Thread by @BULLReturns

Thought of the day: Locating a 50 bagger for 2023 entry through 2026 exit, likely characteristics, down 95%+ from 2021 peak, volume growth +2-3x, selling price price +1-2x through 2026. Examples: commodity micro cap, a tech turnaround, a crypto token, a REIT or durable goods cap.

#bitcoin miners bottom incoming:

#Bitcoin 12.5k = -30% from here = -93-98.5% = +7-15x

#Bitcoin 10k = -50% from here = -95-99% from peak = +10-20x

#Bitcoin 5k = -75% from here = -97-99.9% from peak = +15-30x

#Survivability test in play, liquidity runway requirements

#REITs & Durable goods (#USHomebuilders) bottoming likely 2H 2023, where 12 month balance sheet liquidity is under pressure due to frozen credit markets (inability to refinance = elevated default risk)

Very Tight credit conditions = -70% move from here

Frozen Credit = -90% move

#Commodity micro cap < $40m

Generally pre-production
Trading at <8% of NPV
Project IRR > 90%
Capex < 20% of NPV

1st Quartile commodity price moves to 4th Quartile
Volume growth optimization in line with NPV assumptions

= 20-70x

A potential example:

$AHQ based on the following assumptions: around 5c entry
A) optimizes 4 mines through 2026
B) combined capacity 5m/t at < $115/t cost
C) the coal price cycle bottoms in 2024 (around $150/t) and takes off to above $450/t met in 2026/27
D) low dilution