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ISW

Oct 4 • 10 tweets • 12 min read

Eastern #Ukraine Update:

Ukrainian troops continued to consolidate gains around #Lyman on October 2 and 3 and likely made gains in the direction of the #Luhansk Oblast border. /1
isw.pub/RusCampaignOct3

Eastern #Ukraine Update:

#Russia's MoD stated that Russian troops struck Ukrainian positions in Yampolivka on October 2, confirming that Ukrainian troops control territory about 15km northeast of Lyman and within 10km west of the Luhansk Oblast border. /2
isw.pub/RusCampaignOct3

Eastern #Ukraine Update:

#Russian sources also stated that Ukrainian troops took control of #Terny and #Torske, 15km northeast and 13km east of #Lyman, respectively. /3
isw.pub/RusCampaignOct3

Eastern #Ukraine Update:

LNR militia representative Andrei Marochko confirmed that Ukrainian troops have crossed the #Luhansk Oblast border in an unspecified area on October 3 and gained a foothold somewhere in the direction of #Lysychansk. /4
isw.pub/RusCampaignOct3

Eastern #Ukraine Update:

Ukrainian forces continued to make gains in eastern #Kharkiv Oblast in the direction of the #Luhansk Oblast border on October 2 and 3. /5
isw.pub/RusCampaignOct3

Eastern #Ukraine Update:

The #Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) inadvertently confirmed that Ukrainian troops advanced east of #Kupyansk on October 2 and claimed that Russian forces struck Ukrainian positions in #Petropavlivka and #Synkivka. /6
isw.pub/RusCampaignOct3

Eastern #Ukraine Update:

Ukrainian forces additionally made gains near the #Kharkiv-#Luhansk Oblast border west of #Svatove on October 3. /7
isw.pub/RusCampaignOct3

Eastern #Ukraine Update:

Geolocated footage shows Ukrainian troops in #Borova and #Shyikivka, both within 35km west of #Svatove, which was later confirmed by the Borova City Council and various #Russian milbloggers. /8
isw.pub/RusCampaignOct3

Eastern #Ukraine Update:

Ukrainian sources additionally reported that Ukrainian troops retook #Izyumske and #Druzhelyubivka, about 25km southwest of #Svatove. /9
isw.pub/RusCampaignOct3

Eastern #Ukraine Update:

#Russian forces continued to conduct unsuccessful ground assaults in #Donetsk Oblast on October 2 and 3. /10
isw.pub/RusCampaignOct3

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More from @TheStudyofWar

ISW

@TheStudyofWar

Oct 5

https://twitter.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1577494986781868033

#Putin’s partial mobilization is having more significant short-term impacts on the Russian domestic context than on the war in #Ukraine, interacting with Russian battlefield failures to exacerbate fractures in the information space that confuse and undermine Putin’s narratives.🧵

https://twitter.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1577494986781868033

2/ #Putin is visibly failing at balancing the competing demands of the Russian nationalists who have become increasingly combative since mobilization began despite sharing Putin’s general war aims and goals in #Ukraine. isw.pub/RusCampaignOct4

@TheStudyofWar

3/ @TheStudyofWar has identified 3 main factions in the current Russian nationalist information space: Russian milbloggers & war correspondents, former Russian or proxy officers & veterans, and some of the Russian siloviki - people with meaningful power bases & their own forces.

Read 18 tweets

ISW

@TheStudyofWar

Oct 4

Southern Axis Update:

#Ukrainian forces continued to advance in northwestern and northeastern #Kherson Oblast between October 2 and 3. /1
isw.pub/RusCampaignOct3

Southern Axis Update:

#Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced that Ukrainian forces liberated #Myrolyubivka (23km northwest of #Kherson City) and #Arkhanhelske on the #Inhulets River south of the Kherson-Dnipropetrovsk Oblast border. /2
isw.pub/RusCampaignOct3

Southern Axis Update:

The #Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) acknowledged that #Ukrainian forces have penetrated Russian defenses in the direction of Zolota Balka (approximately 82km northeast of Nova Kakhovka). /3
isw.pub/RusCampaignOct3

Read 7 tweets

ISW

@TheStudyofWar

Oct 3

https://twitter.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1576777811053801472

🧵The Russian defeat in #Kharkiv Oblast and #Lyman, combined with the #Kremlin’s failure to conduct partial mobilization effectively and fairly are fundamentally changing the Russian information space. isw.pub/RusCampaignOct2

https://twitter.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1576777811053801472

2/ #Kremlin-sponsored media & Russian milbloggers – a prominent Telegram community composed of Russian war correspondents, former proxy officials, & nationalists – are grieving the loss of #Lyman while simultaneously criticizing the bureaucratic failures of partial mobilization.

3/ #Kremlin sources and milbloggers are attributing the defeat around #Lyman and #Kharkiv Oblast to Russian military failures to properly supply and reinforce Russian forces in northern #Donbas and complaining about the lack of transparency regarding the progress of the war.

Read 14 tweets

ISW

@TheStudyofWar

Oct 3

@TheStudyofWar

Tonight's campaign assessment from @TheStudyofWar and @criticalthreats focuses on dramatic changes in the #Russian information space following the Russian defeat around #Lyman and in Kharkiv Oblast and amid the failures of Russia’s partial mobilization. isw.pub/RusCampaignOct2

2/ Ukrainian forces made continued gains around #Lyman, #Donetsk Oblast, and have broken through Russian defensive positions in northeastern #Kherson Oblast. Those developments are summarized briefly and will be covered in more detail tomorrow when more confirmation is available.

3/ Key inflections in ongoing military operations on October 2 are detailed below.
isw.pub/RusCampaignOct2

Read 11 tweets

ISW

@TheStudyofWar

Oct 2

#Russian Mobilization & Force Generation Update:

Russian military leadership is continuing to compromise future reconstitution of the force by prioritizing the immediate mobilization of as many bodies as possible for ongoing fighting in #Ukraine. /1
isw.pub/RusCampaignOct1

#Russian Mobilization & Force Generation Update:

The practice of prematurely assigning cadets to reserve regiments will likely further degrade already-poor command structures. /2
isw.pub/RusCampaignOct1

#Russian Mobilization & Force Generation Update:

Underprepared cadets will be forced into leadership roles with insufficient training and little or no professional experience. /3
isw.pub/RusCampaignOct1

Read 4 tweets

ISW

@TheStudyofWar

Oct 2

Eastern #Ukraine Update:

Ukrainian forces liberated #Lyman on October 1. /1
isw.pub/RusCampaignOct1

Eastern #Ukraine Update:

#Russian sources indicated that the BARS-13 detachment that was holding the Russian defensive line in #Drobysheve, just northwest of #Lyman, withdrew to #Kreminna (about 25km east of Lyman). /2
isw.pub/RusCampaignOct1

Eastern #Ukraine Update:

#Russian sources discussed Ukrainian attacks north of #Lyman around #Torske, #Terny, and #Yampilske, suggesting that Ukrainian troops are continuing efforts to take settlements north of Lyman as well. /3
isw.pub/RusCampaignOct1

Read 6 tweets

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