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Nov 26 • 3 tweets • 1 min read
Thought of the day: Price determines our likability of a company, a 95% fall, often changes our view to positive, assuming the fundamentals are considerable, we particularly like <1x cashflow valuations within the next 3 years.
When we accummulated our $AEE position 2018-2020 we paid around:

0.2x 2024/25 Cap/CF

Current Valuation = 0.8x 2024/25 Cap/CF (likely 1.2x fully diluted)

Fair Value 2024 = 5-7x equating to 3-4x upside

Note this excludes Haggen Project which can add 3-5x upside.

#uranium
Achieving a 20-30 bagger generally requires the vision when the stock is trading on <0.2x Cap/CF 3-5 years out. This often couples with #commodity spots below cost curves, which then come into vogue and rise by 3-8x.

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More from @BULLReturns

Cycle Bottom Profile picture
Nov 24
$AEE using only 20% of the old resource in the NPV (without #vanadium credits) = 600% increase in the NPV = $800m at $75 pricing Vs current cap $140m (excluding Swedish battery metals project) #uranium
$AEE ability to expand the resource at 10c per pound #uranium
$AEE 45% fixed operating costs, spread over 3-5mlbs Vs 1mlb boosts the scaling productivity materially pushing AISC lower #uranium
Read 5 tweets
Cycle Bottom Profile picture
Nov 22
Thought of the day: Locating a 50 bagger for 2023 entry through 2026 exit, likely characteristics, down 95%+ from 2021 peak, volume growth +2-3x, selling price price +1-2x through 2026. Examples: commodity micro cap, a tech turnaround, a crypto token, a REIT or durable goods cap.
#bitcoin miners bottom incoming:

#Bitcoin 12.5k = -30% from here = -93-98.5% = +7-15x

#Bitcoin 10k = -50% from here = -95-99% from peak = +10-20x

#Bitcoin 5k = -75% from here = -97-99.9% from peak = +15-30x

#Survivability test in play, liquidity runway requirements
#REITs & Durable goods (#USHomebuilders) bottoming likely 2H 2023, where 12 month balance sheet liquidity is under pressure due to frozen credit markets (inability to refinance = elevated default risk)

Very Tight credit conditions = -70% move from here

Frozen Credit = -90% move
Read 5 tweets
Cycle Bottom Profile picture
Nov 15
#Vietnam markets imploding due to excessive margin liquidations on top of excess corporate bond expiry in 2023 (in a period of frozen liquidity conditions). 3x Book valuations dropping to 0.2x have been compelling entry points in the past. We stepped into the Green stock.
The unique daily trading limits in #Vietnam are a 2 edged sword...they lock buyers out in an aggressive upswing and prevent sellers exiting on an aggressive drawdown. This creates excessive ranges in bull and bear markets - providing unique opportunities for those doing the...
#Vietnam Shopping list incoming:

<0.2x book = 10x returns over the next 5yrs
<95% from 18 months peaks

Balance sheet liquidity is sufficient to ride through 2023 frozen refinancing markets.
$TIG 2.3x trailing PE at the lows this morning, 50% net Liquid assets to cap, 0.43x bk
Read 7 tweets
Cycle Bottom Profile picture
Nov 11
Thought of the day: Fighting #commodity price tops will just result in 75% plus stockprice retracements, #cyclicality music always stops, grab a chair early to avoid serious regrets and portfolio destruction. Easy clue to follow, is 65-80% margins above cost curves are peakish.
Those #commodities that are currently near bottoming (0-20%) for the next up cycle 2H2023-2025....

#tin -65%
#ironore -66%
#nickel -60% (moving up)
#Lumber -72%
#zinc -40%
#HRCSteel -67%

Know where you are in the cycle....
1st Quartile candidates for the next cycle...
Read 8 tweets
Cycle Bottom Profile picture
Oct 25
Assessing the survivability of #bitcoinminers

A) Understand the debt structure, particularly what falls due within the next 18 months
B) Assess the liquidity position today & over the next 18 months
C) Check on operating cashflow positivity at current #Bitcoin prices & lower
1/
D) What is the end of 1H 2023 liquidity picture like.. (cash+coins-debtpayments-/+6 month cash margin less capex obligations)
...positive margin of safety is required otherwise material dilution and/or bankruptcy becomes a high risk.
....conduct the same exercise yr end 2023.
2/2
Thoughts on potential cashflow recovery for #bitcoinminers

#Bitcoin pricing and sector operating CF margins:
1H 2024 $30,000 17%
2H 2024 $40,000 37%
1H 2025 $60,000 58%
2H 2025 $80,000 70%
1H 2026 $100,000 75%
2H 2026 $120,000 80%

Example: 20 #Bitcoin per day 2H 2025..

1/2
Read 4 tweets
Cycle Bottom Profile picture
Oct 17
Why is $AHQ a takeover target?

Cap < 5% of NPV

Trading at a 80% discount to peer group

Cap per tonne of Resource = 6c (or 70c of reserves)

Optimized cash margin per tonne = $50-75 over 2023-2024

Tenas Project lowest AISC and low capex start up.

#coal #metcoal #thermalcoal
It's always interesting that those who loved the stock at 50c, hate it at 5c or indicate the risks are much greater at 5c than 50c....one thing is for sure, on successful optimization the returns are much higher at 5c than 50c. At 50c the discount to NPV was 88%, at 5c it's 95%.
Tenas NPV at $125/t price and only 15% of the resource is A$300m, at $180/t pricing and 60% of the resource the NPV is over A$2bn alone. The hidden gem of why $AHQ is a bargain at 5c #coal $CKA $WHC
Read 5 tweets

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