I have difficulty understanding the intent of this message in terms of communication and substance.
A short thread on this.
Let's talk straight.
🧵 1/7
1 In terms of substance, the question is not whether or not to isolate Putin, but to ensure that the Russian regime loses the war, is put out of action, which implies its disappearance—I certainly understand that @MinColonna can't say this explicitly. 2/7 tenzerstrategics.substack.com/p/what-would-t…
2 Moreover, to think that talking to him could change him is the same illusion that has prevailed in recent years.
To send warning messages is certainly something else and could make sense. The US did. Has nothing to do with the isolation narrative. 3/7 tenzerstrategics.substack.com/p/ukraine-the-…
3 In terms of communication, this can only revive some old suspicions towards France, which is the worst thing, even more so now. We must stop talking, even in the distant future, about possible negotiations with this regime.
Diplomacy does not work with Putin.
Period. #Sigh
4/7
4 We can—and even must—engage in a reflection on the future of #Russia. Some analysts, including myself, have begun to do so.
This requires a double analysis: 1) that of the different segments of Russian society, of course. 5/7 tenzerstrategics.substack.com/p/post-putin-b…
But we must also think 2) about how democracies will have to carry the change in #Russia, by not repeating the mistakes of the Yeltsin era (deregulated markets, Western greed, social insecurity, permanence of the security apparatus...). 6/7 tenzerstrategics.substack.com/p/the-post-put…
5 In the immediate future, we must avoid the prospect of a long and costly war for Ukrainians by significantly increasing our military aid to #Ukraine without any restrictions on the type of weaponry.
We still remain halfway. 7/7 tenzerstrategics.substack.com/p/an-inconveni…
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To be fair, @EmmanuelMacron doesn't legitimize Putin's war of extermination. Elsewhere, he says no peace should include recognition of a status quo imposed by force.
But in saying this—"Russian power has been nourished by the resentment & humiliation born of the breakup...
🧵 1/9
of the Soviet empire"—, he not only commits a major communication blunder (for that is what will be remembered), but once more misunderstands the nature of the Russian regime.
1 He still does not grasp that...
2/9
the discourse of humiliation is just a ruse of Putin's power that aims at sharing a belief (what I had called in a paper the perception of a perception), exactly in the same way that its use by Hitler (the humiliation by the Treaty of Versailles, the "stab in the back")...
3/9
1 Putin's #Russia is the #enemy, the absolute enemy, not by nature but because of the threats it poses to the whole world.
Since too long.
Let's declare it so for good!
He's the total #evil, personally, and—most importantly—politically.
Short #thread🧵 tenzerstrategics.substack.com/p/what-does-vl…
3 Putin's speech is irrelevant. So let's stop giving it a value it doesn't have.
He repeated what we've known for 23 years about this regime. All these threats are old.
Some did not want to see it. Their fault is immeasurable.
This regime should have been destroyed long ago.
20 theses on #Ukraine/#Russia: recap.
1 We must act not only for Ukraine to win, completely, but also for Russia to lose, fully.
Let's stop fearing a collapse of Russia (which some weak minds are more worried about than Ukraine's victory).
A #Thread
🧵
1/20
2 There can be neither negotiations (apart from one-off issues like prisoner exchanges) with Putin's regime, nor peace talks.
Any hint of this weakens us.
2/20
3 The discourse in favor of such discussions, such as "we will have to sit down at the negotiating table", is either a sign of ignorance of the danger of this regime, or a propaganda narrative.
It would lead to a betrayal of our commitments to Ukraine and put us in danger.
3/20
Quick #thread on #Putin's speech.
1 We in the West need to stop buying into the rhetoric about #redlines and the nuclear threat.
I reminded him yesterday on a program: he has been using this rhetoric for many years.
1/13
To buy into it is to give up—with consequences for other countries elsewhere.
Not coincidentally, this is also a narrative picked up by Putin's propagandists in the West who push for a negotiated solution, peace talks, not arming #Ukraine, no trial for Putin, etc.
2/13
This narrative is what the Kremlin expects. Always keep in mind whose game you are playing and be ruthless to those who relay it.
More than time to throw this Putin #redline narrative in the trash.
3/13
What is interesting here is not so much the content of the message—quite classic—as its very existence.
It may show a willingness (to be confirmed) of the US to re-engage in the #Armenia-#Azerbaijan conflict when it had been very absent during the 2020 war... 1/4
and, before that, little involved in the Minsk group.
The EU as such was, by the way, also.
This left the door open for #Russia, which has become a kingmaker in this region, and reinforced its troops after the 2020 war.
It had also given a tacit nihil obstat to #Azerbaijan. 2/4
I had written this long paper in 2021 on this topic where I explained the background and consequences of the 2020 war.
Perhaps the Russian war against #Ukraine, which has weakened the latter, could in the long run be a game changer,... 3/4 tenzerstrategics.substack.com/p/who-is-the-r…