Demilitarization of 🇷🇺army goes on. Two new attacks on 🇷🇺 air basis and arms depots, namely in Dzhankoy and near #Symferopol, capital of 🇺🇦Autonomous Republic of #Crimea, occupied by #Russia since 2014. Some thoughts on significance of these attacks and recents blasts in Crimea🧵
1)Crimea doesn’t differ from military targets in occupied parts of Kherson, Zaporizhzhya or Donbas. It’s NOT Russian territory, just another occupied part of 🇺🇦. RU is shocked (both Kremlin and citizens), that Crimea isn’t untouchable for UA. 2/
2) Political effect of these attacks is even much bigger than military. Crimea must be returned to UA, #Russia must withdraw. UA loudly said after 24.02, that it will struggle for deoccupation of its entire territory. Now we see practical implementation of this goal. 3/
3) Ukraine has strong staff for special operations, including those in enemy’s hinterland. Enforced by skilled partisan network, this highly-professional special missions’ elite makes RU nervous and shows that RU Federal Security Service (FSB) is overestimated. 4/
4) Russians, who settled in Crimea after occupation, are massively trying to leave the peninsula. And that’s another fundamental shift: destruction of idea that Putin’s system, RU army and power of the state are omnipotent. And…⬇️ 5/
5) Idea that there will be no victory will be strengthening among ordinary Russians, at least in bordering with UA regions. Delegitimization of dictators always starts like that. 6/
6) Overall, Ukraine has made another “impossible” thing: made it clear that Russian “red lines” drawn on 🇺🇦sovereign map is nothing to us, we fight for independence in borders of 1991 7/

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More from @Mariia_Zolkina

Jul 21
🧵I am waiting for the publication of the text of the "grain" agreement tomorrow.
❗️But it is already clear today: we have not received real mechanisms to guarantee the safety of Ukrainian ports. Such mechanisms could at least be: 1/
- the presence of foreign (in this case – Turkish) warships. Russia would hardly dare to attack our ports in this situation. Now it looks like Turkish ships will most likely be either at the entrance/exit of these sea corridors, or if near Ukrainian ports, then not stationary. 2/
This seemingly technical detail actually solves everything. Let's see where the Turkish ships end up. 3/
Read 10 tweets
Jun 24
⚡️#Sievierodonetsk doesn’t exist anymore. 🇺🇦soldiers started leaving the city in organized manner. It’s not possible to hide and fight effectively there.121 days of incredible and professional defense despite quantity superiority of the enemy. What is important here?1/
1) Army of #Russia can proceed only by complete destruction of the areas. Tactics is simple as “scorched land”. They couldn’t win in terms of tactics and planning. That is why less numerous units were standing firmly against so called “2d army” for more than 4 months. 2/
2) #Ukraine has 3 main goals: keep the land, keep the army and exhaust #Russia’s army up to maximum. Battle for #Sievierodonetsk was more and more about exhausting RU skilled human resources last weeks. And now it is about saving #UAarmy units, who are our main resource. 3/
Read 9 tweets
Jun 3
🧵#100daysofwar. They said, #Ukraine would fall in max.3 days, but we surprised the whole world. Maneuvering defense, sophisticated tactics, top-level military skills. Huge motivation and spirit in the army and society. In this 🧵 some major conclusions so far 1/
Military summing up:
1A)#Russia failed in majority of attacks: #Kyiv, Sumy, Kharkiv, Chernihiv, Odesa, Mykolayiv.
1B) RU “success” in major part of #Luhansk region isn’t due to RU offensive, but rather bcs of tactical step back of #UAarmy. 2/
1C) Where UA army seriously fought in Luhansk obl (#Sievierodonetsk, Popasna, Rubizhne), Russians can’t take the towns for 3 months already!
Their only tactics is to destroy city to zero (Popasna, #Rubizhne), to occupy this empty land 3/ #ArmUkraineNow
Read 13 tweets
May 31
Some more thoughts on meaning of RU oil embargo: 1) economic calculations are not the main issue. It is political breakage of “business as usual” with #Russia. The most sensitive area starts being covered by sanctions. Strategic turn from energy dependence is being started. 1/
2) “Steel” schemes appeared to be flexible. #EU changes its politics, business in areas, which were untouchable before. 3) RU isn’t a reliable partner anymore. The sooner this dependence from RU ends, the safer for the EU. This approach slowly, but irreversibly shapes reality 2/
3) #Ukraine will raise its weight in energy (and not only) negotiations, cause southern part of #Druzhba pipeline goes through 🇺🇦 territory to all 3 countries, excluded from ban on oil embargo: #Hungary, #Slovakia and #CzechRepublic. 3/
Read 6 tweets
May 28
This THREAD is for those, who doesn’t know precisely, how myth about “separatism” in #Donbas appeared in 2014. It was invasion of #Russia and occupation with only difference from now – RU troops were without insignia. Here are some numbers on public opinion. #StopRussiaNOW 1/
March 2014. #Russia has already captured administrative buildings in #Luhansk and Donetsk and organized “protests” around them. They already had weapons and first killing of UA activists happened. Meanwhile Ukrainians continued to go out and protest. 2/
In 03/2014 @dem_initiatives made national public opinion poll about possible “separatism”. 89% in Donbas considered UA to be homeland. Both “independence” of #Donbas or its accession to another country were not popular at all. No widespread separatism! dif.org.ua/article/chi-vl… 3/
Read 13 tweets
May 26
🧵#Russia is continuing attack using no sophisticated tactics: just burn everything out using its domination in artillery and air bombardment. Goal is clear: push stronger to prevent some Western states from sending heavy weapons to 🇺🇦 and make them think about negotiations. ⬇️
Now its a turning point for several states: large weapons supply will make UA definitely win. We lack only offensive weapons in needed quantities. Some on the West still have to make final decision: send it and defeat #Russia completely, or not send and use half-measures 2/
The latter mean fear and lack of understanding, what to do with defeated (and collapsing afterwards) #Russia. But half-measures don’t work this time. It’s not 2014. UA military victory now is the only key to predictable regional and Europe-wide security. 3/
Read 4 tweets

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