#Italy DECLARES, according to #Eurostat principles, an higher GDP etc.
Yet, as @michaelxpettis asserted today about #China;
1. Most of it is "directed" by the government;
2. "Government" GDP measures activity, not value added, and it's usually one for one with debt. (/)
As such, just google "Italian GDP and Debt to GDP" , and see what happens; #Italy has lost two decades vs. The rest of the #EU , in a "the tortoise and the SLOWER tortoise" parody of "the Tortoise and the hare". (/)
In fact, it could be construed that #Italy's business model is this: compressing sector growth from future years into the present one forcibly ( see the 110% house energy efficiency fiscal incentive), coupled with a "private success must be punished" bent.(/)
See the "tax on extraordinary energy profit". Reintroduced by #Draghi (bad), and reinforced by #Meloni (worse). I say "worse" since she won on a yearning for change, and that tax is stupid. Popular, but stupid.
(/)
So that comparison, while technically true on public sector GAAP, is IMHO misleading: those country have generally a lower debt to GDP, a lower public spending to GDP, AND lower unit costs on industrial production. In a "reshoring" decade, who will be better?(/)

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More from @gbponz

Oct 12
mmmm... my views may be skewed by my long frequentation and love for the UK, but there is no way in Heaven or Hell that it might even come close to Italy in financial risk and political terms. Having said that, oversight has gone down the drain everywhere.(/)
As to Pension funds and such, I had the privilege to become acquainted and friend with a well placed expert. We are still in contact, and I have no doubt he is as appalled as I am at the total miss in risk assessment. But that's the nature of the beast.(/)
I was personally scolded, in my former life, for having told a University audience that insurance is prey to the "60 year old disease": CEOs, higher ups in insurance and pension funds can take actions who LOOK good now, ARE bad NOW, but whose effects won't be seen for a decade./
Read 7 tweets
Sep 12
While pollsters and pundits gave an advantage to the center-left sitting government in #Sweden's elections, results have edged to the right, irrespective of the final count. This is not a surprise to an Italian, but frankly it should surprise no one. aljazeera.com/news/2022/9/12… (/)
Here in #Italy there has always been a "skew" between polls and actual results, quite understandable in a country where the main stream media are firmly in the hands of the left wing establishment: there is actually a channel which was built to order by State television, Rai3.(/)
Read 10 tweets
Sep 11
Yet, there are TWO wars. One, is in #Ukraine, and Ukraine has consistently "punched above its weight". One is in #Europe, where the main Russian weapon has been #Germany./ @Halsrethink @TomekDeptuch @RobertMCutler @pietercleppe @nglinsman @pmakela1 @ResearchRonin @BaldingsWorld
While there are undoubted successes on the ground in #Ukraine, #Russia is still playing its card much better on #Europe. Keeping tensions high about #ZaporizhzhiaNuclearPowerPlant played into keeping #Germany from restarting its #NuclearPower plants.(/)
That keeps #Nordstream1 and 2 on the table, and renewables going for Russia (#RenewableEnergy is 2/3 gas, 1/3 whatever solar or wind you deploy). Even with a diversification of sources, Renewable fans won't drill domestically and two more years of #Biden will help. (/)
Read 4 tweets
Sep 10
for personal reasons, I was checking on an interesting site maintained by the #EU:single-market-economy.ec.europa.eu/single-market/…
Apparently, there has been a drive to make it simple to register for business in any EU country. But check what I wrote against the official wording: (/)
"register for business" is different from "Starting a business". One thing is getting a VAT number, a local tax code and provide an address. Actually STARTING a business, and I have been involved in that, it's a different kettle of fish. But, out of curiosity, I checked. (/)
Read 5 tweets
Sep 9
Well... that requires a clarification. Lest people think the #German government hadn't spent two decades working on the country's demise.(/) @Halsrethink @ektrit @jeuasommenulle @nglinsman @Ed___________0 @petunianelsole @LorenaLuVi @andrepaltry @AlessandroPonz4 @eshow1969
"Competitive advantage" comes from "Competition", i.e. trying to be on average better or at least adequate in a game where may players are involved and where everyone sees everyone else. Think "bicycle race". (/)
But it is not enough to be adequate on a STATIC framework: there are ups and downs, hills and turns. So there is an element of foresight and tradeoffs needed. Time lags are also EXTREMELY important. Look up #OODA Loop for reference. (/)
Read 8 tweets
Feb 12
The weapon the three Police officers in the back hold is probably a Milkor grenade launcher, six round capacity, 40mm grenades. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Milkor_MGL @eshow1969 @RebelNewsOnline @FoxNews (/)
Those can use crowd control rounds, like "bean bags", rubber balls, or sponge. Yet, even given the reduces charge of those rounds, those policemen have been incorrectly deployed (/)
In order to use them properly without risking undue harm to the targeted crowd, they would have to fall back SIGNIFICANTLY. And I know from personal experience how hard it is to do that when push comes to shove.(/)
Read 4 tweets

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