Thread by @CrisisGroup

A far-right coalition is set to govern #Israel after #Netanyahu and his ultra-conservative allies won last week’s elections.

What are the implications for the country’s policy and foreign relations?

Q&A w/ @MairavZ & @USMEP’s Daniel levy 👇
crisisgroup.org/middle-east-no…

The election represents a triumph of the far-right, with three ultra-conservative parties forming the winning coalition. The outcome will see former PM @Netanyahu return to power in spite of his ongoing trial for corruption.

The election results are the culmination of a steady increase in religiosity and a growing rightward shift in #Israel society over the last two decades.

So what is this government likely to do?

It will dedicate efforts to ensure Israel’s continued subjugation of Palestinians, and fulfil its vision of a populist, conservative society.

One of the far right’s most significant campaign promise was also to weaken the judicial system by reducing the powers of the Supreme Court and the attorney general.

They also want to change the criminal code to cancel #Netanyahu’s corruption charges.

One of the most dangerous effects of the new government will perhaps be felt on the streets where Palestinians and Israelis come into contact most closely.

Leaders of the far-right coalition such as Ben Gvir and Netanyahu referred throughout the campaign to Palestinian Arab politicians as “terrorists” or “supporters of terror”.

Ben Gvir has also threatened to deport Arab citizens he deems disloyal.

The expressly anti-LGBTQ politics of the Religious Zionism party could also mean the reversal of recent measures institutionalising gay and transgender rights.

The new government offers little hope for a return to negotiations with the Palestinians.

The “peace process” that outside powers pay lip service to will become even further disconnected from reality.

Few outside powers – whether #Washington, key #EU capitals, #Israel’s neighbours or Arab countries – will welcome the result.

The U.S. State Department has already implied it will refuse to work with Ben Gvir, but it’s unclear what that really means.

President Biden has condemned the Israel's settlement expansion but has done nothing to stop it.

Europe may be unsettled with this new government but most countries are too preoccupied with the war in Ukraine and unlikely to raise their voices.

In the Middle East, the presence of rabidly anti-Arab politicians could make it harder for Arab countries to justify continuing to build their relations with Israel.

Finally, it’s unclear whether #Netanyahu will be able to continue his delicate balancing act of having close ties with President Putin given developments in #Ukraine.

A change of approach is likely in #Israel’s relation to #Russia.

Read more 👇
crisisgroup.org/middle-east-no…