Read 8 tweets
Rick Palacios Jr. Profile picture
Jul 18
Home builder market share dynamics are worth paying attention to as housing demand softens. Couple builders known for resetting the market on price are now lion’s share in many geographies, not just Tampa (shown below).
National home builder market share concentration at the top has grown quite a bit in recent years.
Publicly traded home builders are now 42% of entire new home market, up from 23% in 2001. A lot of this is mergers and acquisitions, but definitely a different market share backdrop.
Read 4 tweets
Rick Palacios Jr. Profile picture
Jul 11
June home builder sentiment and survey results are in. Top themes: 1) A lot more new home buyers cancelling. 2) Price cuts becoming fairly common. 3) Drop in demand finally cooling construction cost pressures (builder layoffs also happening). Market commentary to follow…
#Atlanta builder: “Someone turned out the lights on our sales in June!”
#Austin builder: “Sales have fallen off a cliff. We’re selling 1/3 of what we sold in March and April. Trades are more willing to negotiate pricing since market has adjusted significantly past 60 days.”
Read 22 tweets
Rick Palacios Jr. Profile picture
Jun 8
May homebuilder survey results published last week. Top themes: 1) Builder metrics quickly deteriorating across the board. 2) Price cuts on standing ‘speculative’ inventory accelerating. 3) Buyer incentives are back. Market commentary to follow…
#Austin builder: “Some parts of town where finished homes are now taking a month to sell versus hours. Market is definitely correcting. Incentives are back and seeing some builders cutting prices on inventory.”
#Baltimore builder: “Customers now mentioning potential reduction in prices and/or increase in incentives.”
Read 23 tweets
Rick Palacios Jr. Profile picture
May 20
Seeing ripple effects of rising rates reverberate across housing market. Starts with entry-level buyers (already slowing).
Move-up buyer also showing signs of slowing. Home equity rich helps offset 5%+ mortgage rate shock, but need a buyer to sell/move-up in market (often an entry-level buyer), that's now pulling back.
Luxury, second home, and vacation buyers also pulling back. Discretionary purchase and sensitive to overall investment portfolio/broader economic shifts (not great currently).
Read 4 tweets
Rick Palacios Jr. Profile picture
May 9
April homebuilder survey results are here. Top themes: 1) Demand is slowing, namely entry-level due to payment shock. 2) Investors are pulling back. 3) Ripple effect of rising rates starting to hit move-up market. Market commentary to follow…
#Dallas builder: “Interest lists are shrinking or buyers are truly pausing.”
#Houston builder: “Many first-time buyers simply no longer qualify with the increase in interest rates, as their debt-to-income ratio gets out of whack.”
Read 29 tweets

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