🧵Some important details on #KhersonRetreat of #Russia: 1) Russia has been withdrawing its better, regular army units for some time already. Instead, 🇷🇺was gathering newly drafted men there. As of now, they stay there. We’ll see if Russia withdraws them or leave for captivity 1/
2) Militarily, #Russia had no choice, but retreat. Bridges were destroyed, no logistic chains. But politically it’s even more serious defeat of #Russia, than military one. It was the only one regional centre, occupied after 24.02.22. 2/
3) #Russia is withdrawing from its “own territory” – that is how they trapped themselves with announcement of illegal unrecognized by anyone annexation. Dictators power is undermined, when “strong leaders” image is destroyed. Especially, on a battlefield. 3/
4) What’s next about #Kherson? We need proof, th at they retreat, firstly. Secondly, most probably, we should expect some new severe attacks on Ukraine after that. Symbolic and serious. Russia will withdraw, but will continue with huge attacks as “retaliation” for this defeat.End
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I’ll tell you a story from my hometown in 2014-2015. #Russia failed to seize Stanytsya Luhanska then, and shelled electric grids everyday. Electricity disappeared, repair servicemen fixed it under shellings and next day everything was repeated. 1/
Surgeons were operating in local hospitals with light from diesel generators. Some of them lived in a hospital month in a row cause they mobile signal disappeared constantly and if doctor had gone home he would hardly have been reachable 2/
Rescuers, servicemen were fixing damaged tubes, electricity grids on a daily basis. Local authorities worked with NO interruptions. Public services to locals (including those coming from occupied part of Luhansk region) were provided in full. 3/
Demilitarization of 🇷🇺army goes on. Two new attacks on 🇷🇺 air basis and arms depots, namely in Dzhankoy and near #Symferopol, capital of 🇺🇦Autonomous Republic of #Crimea, occupied by #Russia since 2014. Some thoughts on significance of these attacks and recents blasts in Crimea🧵
1)Crimea doesn’t differ from military targets in occupied parts of Kherson, Zaporizhzhya or Donbas. It’s NOT Russian territory, just another occupied part of 🇺🇦. RU is shocked (both Kremlin and citizens), that Crimea isn’t untouchable for UA. 2/
2) Political effect of these attacks is even much bigger than military. Crimea must be returned to UA, #Russia must withdraw. UA loudly said after 24.02, that it will struggle for deoccupation of its entire territory. Now we see practical implementation of this goal. 3/
🧵I am waiting for the publication of the text of the "grain" agreement tomorrow.
❗️But it is already clear today: we have not received real mechanisms to guarantee the safety of Ukrainian ports. Such mechanisms could at least be: 1/
- the presence of foreign (in this case – Turkish) warships. Russia would hardly dare to attack our ports in this situation. Now it looks like Turkish ships will most likely be either at the entrance/exit of these sea corridors, or if near Ukrainian ports, then not stationary. 2/
This seemingly technical detail actually solves everything. Let's see where the Turkish ships end up. 3/
⚡️#Sievierodonetsk doesn’t exist anymore. 🇺🇦soldiers started leaving the city in organized manner. It’s not possible to hide and fight effectively there.121 days of incredible and professional defense despite quantity superiority of the enemy. What is important here?1/
1) Army of #Russia can proceed only by complete destruction of the areas. Tactics is simple as “scorched land”. They couldn’t win in terms of tactics and planning. That is why less numerous units were standing firmly against so called “2d army” for more than 4 months. 2/
2) #Ukraine has 3 main goals: keep the land, keep the army and exhaust #Russia’s army up to maximum. Battle for #Sievierodonetsk was more and more about exhausting RU skilled human resources last weeks. And now it is about saving #UAarmy units, who are our main resource. 3/
🧵#100daysofwar. They said, #Ukraine would fall in max.3 days, but we surprised the whole world. Maneuvering defense, sophisticated tactics, top-level military skills. Huge motivation and spirit in the army and society. In this 🧵 some major conclusions so far 1/
Military summing up:
1A)#Russia failed in majority of attacks: #Kyiv, Sumy, Kharkiv, Chernihiv, Odesa, Mykolayiv.
1B) RU “success” in major part of #Luhansk region isn’t due to RU offensive, but rather bcs of tactical step back of #UAarmy. 2/
1C) Where UA army seriously fought in Luhansk obl (#Sievierodonetsk, Popasna, Rubizhne), Russians can’t take the towns for 3 months already!
Their only tactics is to destroy city to zero (Popasna, #Rubizhne), to occupy this empty land 3/ #ArmUkraineNow
Some more thoughts on meaning of RU oil embargo: 1) economic calculations are not the main issue. It is political breakage of “business as usual” with #Russia. The most sensitive area starts being covered by sanctions. Strategic turn from energy dependence is being started. 1/
2) “Steel” schemes appeared to be flexible. #EU changes its politics, business in areas, which were untouchable before. 3) RU isn’t a reliable partner anymore. The sooner this dependence from RU ends, the safer for the EU. This approach slowly, but irreversibly shapes reality 2/
3) #Ukraine will raise its weight in energy (and not only) negotiations, cause southern part of #Druzhba pipeline goes through 🇺🇦 territory to all 3 countries, excluded from ban on oil embargo: #Hungary, #Slovakia and #CzechRepublic. 3/