Thread by @bctallis

We don’t, yet, know what caused the deadly explosion in #Przewodow #Poland & should not jump to conclusions.
BUT, there are several important things to consider.

1. This would not have happened if we had earlier given #Ukraine the means to defeat #Russia & end the war.

2. If this were an ‘accident’ then it only confirms that in #Russia, we are dealing with a dangerously reckless & incompetent regime which cuts margins too fine. They must be contained & deterred more strongly - to not take such risks.

#Przewodow #Poland

3. If it were the result of a partial intercept of a Russian missile by a Ukrainian SAM then we have to ask what that Russian missile was aimed at- where was it heading? Likely targets - civilian populations, critical infrastructure (road, rail, EU-UA power grid connections?)

4. If it were a ‘test’ of NATO resolve then it would be an apt place to do it. Deadly but not with mass casualties (2 are too many, but don’t forget how many Ukrainians are being killed by Russia every day). And with all that crit infrastructure & Rzeszow air base close by.

Getting the response right to such a provocation, such recklessness or such a tragic accident is thus key.

5. This must be coordinated by Allies & is a good moment to again show the value of NATO in calibrating any response & ensuring it shows collective resolve with #Poland.

6. Moscow will be watching for any signs of wavering/ fear of escalation dominating decision making. I don’t think there will be- but we have to make sure that’s the case.

7. Whatever the cause, preventing such an incident in future would be best achieved by ending the war Asap

8. To end the war, #Russia needs to be kicked out of #Ukraine. That would end their terror campaign against Ukrainian civilians and stop any such incidents as this - no missiles targeting W. Ukraine, no need to fire air defence missiles.

9. To get #Russia out of #Ukraine we need to give 🇺🇦 what it needs to win - and thus make us all safer. at a minimum, #Tanks, #IFVs, & more air defence.
We should do this asap

10. Once #Ukraine wins it needs an EFFECTIVE security guarantee. That means #NATO membership - the only thing that deters #Russia. We should welcome 🇺🇦 in.

This incident needs a proper response but doesn’t change the fundamental dynamics & calculations of the war & our interests