Thread by @Ordakazakhstan_

❗️LONG THREAD ❗️
Anti-Russian sanctions. What does #Kazakhstan lose and gain?

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For six months now, #Russia has been conducting their so-called "special military operation" on the territory of #Ukraine, the purpose of which, according to the Russian General Staff, is the "denazification and demilitarization" of the country.
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From the very beginning of the war, many #Sanctions have been imposed against Russia, which in one way or another have affected the economies of Russia and Kazakhstan. But, what does Kazakhstan lose and gain from anti-Russian sanctions?
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How anti-Russian sanctions affected Kazakhstanis

In May 2022, the BISAM Central Asia Center for Sociological and Marketing Research conducted a survey on the impact of anti-Russian sanctions on residents of Kazakhstan.
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astanatimes.com/2022/07/sancti…

A thousand people took part in the survey: Kazakhstanis from 18 to 65 years of age with different levels of income. The largest cities of Kazakhstan were surveyed: Almaty, Nur-Sultan, Shymkent, Karaganda, Taraz, Ust-Kamenogorsk, Kostanay and Aktobe.
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The effects of sanctions are felt most strongly by 50% of respondents aged 18-35, and the same assessment is given by 57% of respondents aged 46-55 and 65% of respondents aged 56-65, respectively. Thus, the older the respondents, the more they feel the negative impact.
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Men and women have different views on the impact of sanctions on the republic. 23.7% of women and 19.4% of men rate “very strong”, and 33% of women and 28.4% of men rate the influence of sanctions as “quite strong".
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At the same time, the majority noted an increase in prices for both food and non–food products - 83% and 67% of respondents think so, respectively.
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Of all the respondents, only 5% of Kazakhstanis did not feel the negative impact of sanctions. It follows from the percentage ratio that the sanctions against Russia have affected every family in Kazakhstan to one degree or another.
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When oil is dearer than friendship

Officially, Russia and Kazakhstan have good neighborly relations. Recent meetings of representatives of the states in Sochi and Cholpon-Ata indicate the existence of a dialogue between partners in the Eurasian Union.
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As part of the 30th anniversary of relations between Russia and Kazakhstan, President Tokayev noted the absence of “grounds for pessimistic forecasts” between the countries,../11
tengrinews.kz/kazakhstan_new…

..while at a recent meeting in Cholpon-Ata, Prime Minister Alikhanov and Prime Minister Mishustin spoke about fruitful cooperation - in particular, in the creation and implementation of common programs on import substitution.
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forbes.kz/news/2022/08/2…

However, after the start of a special military operation and the imposition of sanctions, changes began to occur in relations between Russia and Kazakhstan.
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According to Stephen Blank, a specialist on Russia and the former USSR, since February 2022, Kazakhstan has begun to pursue a policy of neutrality regarding the military operation, while expressing a refusal to provide military assistance to Russia.
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trendsresearch.org/insight/kazakh…

Without joining the anti-Russian sanctions, the KZ authorities allowed pro-Ukrainian demonstrations and opened collection points for humanitarian aid to Ukraine.
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Retaliatory measures were not long in coming. In late June – early July 2022, the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) temporarily suspended the transportation of KZ #Oil.
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Officially, the CPC suspended work due to damage to loading terminals caused by the storm. However, this may be due to the position of Kazakhstan and President Tokayev regarding Russia's military operations.
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But on July 12, 2022, the Yuzhnokrasnodar court granted the CPC appeal after the district court ordered the oil transporter to stop work.
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KZ oil continued to flow through the CPC to #Europe, but the initial decision prompted President Tokayev to look for new routes for exporting Kazakh energy resources.
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According to Reuters, from September 2022, part of Kazakhstan's oil will be delivered to Europe through Azerbaijan's largest pipeline leading to the Mediterranean port of Ceyhan. The volume will be 1.5 million tons of Kazakh oil per year.
reuters.com/business/energ…
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Interestingly, Energy Minister Bolat Akchakulov explained that the pipeline will mainly deliver “surplus" Kazakh oil. It is not known how true the statements of Minister Akchakulov are.
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astanatimes.com/2022/08/kazakh…

Indeed, quite recently 2/3 of Kazakhstan's black gold was delivered through the Novorossiysk CPC.
Moreover, in a recent telephone conversation with Charles Michel, President of the European Council, President Tokayev spoke about increasing the export of Kazakh oil to Europe.
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trtworld.com/magazine/can-e…

Russian business moves to Kazakhstan

At the end of August 2022, more than 250 companies are relocating from Russia to Kazakhstan.
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According to the country's Prime Minister Alikhan Smailov, these are Western companies, mostly representing the non-resource sector of the economy. 45 out of 250 have already made the transition to the Kazakh market.
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bfm.ru/news/507481

However, according to Oleg Moseev, the head of the project “Automarketologist” and previously headed the Association of Russian Automotive Leaders, relocation is not always successful.
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See the link above.

The sale of cars has become somewhat more complicated, since cars are first sold to a person with a Kazakhstan passport, who then sells to a Russian.
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Although this procedure allows Russians to make car deals, the relocation of Skoda and Volkswagen remains a matter of time, since not all brands want to leave the Russian market.
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Since the import of Russian cars and auto parts has sharply decreased, and the relocation of automobile companies is facing difficulties, Chinese cars have begun to flood Kazakhstan.
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eurasianet.org/chinese-cars-c…

Already in mid-August, Astana Motors announced that Changan cars would soon appear in its dealerships. Now one of the most popular cars in the country is Chery, produced by the Chinese carmaker Chery Automobile.
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New opportunities for Kazakhstan

The regional manager of DB Bank NBP Kazakhstan JSC, Muhammad Rafik, believes that anti-Russian sanctions and the deterioration of Russia's relations with the West can give Kazakhstan new opportunities.
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astanatimes.com/2022/08/kazakh…

Since sanctions have significantly blocked the EU's access to Asian markets through Russia, supply chains are already moving south, including through the Caspian Sea. According to the expert, prices and duties for supplies in the Caspian Sea are lower than in the Suez Canal.
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In the first half of 2022, a record cargo turnover was already recorded in the Caspian ports of Kazakhstan. Cargo transportation through the inland water transport infrastructure jumped to 433.8 million tenge (907,530 US dollars), which is more than 5 times more than the../32

..same period in 2021.

Thanks to the expansion of exports, in 2022 Kazakhstan also increased the supply of wheat and flour to #China, #Türkiye, #Azerbaijan, #Pakistan, #Georgia, #Iran, and #EU countries.
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“More and more investors are starting to consider the country as an attractive destination for direct investment” – this is how Marks Smith, Chairman of the European Business Association of Kazakhstan, assessed the economic situation in Kazakhstan.
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The anti-Russian sanctions have put Kazakhstan in a difficult position.
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On the one hand, the economic pressure on Russia “latched" its unforgiving grip onto Kazakhstan, which is why part of the population felt the negative effects of sanctions, and the political elite began to look for new ways to trade and do business.
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On the other hand, anti-Russian sanctions and the neutral position of the leadership of the Republic of Kazakhstan allowed the attracting of many companies, and with them investments and the creation of new jobs in Kazakhstan.
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This has a positive effect on the image of Kazakhstan: in fact, while being in the crossfire, the country maintains internal peace and stability.
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But by continuing to pursue a multi-vector policy, Kazakhstan will inevitably face new challenges. Kazakhstan needs to be catious, by trying to maintain normal relations with Russia and, at the same time, get along with the Western world.
/END

orda.kz/antirossijskie…
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