1/
This thread is about the fall off #Balakliia. Also about the #Russia|n bloggers and commentators that are seeing now the end coming and that everything is lost. Who calls for general mobilisation and use of nuclear weapons. This pisses me off, so that I, AGAIN, am forced
2/
to interrupt my Twitter pause. If it goes on like this, I'll delete my account again, to have my peace 🤣😅
Okay. First of all... Everything is okay. There is no panic among the #Russia|ns or their leadership. Why?
#Balakliya is a buffer area for the bigger Russian formations
3/
around #Izyum. You always need buffer areas around strategically important assets to be able to maneuver and apply mobile defense, if needed in the depth.
Now unfortunately #Balakliya did, what buffer areas do... Buy time and buffer off the first shock of an assault.
4/
#Russia had the time to activate its prepared defence plans and to transfer reserves and equipment to defend the actual strategic assets.
Yesterday I already hinted, that #Balakliya might fall and now it did. Surprise...
The military will keep fighting on all other fronts, as
5/
they did until now. Especially the offensive operations in #Donbass continues as always. Absolutely calmness.
Okay, second. This of course is not insignificant. #Balakliya had some importance as well and many #Russia|ns died, while absorbing the first assault.
6/
We need to honor this fallen soldiers, by being professional and wishing their families the best and not crying around like pussies that everything is lost.
After the frontline stabilises here the following will be achieved.
#Ukraine will have lost the most experienced
7/
and well trained soldiers, as well as the best left equipment. For what? I wrote yesterday a thread about the military value of the counter offensive. But of course there is a political as well. The money donation show in #Rammstein, #Germany.
8/
Keep in mind. #Ukraine is experiencing every day such a #Balakliya. Sometimes even more then one, per day. So if Balakliya is bad for #Russia, then it means in turn, that Ukraine is absolutely DONE!
Keep calm, everything is good. As long as you don't see the Russian leadership
9/
panicking around, everything is ok.
Sit back, wait a few days and watch how #Russia's buffered mobile defense strategy, for #Izyum unfolds and ends the existence of #Ukraine's army in this area.
Especially the Russian response when the last Nazi was killed in this offensive.

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More from @YugoSurfer

Sep 11
1/
Since many people asking why #Russia is still running a #SMO (Special military operation) and does not transform it into formal war and mobilises, I want to deliver some answers. #Ukraine is a small piece in the big geopolitical game, to end the Western hegemony over the world
2/
#Russia has dared to openly challenge the Western system (empire/colonization of most countries of the world, called globalization) and to show to the world, that it can withstand everything, the West can throw against it. This is not enough, Russia even want's to show, to its
3/
#BRICS partners, with which it wants to redefine the world order, that it can handle the Western retaliation measures (economical and militarily in #Ukraine) with ease. Why? To brag? No! To show, that every nation, that wants to join the future free world, can be safe
Read 20 tweets
Sep 11
1/
Some thoughts about the military perspective about what just happened in #Izyum / #Kharkov.
First let's talk about Kharkov in general. This region was very poorly defended by #Ukraine|ians the last few months. #Russia took the initiative and started a pinning operation.
2/
This was executed with very few troops as well, because more wasn't needed for the degree of resistance in this place. The goal of a pinning and holding operation is, to draw #Ukraine|ian troops away from other important frontline section, just to defend this "unimportant"
3/
area. This was very successful. A nice side effect of this pinning operation was, that #Russia gained ever more ground around #Kharkov city itself, which is a good starting point for future offensive operations. Since #Ukraine was forced to split its forces between Kharkov
Read 24 tweets
Sep 10
1/
The situation is an absolut smoking pile of shit.
From a military point of view it is manageable. Why?
#Russia pulls back and doesn't allow #Ukraine to destroy its valuable formations. The other way around Ukraine is losing manpower and equipment as never before.
Look at my
2/
quoted thread. Yes, #Ukraine achieved a big victory, but it is pyrrhic. Ukraine will have nothing left, after this massacre (full frontal assault without air cover).
Look my threads.
#Kharkov was a pinning operation and therefore a weak spot. #NATO exploited it by maximum
3/
impact.
Congratulations.
#Russia rightly retreated to safe its troops. She will come back. So nothing is lost. But it is a setback. A big setback because of #Izyum, which is the key to #Slavyansk.
From a human perspective it is even more disastrous. All the civilians left
Read 4 tweets
Sep 9
1/
Little math exercise here:
#Ukraine is pushing in #Kharkov with x troops and y reinforcements in the back. Also with z pieces of equipment. With this force they pushed into a certain area. The #Russia|ns has the same xyz. Due to technological superiority Russia is degrading
2/
#Ukraine's xyz far quicker then the other way around. Especially the Y (reinforcements) gets degraded by air- and missile strikes. Those are forces you need to push into the battle, to compensate the losses of the X (strike formations). This losses are huge, since they are in
3/
offensive against a technologically superior and defending enemy. #Russia's xyz is dramatically fast growing by the hour, as we speak, since Russia of course has activated the contingency plan, that is prepared for such a scenario. Until then the buffer around #Izyum needs to
Read 6 tweets
Sep 7
1/
Today I want to put into perspective the Ukraine counter-offensive with the whole strategic picture of the #SMO. Thereby I will discuss potential goals of #Ukraine and possible consequences, executed by #Russia.
I want to start my analysis with two quotes.
#Kiev #Donbass
2/
Quote 1 from Clausewitz: "War is the continuation of politics by other means".
Quote 2 from Scott Ritter: "By not losing, #Ukraine is winning this war. By not achieving the stated goals, #Russia is losing this war".
Keep this in mind during the reading of my analysis.
3/
What could be the political goals of #Ukraine (its Western backers)? To survive as a state, that has borders as close as possible to #Moscow and other big #Russia|n cities. (As we all know, the West gives a shit about Ukraine, its people and economy etc.)
#Kiev #NATO #Donbass
Read 28 tweets
Aug 12
1/
Some thoughts about the #Turkey membership in #NATO, its relationship with The West and the prospect of how it might going forwards.
Especially considering the problems with The West over #Russia, #Finland and #Sweden.
#greatdecoupling
2/
With #Erdogan in power, it is similar to #Russia's #Putin and his #Russia. #Turkiye got a leader that is only seeking the best results for his people. At the beginning the best development of Turkiye might have been a close relationship with The West. Yes.
3/
But the circumstances changed.
The first very heavy and deep blow in the relationship was the coup, that took place against #Erdogan, that was staged by #NATO. Erdoğan was saved by #Russia|n information, that he got several hours in advance. It was the first and major trigger
Read 10 tweets

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