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Sunil Jhaveri

@IamMisterBond

Jan 8

MisterBond's #RollofHonour in #Debt schemes as on January 2023 (based on past 12 monthly ranking analysis)

Only difference instead of last 7 year data (in Equity), we collate data over 5 year period and do daily 36 month (vs 60 month in Equity) #RollingReturns analysis:

#BankingandPSU

#CorporateBondFund

Read 6 tweets

Sunil Jhaveri

@IamMisterBond

Jan 6

Announcing MISTERBOND'S ROLL OF HONOUR for Mutual Fund schemes under all categories of #Debt, #Hybrid and #Equity.

This will showcase Top 5 schemes in each category.

This should become the #GOLD standard in ranking Mutual Fund schemes on #QuantitativeAnalysis

This will be based on monthly analysis of daily rolling returns in each category and then
12 month average of such monthly analysis

We compile daily rolling returns over different periods based on Asset classes like:
1. Daily 60 mth rolling returns over past 7 yrs for Equity
2. Daily 36 mth rolling returns over past 5 yrs for CreditRisk
3. Daily 12 mth rolling returns over past 3 yrs for Low Duration Funds

Read 10 tweets

Sunil Jhaveri

@IamMisterBond

Aug 8, 2022

@michaeljburry

#BullWhip effect as per @michaeljburry:

All know that rising #inflation is negative for #Equity markets as #CentralBanks (CB) tend to raise rates to control #demand - which in turn can lead to #Recession. During this phase #demand outpaces #supply.

@PensionCraft

Demand contracts for some time and supply also contracts with a lag. Post that demand starts to rise (post COVID), prompting manufacturers to increase supply disproportionately - creating a supply glut. This puts downward pressure on prices,inflation comes down. CBs turn dovish

This creates disinflationary phenomena. Though looks good on paper for equity markets, prices of all products come down substantially.

This is called #BullWhip effect.

Supply outpaces demand. Prices collapse, inventories pile up, margins shrink.

This slows earnings growth

Read 5 tweets

Sunil Jhaveri

@IamMisterBond

Jun 8, 2022

What factors to look for to understand which direction are #interestrates headed:

1. Total Credit in the system
2. Which gets divided into External and Internal
3. External focuses on #CAD
4. Internal: Private & Govt
5. Private - #CreditOfftake
6. Govt - #FiscalDeficit

3. External :
#CAD (Current Account Deficit - difference between country's #Imports & #Exports) goes up, #imports become expensive, rupee depreciates, bringing in imported #inflation

- interest rate tend to go up

4. Internal Credit
5. #PrivateSector - #Creditofftake goes up interest rates rise
6. Govt - #FiscalDeficit goes up interest rates rise

Read 4 tweets

Sunil Jhaveri

@IamMisterBond

May 21, 2022

Why one needs to protect downside - a thread:

Basics:

If NIFTY goes down from 18,000 to 9,000 it is 50% drop.

Now it needs to go up 100% from thereon to break even and come back to 18,000 and then get into positive territory

Current situation:

Markets have dropped by almost 12% from the peak reached on 18th Oct 2021.

#nifty50 will have to go up by 13.63% and scale back to 18500 from hereon to break even and then get into positive territory.

That is almost 2200 points rise from hereon

Those who invested at market peaks will have to wait much longer to a) break even and b) then go into positive territory

Investing at right Valuations and not at any valuation should matter to the Investors.

For that you need to avoid #FOMO, have #patience & #discipline

Read 4 tweets

Sunil Jhaveri

@IamMisterBond

May 13, 2022

TIME TO ENTER & NOT EXIT FROM EQUITY at this juncture

After yesterday's correction, NIFTY PE & PB have gone down for our Algo to show one can invest 60% in Equity. In such a scenario, we would recommend out of ₹100, ₹60 can now be invested in Equity and balance 40% in Liquid.

We then do value STP of 3X over next few months till markets remain in Yellow Zone. If markets collapse to Green Zone, balance amount in liquid can be deployed in Equity immediately.

What is 3X?

60 lacs/60 mths = 1 lac is 1X
3X in this case is 3 lacs

But please remember, that after 60% investment in Equity if markets correct, for some time that portion will show negative returns for a short while. That should not perturb us as these investments would have been done at reasonable valuation Zone.

Read 7 tweets

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