⏩ New Introductory Essay
‘To #Ukraine With Love’
Talks about how #Russia’s war has changed us - me included. I share my personal journey this year & how I’ve tried to respond to the situation my doing more & doing better - & found such good company in doing so (incl. #NAFO).
There’s 4 Sections
I. #Ukraine’s fight for EU Membership &🇪🇺’s struggle for its identity
II. The Return of Central Europe & the rise of #NeoIdealism
III. #Germany: Reckoning, Reinvention & (Unrealised) Potential
IV. The #VisaBan & How to Defend Liberalism amazon.com/Ukraine-Love-E…
And here’s the full contents list.
- I added an intro paragraph to each text explaining where it was written, why and what are the key issues it raised (& reflecting on how some things changed through the year as well as what endured) - & thank those who made the text possible
I did the book for 3 reasons: 1. To provide ways of making sense of the war, why it matters and how we can win.
3. To pay tribute to (& provide another anchor for) the community we formed through collective purpose #NAFO + amazon.de/-/en/gp/produc…
When I asked some people who I respect, admire & love engaging with to provide blurbs for the book, I was absolutely overwhelmed by their generosity - this means so much to me - thank you all. Here are the endorsements
first from @IlvesToomas #Ukraine amazon.com/gp/aw/d/B0BPW9…
So, please buy the book & help spread the ways of understanding the war, why it matters & how we can win. Ukrainians have inspired us and we owe them so much - here’s a way to start paying back
To #Ukraine With Love
We don’t, yet, know what caused the deadly explosion in #Przewodow#Poland & should not jump to conclusions.
BUT, there are several important things to consider.
1. This would not have happened if we had earlier given #Ukraine the means to defeat #Russia & end the war.
2. If this were an ‘accident’ then it only confirms that in #Russia, we are dealing with a dangerously reckless & incompetent regime which cuts margins too fine. They must be contained & deterred more strongly - to not take such risks.
3. If it were the result of a partial intercept of a Russian missile by a Ukrainian SAM then we have to ask what that Russian missile was aimed at- where was it heading? Likely targets - civilian populations, critical infrastructure (road, rail, EU-UA power grid connections?)
I respect the authors of this piece, but I think they've got this badly wrong on #Ukraine, #Russia - in terms of both what should & what is likely to happen.
The framing as a trilemma actually encourages the option that the authors claim not to want - sleepwalking into a longer conflict. By making the issues seem so intractable & underplaying the stakes of some of the options, this piece sells both #Ukraine and the West short. /2
1st, the false option of abandoning #Ukraine is raised as a possibility. 2nd, defeat for #Russia is painted as both inevitably humiliating & having a high likelihood of undesirable security consequences for the West. 3rd,🇷🇺ability to fight a long war is seriously overestimated /3
When Kupchan says the war is dangerously escalating, what he actually means is that #Ukraine is winning - which he is against or at least frightened of. As he later admits.
This is nonsense. #Ukraine’s advance, it’s success is not some power hungry grab for territory, although it is 100% to want to restore its rightful borders. It’s about liberating its people & freeing them #Russia’s awful rule & countless brutalities. Kupchan doesn’t get that.
#Germany needs change.
But what is the change it needs?
In this new piece for @IPQuarterly I argue that rather than narrowly or introvertedly focusing on defence, 🇩🇪 (& its partners) need a #Zeitenwende that is:
Defence & the role of the military have (understandably) hogged the headlines since Chancellor #Scholz' 27/02 speech that seemed to herald a new approach.
- But the 100bn EUR special fund to plug some of the most glaring (military) gaps isn't enough 2/
to touch the sides of the Bundeswehr's shortcomings and won't help #Germany consistently meet its #NATO 2% target beyond 2025.
Nonetheless, #Scholz has claimed that 🇩🇪has already made a "fundamental change" 3/ bundesregierung.de/breg-en/search…
This is exactly the kind of thing that undermines our societies - it seems to show that you can free ride on democracy, parasite on the decency of others & get away with it. A bad example.
orban should be shut down rather than celebrated (🇭🇺 out of 🇪🇺unless it changes it’s ways)
Certainly we need serious reform & reinvention in our own societies - but we also need to stop shooting ourselves in the foot. This was just a dumb exercise. If we reduce politics to this kind of sorry piss-taking spectacle we will reap what we sow. We will suffer & so will 🇺🇦
Unless you think ppl avoiding their military call-ups are tourists then #Russia's #PartialMobilization doesn't really change much with regard to the #visaban.
There are, however, ongoing issues to consider that the #EU & its member states should address promptly.
A🧵/1
The proposed '#visaban', which has now been implemented de facto by several #EU states (which border #Russia) was intended to stop Russian *tourists* from entering the Schengen zone. There are very good reasons for this - as I outlined here /2
And those reasons for the #visaban for *tourists* still stand: 1. To support #Ukraine & shorten the war 2. To bolster #EU states' security & resilience 3. To use our power to stand up for our democracies /3 bylinetimes.com/2022/08/30/eu-…