Crisis Group Profile picture
Nov 9 13 tweets 5 min read
A far-right coalition is set to govern #Israel after #Netanyahu and his ultra-conservative allies won last week’s elections.

What are the implications for the country’s policy and foreign relations?

Q&A w/ @MairavZ & @USMEP’s Daniel levy 👇
crisisgroup.org/middle-east-no…
The election represents a triumph of the far-right, with three ultra-conservative parties forming the winning coalition. The outcome will see former PM @Netanyahu return to power in spite of his ongoing trial for corruption.
The election results are the culmination of a steady increase in religiosity and a growing rightward shift in #Israel society over the last two decades.
So what is this government likely to do?

It will dedicate efforts to ensure Israel’s continued subjugation of Palestinians, and fulfil its vision of a populist, conservative society.
One of the far right’s most significant campaign promise was also to weaken the judicial system by reducing the powers of the Supreme Court and the attorney general.

They also want to change the criminal code to cancel #Netanyahu’s corruption charges.
One of the most dangerous effects of the new government will perhaps be felt on the streets where Palestinians and Israelis come into contact most closely.
Leaders of the far-right coalition such as Ben Gvir and Netanyahu referred throughout the campaign to Palestinian Arab politicians as “terrorists” or “supporters of terror”.

Ben Gvir has also threatened to deport Arab citizens he deems disloyal.
The expressly anti-LGBTQ politics of the Religious Zionism party could also mean the reversal of recent measures institutionalising gay and transgender rights.
The new government offers little hope for a return to negotiations with the Palestinians.

The “peace process” that outside powers pay lip service to will become even further disconnected from reality.
Few outside powers – whether #Washington, key #EU capitals, #Israel’s neighbours or Arab countries – will welcome the result.

The U.S. State Department has already implied it will refuse to work with Ben Gvir, but it’s unclear what that really means.
President Biden has condemned the Israel's settlement expansion but has done nothing to stop it.

Europe may be unsettled with this new government but most countries are too preoccupied with the war in Ukraine and unlikely to raise their voices.
In the Middle East, the presence of rabidly anti-Arab politicians could make it harder for Arab countries to justify continuing to build their relations with Israel.
Finally, it’s unclear whether #Netanyahu will be able to continue his delicate balancing act of having close ties with President Putin given developments in #Ukraine.

A change of approach is likely in #Israel’s relation to #Russia.

Read more 👇
crisisgroup.org/middle-east-no…

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More from @CrisisGroup

Nov 9
📢 LIVE NOW

How can leaders at #COP27 better support countries which suffer from the combined effects of #climatechange & conflict?

🗣️ @nazaninemoshiri @AndrewCiacci & @OECDdev's Giorgio Gualberti.

Tune in 👇
twitter.com/i/spaces/1lPJq…
50% of climate-affected countries are also impacted by violent conflict. Yet countries who suffer from this deadly combination receive less funding than conflict-free ones.

Vital that leaders at #COP27 rectify this imbalance.

Tune in to learn more.
crisisgroup.org/content/fair-s…
“When funding arrives it’s often in the form of loans. This is troubling as climate-affected countries who also experience conflict are under high levels of debt,” says
@AndrewCiacci
twitter.com/i/spaces/1lPJq…
Read 9 tweets
Nov 8
#Ecuador’s reputation as one of the safest Latin American countries is changing as homicides and violence rise at alarming rates.

2022 is already its deadliest year ever registered.

What’s behind this surge in violence?

New @ICGlatam commentary 👇🧵
crisisgroup.org/latin-america-…
#Ecuador had a stable security situation between 2011 and 2017 that former president Rafael Correa attributed to the adoption of a number of reforms such as the creation of a Ministry of Justice.

But criminal organisations were also invigorated over the same period.
Homicides and violence surged in 2018 due to a repeated attacks by FARC dissidents, demobilised in 2017.

During these attacks other criminal networks took advantage of the mayhem to flex their muscles across #Ecuador and increase their activity.
Read 13 tweets
Nov 7
Climate change is fuelling deadly conflict in a number of ways.

@CrisisGroup we highlight how this dangerous dynamic works and what world leaders can do to mitigate it.

Follow this live #COP27 thread for daily updates on climate security.

crisisgroup.org/global/cop-spe…
.@RobBlecher testified before the U.S. Congress and explained the three main categories of security risks:

1) Cascading risks. How climate change can undermine livelihoods and induce competition over land, water, and other resources, driving conflict.
In #Kenya, the ongoing drought in the Laikipia plateau has led to renewed violence between pastoralists and farmers as well as between security forces and herders.

Read 12 tweets
Sep 14
“There is very little time left to save lives here in #Somalia” warns @nazaninemoshiri from Dollow, a town situated on the border with #Ethiopia.
In the absence of a significant scale-up of humanitarian supplies, @FEWSNET predicts an alarming acceleration of death and destitution in the coming months as more and more families exhaust their last options for survival 👇
Displaced people in Dollow told @OmarSMahmood & @nazaninemoshiri that the drought has decimated livestock, almost three million animals have died and destroyed the farming capacity of entire villages.

Food prices have soared even higher following the crisis in Ukraine.
Read 8 tweets
Sep 13
One step forward, two steps back.

Such is the dance of the diplomatic saga that is the #JCPOA negotiations.

Today, the music has stopped and the #IranNuclearDeal is at risk of collapsing.

[Thread] 🧵👇
crisisgroup.org/b87-middle-eas…
An important reminder: the process is not over.

Parties to the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (#JCPOA) continue to express their intention to revive the deal.

Though it seems unlikely today, parties were very close to reaching an agreement in March earlier this year.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine blew the #JCPOA negotiations off the map, and talks lost their momentum.

When the parties reconvened, some of the gaps that the two sides thought they had narrowed or closed had reappeared or even widened.
Read 11 tweets
Sep 12
📢 LIVE NOW!

What are the prospects for reviving the #IranNuclearDeal?

Tune in this live discussion with #JCPOA experts @AliVaez @EllieGeranmayeh & Naysan Rafati 🎙️

Questions can be sent through DMs for the Q&A.
fal.cn/3rMJl
Don't miss our latest report on the current state of the #JCPOA negotiations, and where they are headed, in available online as of this morning!
crisisgroup.org/b87-middle-eas…
“The process is now really bordering on the absurd", says as @AliVaez to open our live Twitter Space discussion on the #JCPOA negotiations.

Join us and ask your questions for the Q&A through our DMs!
twitter.com/i/spaces/1jMKg…
Read 12 tweets

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