Thread by @AliBakeer

🧵🧵Thread:

1️⃣ I go against most analyst concerning the interpretation of the latest statements from #Turkish officials on the #Syria|n issue. Here are some of the points:

➡️ I don't believe these statements are directed towards #Assad regime rather than #Russia

2️⃣

➡️ #Moscow can block/ hinder #Tukiye's anticipated military op. #Putin pressured #Turkiye to contact #Assad to resolve the issue in the North

➡️ Türkiye is showing #Russia that it is trying but Assad is not committed to resolve any of the serious issues in #Syria

3️⃣

➡️ #Turkiye wil tell #Russia later: either you pressure #Assad or we launch op

➡️ 🇹🇷's communication w Assad Intel ws a result of pressure from Russia. It didn't prevent 🇹🇷 though from launching military ops or targeting regime. It ws designed 2 withdraw any objection frm 🇷🇺

4️⃣

➡️ But 4 the sake of argument, let's assume #Türkiye wants reconciliation w #Assad,he should give something in return, right? So "What can Assad offer"?
- Fight #YPG?
- Allow #refugees to return w protection guarantees?
- Progress in the transition?
- New const. & free elec?

5️⃣

➡️ The obvious answer to all these pts is that he can't offer anything. Fighting #YPG might put him vs #US at best, not to mention that he created them & will always use them. He can't take refugees & they won't go back as long as he is here. All other pts wil end his regime

6️⃣

➡️ One thing #Assad regime can do is 2nicely ask #YPG 2 withdraw & fill their posts w regime members. But this is far frm fighting #terrorism or securing #Turkiye's interest. Assad would b able 2use YPG vs 🇹🇷 anytime. I would b surprised if 🇹🇷ish officials fall in2 this trap

7️⃣

➡️ There is also an internal angle for the latest statements of the #Turkish officials on #Syria. Elections will be held soon & the Turkish opposition have been using the refugees card and #Syria issue in a very mean & cheap way. #Erdogan is trying to pull this card from them