#INFLATION IN India does not Exist @nsitharaman
Prices of most #Huble & #affordable#snacks available in #Mumbai—vada pav, bhaji pav and samosa pav—have increased by Rs 2 to 5 in view of the hike in rates of edible oils & commercial cylinders ...2nd time in 2022 #Shrinkflation
Lets start with the Article from #APRIL2022... The rate of oil has suddenly increased by Rs 800-Rs 900 and the price of gas has also increased. Earlier, we used to pay Rs 1,600 for gas and now it stands at Rs 2,300. Green chilly too has become expensive.
Earlier we used to sell each vada pav for Rs 20 but we have now increased it to Rs 22. Similarly, we are selling samosa pav for Rs 23 as opposed to earlier Rs 20, and bhaji pav for Rs 22, up from Rs 20
Now with 2nd Nov 2022 Article on #Inflation and #Shrinkflation of the famous #Pav in the #Vada. The cost of the humble pav has now gone up to Rs 5 apiece from Rs 3.50-4 in 2021... Bakeries and suppliers have raised rates by 50 paise to a rupee as recently as october.
Why ? Every Raw Material for the Pav has witnessed steep inflation
#Shrinkflation of the Pav .. they are becoming smaller and lighter
Some will wait to hike from Next year..
If you recall, I did a thread on how the famous #AlooTikki Burger by @McDonalds#India has hiked its prices by almost 40% since Pre-covid....
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1/ This is clearly a #AssetManager#Bias since he is in the business of ONLY #COLLECTING#AUM ... The headline is "Half a trillion-dollar FII inflows may be heading India’s way and focus is on 3 sectors: Saurabh Mukherjea"
2/ The Share of INDIA DEDICATED FII money as a proportion of all the FII money in India today is about 7% from ACTIVE fund Managers . That Ratio of 7% about 10 years about was more like 12% and back in 2007-08, it was almost 25-30% .....
3/ So clearly 85% of the FII money in India IS NOT DEDICATED to India but a Regional Allocation from either Global Emerging Market funds or Asia Pacific Funds... The question is, if INDIA was so sexy, how come INDIA DEDICATED FII Money fell as a proportion
There is tremendous hype about Rishi Sunak being
selected as PM of Britian; which makes many Indians proud and happy
2/ However , how many of us know that Leo Varadkar, the current Prime Minister of Ireland is of Indian descent? His parents are from Vasai, near Bombay.
3/ As late as 2003, Leo completed his internship at KEM Hospital, Bombay.
His mother is an Irish lady and his father an Indian from Vasai, a suburb of Bombay, in Thane District of Maharashtra.
KEEP IN MIND 2 POINT (1) Anecdotally Restaurants & QSRs (& FMCG) have raised prices by 15-20% YoY due to inflation (2) Share of DINE-IN has increased from 33% (KFC) & 23% (PH) to 44% (KFC)/38% (PH) => people spend more/head in DINE-IN due to refreshments & desert
So Ideally on account of INFLATION ... say 12-15% and higher Share of Dine-in ...Say 20% higher Ticket size per head on 11-15% higher Incremental Dine-in Share...
Across Channels, Avg Ticket per Meal should be higher by atleast 12 to 15% (inflation) PLUS 20% * (avg of 11 & 15%)
Is India's Consumption is Booming or Bombing ? keep updating the thread with Nuggets ...
Kantar's FMCG Pulse report .. April-Aug 2022.
Average MONTHLY sales of FMCG packs were 19.2 bn, or 62 packs/household, from Apr-Aug 2022
vs PRE-COVID: Average MONTHLY sales of FMCG packs 15 billion or 51 packs/household => 20% Increase in VOLUME
packs bought pre-pandemic weighed 438 grams on average, the size has shrunk to just 309 grams now amid soaring inflation .... thats a 30% reduction in Volume/Pack...
In Other Words, CONSUMPTION per household in FMCG is Down 15% .... Cant recall such a BAD SCENARIO in 35 yrs..
I entirely agree with your view that the listed / formal space is doing better than the unlisted/informal space... but the key question is (1) With Asset Allocation globally moving from Equity (65% today) to Debt (=>65%) => likely FPI/FDI with India Savings <Investment Rate
(2) How Long can earnings grow with job losses continuing in the bigger informal economy
(3) Do you think that Rates reversing for the next decade if not more whihc is the 1st time in our investment career spanning 30yrs... do you think what you experienced will apply