Gonzalo Varela Profile picture
Oct 27 11 tweets 10 min read
We have now 3 months of disaggregated #trade data for FY23 in #Pakistan. Visible deceleration both on #exports and #imports. Some key elements in 🧵below:
#Exports grew in Jul-Sep 23 versus Jul-Sep 22 by 5.3%. Slightly faster growth in #goods than in #services.

#Pakistan
By destination: in general, expansions, but contractions of shipments to #China, to #UK and to #UAE.

#exports #Pakistan
#Textile #exports still expanding but at substantially lower rates. Contractions in exports of base metals, chemicals and minerals.

#Pakistan
The data on month-to-month growth shows the #export deceleration more clearly:

#Pakistan
In #services, a concerning decline in #exports of #knowledge intensive services: telecom and business services.

#Pakistan
#Pakistan's #imports contracted by 3.9% (tho services imports expanded).
#China and #USA are the origins from which #imports have contracted the most.
And it's #imports of #machinery that have been contracting.
More visible in the monthly data...
#Pakistan #imports
In sum:
Deceleration in trade is associated with the deceleration in activity.
Restrictions to imports, particularly of #machinery and spare parts are a challenge for #exporters. /end

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More from @gonwei

Aug 4
Now we have dissaggregated @StateBank_Pak data on #Pakistan's #trade performance for the full of the FY22.

This thread will show performance in #values. not #volumes. Keep in mind FY22 was extraordinary in terms of high #prices, both for #imports and #exports. 👇👇👇🧵
1\ #Exports reached record highs, both #goods and #services, increasing by 26.6 and 17.1% respectively w.r.t. FY21. Good export prices and a decent #export response played a role here. Note: June 2022 is preliminary. Figures are Jul-Jun FY22 and
2\ #Pakistan #export growth was generalized by main destination. Particularly noticeable are increases in shipments to #USA and to #China - the two largest destinations.
Read 10 tweets
May 20
A month ago I wrote this 🧵 on why #import duties were not the answer to #Pakistan's Balance of Payments constraints. #ImportBans are certainly not the answer either. Rather, they exacerbate the underlying problem. Five thoughts. 🧵👇

1\ The usual: CAD results from a macro imbalance (Saving too low relative to investment, so foreign saving needed (borrowing) (CAD is the mirror image of borrowing from the rest of the world (financial account of BOP)). Fixing the CAD takes increasing saving (cool off demand).
2\ The #importban in #Pakistan reduces #imports (does it? see point 3\ below), but not the CAD, because it also reduces #exports.
profit.pakistantoday.com.pk/2022/05/01/imp…
Read 8 tweets
May 8
Thank you for the feedback, dear Yousuf. If you read the article carefully, you will see this is specific & data driven. A short thread to explain. 👇👇👇
Figure 2 in the article is built from a careful analysis combining micro-level *data* from all listed firms in Pakistan, & effective rates of protection (calculated based on FBR data on import duties and the latest input output *data* from IFPRI. It conveys the key message. 👇
Figure 3 comes from a careful econometric analysis we did w/@StefaniaLovo in which we recover markups from the data, and estimated systematic effects of changes in #import duties on these markups. It conveys the key message. 👇
Read 6 tweets
Apr 25
Fast #import growth has overshadowed some very good news in #Pakistan. The latest release of disaggregated #trade data by @StateBank_Pak reveals that the first nine months of FY22 showed #record high #exports in real terms, since there's statistics.
Short 🧵👇 w/ more results.
1\ #exports grew by 24.8% in the first 9 months of FY22 w.r.t. same period of FY21, reaching 23.7 bn for goods and 5.2 bn for services.

#Pakistan #trade
2\ All top destinations show fast #export growth. Shipments to the #USA and to #China in particular.
Read 9 tweets
Apr 19
Higher #import duties to tackle the #BOP problem is the wrong advice. It won't deliver on the intended objective. Why? 🧵👇 brecorder.com/news/40168085/…
1\ The #CAD is the result of a Saving/Investment imbalance. The sustainable solution to the #CAD entails policies that increase #saving.
2\ #Import duties might be a patch that in the short run curbs imports, but they will curb #exports too. Why? B/C they increase the profitability to sell at home, so firms shift from export to domestic markets. Import duties are implicit #export taxes. They won't reduce the CAD. Image
Read 9 tweets
Jan 27
With @StateBank_Pak releasing dissaggregated #trade data for December, we have a picture of the full 2021, which, despite #supply #chain disruptions worldwide, was 'good' for #Pakistan. Short thread below:
1\ #exports grew by 30.1% in 2021 w.r.t. 2020, with a strong pick up in merchandise, but also substantive in services.

#trade #Pakistan
2\ To be sure, in #real terms, #Pakistan's #exports remain below its local max in 2011. So, no 'record exports' if we talk real terms and not values.
Read 9 tweets

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