A thread – Our takeaways from the Dallas Fed Energy Survey (and how sentiment has changed from prior surveys)
Costs: Expected Finding & Development costs have slowed. Only 66% of Oil & Gas companies surveyed expect costs to rise (vs 72% last quarter) #oott#WTI#oilgas#invest
A thread –Dallas Fed Energy Survey
The drop in WTI has ‘Company Outlooks’ falling quite hard from prior quarters – with only 39% reporting a better outlook (vs. a high of 82% seeing a positive outlook in 1Q22). #oott#oilandgas#WTI
A thread –Dallas Fed Energy Survey
The Uncertainty Index continues to move higher and now back to levels seen at 2Q20. This ‘uncertainty’ likely keeps upcoming capex budgets muted, putting a lid on new oil and natgas supply for 2023 #oott#WTI#crude
A thread –Dallas Fed Energy Survey
Despite increasing concerns, Employment still remains robust – with 21% of Oil & Gas companies reporting more hiring whereas only 4% indicating less hiring going forward. The Index still remains near record highs #oilgas#crude
A thread –Dallas Fed Energy Survey
Oil & Gas mgmt expect WTI prices to be $88.74/bbl by YE 2022. This was above the reference price at the time, indicating mgmt likely see a tight physical market than what financial markets are suggesting #WTI#OOTT
A thread –Dallas Fed Energy Survey
Oil & Gas mgmt expect NYMEX natural gas prices to be $7.97/mcf by YE 2022. This is a pretty meaningful jump vs. 1Q22. Despite the natgas reference price falling q/q, mgmt increased their natgas price expectations q/q #LNG#ng
A thread - Dallas Fed Energy Survey
These are some of the special questions that caught our attention:
"Do you expect a significant tightening of the oil market by the end of 2024, given the current underinvestment in exploration?" 85% said yes
A thread - Dallas Fed Energy Survey
These are some of the special questions that caught our attention:
"Do you expect the age of inexpensive U.S. natural gas to come to an end as LNG exports to Europe expand?" 69% said yes by 2025; 12% said yes by 2030 #natgas
A thread - Dallas Fed Energy Survey
These are some of the special questions that caught our attention:
"Do you expect financial investors to return to the oil and gas sector?" 79% said 'some'; 10% said yes #investing
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
The EIA came out w/ their Short Term Energy Outlook. These are the largest revisions in key data points impacting crude oil markets today. Although many adjustments are small, it shows the directional bias the EIA sees with its forecasting models - a thread #oott #WTI
OPEC Total Spare Oil Capacity was revised lower by 12% or 0.6 mln bbls/d for 2024 (mostly due to Iraq that relied on the northern Iraq to Türkiye pipeline, for access to global markets, that has now been out of commission since Mar 2023) #crude
U.S 2024 oil demand was revised up +0.7% - despite another -1% revision in per capital gasoline demand - the lowest in two decades now. Remote work, fuel efficiency, high gasoline prices and inflation were factors of note #refinery #diesel
What's leading to Oil & Gas volatility? A considerable part could be attributed to Portfolio Managers being forced to sell their oil & gas investments as they face continued & unprecedented net mutual fund redemptions (at -$5.1 bln for July 2023) and $26 bln YTD now #energy #oott
These redemption concerns are still likely influencing PMs’ decision-making choices, with these PMs likely keeping their focus/investments in larger, more liquid energy names. Ultimately, smaller Oil & Gas names may not be seeing the attention they otherwise should deserve #TSXV
Leading to a more dislocation between small & large cap valuations is the flow of capital. Passive Equity ETFs (invested in more larger/liquid names) have seen net inflows of $12 bln (LTM), whereas Equity mutual funds have seen net outflows of $23 bln over the same period #ETF
The EIA released its Annual Energy Outlook
Here's 15 forecasts that went right and wrong over the past decade - a thread #oott#oil#natgas#renewables
Oil Demand: In 2011, oil demand was forecast to be 19.1 Mbbls/d by 2022 (actual: 17.7 Mbbls/d)
Part of the energy revisions reflect changes to U.S. population growth (which has been revised down 6% since the 2018 - the first year with forecasts out to 2050). By 2050, U.S. population is expected now at 370 mln vs. 395 mln people previously.
U.S. Crude Supply: In 2011, oil production was forecast to be 3.8 Mbbls/d by 2022 (actual: 9.6 Mbbls/d).
2050 production forecast has been revised 5% higher y/y to 11.2 Mbbls/d. But overall, for the next ~30 years, the EIA expects production to remain mostly flat #permian#bakken
The risk factor with energy investments continues to drop. The combined loan book by Canada's 6 big banks shows a 92% decrease in impaired loans to Oil & Gas (to $230 mln). What are the additional implications? -a thread #oott#energy#oilandgas
The banks comfort in the Oil & Gas sector plays a major role in capital spending plans (and ability for M&A). Despite loan impairments down, the banks have still reduced their overall lending to Oil & Gas by 54% since 1Q20 to $27 bln.
On a relative basis, Oil & Gas is now only 1.8% of the CDN bank wholesale loan business. As ancillary fees decline, so to has desire to lend, especially to smaller-cap E&Ps. The result is less sector growth, less 'farm-teams' for the majors, less exploration, etc
These are the EIA's key forecast revisions impacting natural gas markets. Although many of the adjustments are small, it shows the directional bias within their models. Overall, negative revisions for production; upward revisions in consumption for 2024, as NYMEX prices come down
LNG volumes are taking longer to pick-up in early 2023 but ultimately are still expected to grow to 13.5 bcf/d by YE 2024 #LNG#Natgas
Natural gas consumption doesn't quite reach levels seen last year (in both winter and summer months). This is typically the result of weather; with current demand being revised down slightly from last month
EIA came out with their Short Term Energy Outlook
- These are the largest revisions in key data points impacting oil markets today. Although many of the adjustments are small, it shows the directional bias the EIA sees with its forecast models - a thread #oott#oilandgas#WTI
With China showing more signs of opening, oil demand was revised up 1% (160 mb/d). Is there more oil demand revisions to come? Possibly. Expected crude demand in 2023 is still only up 5% to 15.8 mln b/d (from 14.4 mln b/d in 2020) #oott
U.S. oil production in 2024 was lowered 1.4% (150 mb/d) - with much of this oil supply decline near the back-end of the year. As earning season progresses (and capex budgets are revised), we may see more estimate revisions to come #crude#permian#eagleford#midland#bakken