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Sep 16 8 tweets 3 min read
Where do we go? Down, of course.
#Cryptocurrency Market/#Bitcoin Market Analysis 9/15
So, our big bearish channel trend got confirmed. tradingview.com/x/mLp5u6eS/ Nothing has changed outside of that, really.
#CPI is slightly bearish #PPI is bearish, #quadruple witching is tomorrow. Looks like people dumped close to a billion dollars of $BTC a couple days ago, and over 5 billion since August.
Everything shows that basically crypto is having a liquidity crisis. People don't realize the entire hodl model was to add liquidity to crypto, but crypto is hostile to liquidity anyway (burns, buybacks, deflationary metrics).
Surprise: doesn't work. Post $ETH merge is unsurprisingly bearish. Number goes down. tradingview.com/x/L81rcJuA/
Even short term $SPX looks ready to test 3600 ish, about another 10% down - which should be 30%+ for crypto. tradingview.com/x/ExMQmwfi/
Not much to say, just same old stuff. Any pump is short lived and the real recession will hit q4/q1 2023, most likely. $DXY continues to moon because duh. tradingview.com/x/jpFfPcd2/
This sort of $DXY implies we could have a solid few years for that to correct. Even a short term correction just confirms bullishness unless we return to 4/2021 (peak btc) levels, which doesn't look even remotely likely.

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More from @nap_trader

Sep 17
1/ Expanding the Macro - a Treatise on what I see
#macro #market analysis 9/17
So first thing I want to point out, is the divergence between wishful @binance $BTC weekend price and #CME's. Just to knock out crypto quickly - here's the weekend divergence. tradingview.com/x/usR93lCv/
2/ There's 3 ways it goes, but in *decreasing* order of likeliness. 1: we return to that gap to then pick a direction, 2: we tap it for a second upon open tomorrow (18 hours from now) and then continue upwards, or 3: we leave a gap that we fill on 9/21 #FOMC
3/ is $ETH in the same boat? You bet. So that's #crypto for the weekend, for anyone following. Lots of caveats can be applied here to add additional analysis tradingview.com/x/ipsp0FQs/
Read 16 tweets
Sep 16
Friday Fudgery
#Cryptocurrency Market / #Bitcoin Market analysis 9/16
I'm using the words lightly there, but I hope it's quite clear. As it's a quadruple witching friday, I watched trades basically evaporate. It was kind of a mess.
$SPY went up and down all day, thus $BTC as well. tradingview.com/x/Jt1R0JzH/ Notice distinctly how the $BTC responses are slower, because that's what I want to call attention to.
Remember when I talked about billions in liquidity exiting the market faster than sand falls through someone's hand? This is the result. There's nobody trading crypto and so the prices can't really move.
Read 7 tweets
Sep 12
We are real-time witnessing #Russian collapse
#Cryptocurrency #Market/#Bitcoin Market Analysis 9/12
So, I warned in my quarterly Macro - that I see Russia collapse coming. And I mean, the entire country. This means: even the Russians don't want to serve anymore after the rout.
Read 9 tweets
Sep 11
Technically Bullish, but for how long? 🤷
#Cryptocurrency Market/#Bitcoin Analysis 9/11
So, I guess we're bullish for now. Let me add emphasis again: *FOR NOW*. 4H crossups are significant headwind for at least even short term bullishness. Follow the market.
Macro things: #Ukraine has crushed the F out of #Russia and may have turned the war. So all those macro scenarios are going to come into play very soon, be it bullish or bearish - someone is going to make a move.
Powell spoke 9/8 and basically said we're going to tackle inflation + regulation crypto- , so that alone tells you this is not a bullish market time.
Read 15 tweets
Sep 10
Now comes the real market moves, catalysts are set . How to safely navigate what's to come! ⚠ 
Quarterly Global Market Analysis 9/10 -
This one is going to be big, macro, and significant. Multiple things are happening.
We have a lot of things in flux, and this is a time people are scared. It's time to focus. Not time to open your wallet, nope. But to be prepared for all possible situations ahead of us. Focuses: $CL $SPX $BTC #Ruble $RUBUSD
First, #Russia is screwed and #Ukraine made an extremely significant and successful military play. I've been writing on the professional side about how significant this is, but it cannot be understated the impact of these two countries.
Read 21 tweets
Sep 10
ES Short Squeeze - Stock market lookin good, Crypto....eh.
#Cryptocurrency #Market/#Bitcoin market analysis 9/9
So, there was a short squeeze. A really, really big one. A lot of weird crap happened, but a lot of people keep looking in the wrong place.
Why? Because it's the $SPY that gapped up on it's futures, not some magic $BTC move as BTC follows the SPY these days. tradingview.com/x/THGgHIdC/
Notice the $ES moving up here, hours before BTC follows. Why would anyone wait for this or even care? But I digress, that's not what we're here for. How is all that doing anyway?
Read 16 tweets

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