Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #CentralBanks

Most recents (16)

Lets talk about the #MonetaryPolicy Implications for #FinancialInnovation / #FinTech...
I am sure by this time we have all heard of the phenomenon known as #FinTech. Recently, I used the #GoogleTrends platform to ascertain the degree of search interest in the term "FinTech". The graphs depict a surge in interest from around 2014...
I took the #GoogleTrends analysis a bit further and determined where (geographically) interest in the search term #FinTech was most pronounced...
Read 13 tweets
Lets talk #New #Tools for #MonetaryPolicy...
The #Global #Financial #Crisis of 2007/08 taught the policy making world that something special beyond #Conventional #MonetaryPolicy was necessary to lift economies out of the economic malaise...tinkering with the key rates was not enough anymore...
To this end, #centralbanks in the developed world (The US, UK, Japan, The EuroArea) adopted what they termed #UnconventionalMonetaryPolicy #UMP which is characterised by #ForwardGuidance #NegativeInterestRatePolicy & #QuantitativeEasing...but, have they helped?
Read 10 tweets
It's rather baffling, why so many think that #recession of 2020 could be avoided.

Yes, the #Fed has cut rates aggressively and started to support the #stockmarkets and hedge-fund leverage, but it will not save the real #economy. 👇

#recession thread. 1/
gnseconomics.com/en_US/2019/12/…
We first warned of the impending #recession in March 2019. Then, before the aggressive rate cuts and Not-QE, the timeline for its onset was Q1 2020.

In our recent forecast, the onset has been postponed between Q2 and Q3 due to the aggressive stimulus. 2/
gnseconomics.com/en_US/2019/03/…
Why so little has changed in our forecast?

First, it should be noted that the #repo -panic of the #Fed was justified. It's evident that there are serious problems in the financial plumbing.

Without Fed's swift response, we'd be in recession already. 3/
gnseconomics.com/en_US/2019/12/…
Read 19 tweets
There are still stubborn misconceptions on the role of #China in the global #economy , especially what comes to 2019.

It should be acknowledged that China leveraging/deleveraging has been the single most important driver of the global business cycle. 👇

Thread. 1/
#economy
#China leveraging/deleveraging drives the #Eurozone and global economies with a lag of 3-4 mo.

In Q1 2019 China broke all previous records in the growth of debt, and the same occurred in Q3 (and likely also in Q4).

Thus, 2019 marked the end of the "China deleveraging". 👇
2/
It's noteworthy that, when Beijing tried to deleverage in Q2 and in October, the economy tanked. This was quickly countered with another round of record-breaking stimulus.

Yet, economic growth has been sub-par all through the 2019 regardless of the massive stimulus. 3/
Read 10 tweets
So, why the collapse (not a recovery) of 2020?

1) There has not been an actual "recovery".
2) China running out of road.
3) Extension of the cycle through bailouts, alone.
4) No one left to "pivot" (bailout the markets).

Thread. 1/
gnseconomics.com/en_US/2019/12/…
I've been raising this graph several times.

Yet, some try to disregard it's message, which is extremely simple: global productivity growth has collapsed.

The most likely reasons are the growing share of zombie corporations and extremely low interest rates. 2/
The 'megalomanic' debt-stimulus, #China enacted in 2015-2017, effectively emptied China's coffers.

Corporations, households and banks have become such highly indebted that their ability to absorb more debt is gravely limited. 3/
gnseconomics.com/en_US/2019/11/…
Read 10 tweets
Many are hoping for a "recovery of 2020", but unfortunately we're going to the opposite direction.

In our latest forecast -report, we detail the reasons why. 👇

Everything starts with from the notion that tremors in the credit markets have started. 1/
gnseconomics.com/en_US/2019/12/…
Both the collateralized loan obligation (CLO) and leveraged-loans markets have been "acting out" since summer.

For example, the leveraged loans market was hit with a deluge of downgrades, exceeding upgrades at a pace last seen in 2009. 2/
wolfstreet.com/2019/11/04/lev…
Moreover, the IMF warned that in a global downturn, corporate debt at risk of default would rise to $19 trillion in eight major economies.

So, it's no wonder that there have been jitters also in the junk bond markets, while they have subdued lately. 3/
forbes.com/sites/mayrarod…
Read 11 tweets
I've written on this few times before, but I just cannot help it.

It's truly strange how analysts and economists keep making predictions about "stable growth", while we've been in constant state of central bank induced bailouts for over two years.

Why the complacency? 1/
The first two bailouts are not generally acknowledged, but they were important.

In November 2017, the BoJ and PBoC stopped the rout in the junk bond ETF:s that threatened to spread to the asset markets.

This went mostly unnoticed, like the following bailout. 2/
@GeoffCutmore
In March 2018, the #ECB was forced to bailout European corporate debt markets that became clogged due to over-issuance, as corporations were preparing for the end of QE and rise in interest rates.

The BoJ also participated by increasing its stock ETF purchases. 3/
@oliviabvoz
Read 10 tweets
What baffles me, is the inability of many analysts to understand, how many economic 'close calls' we've had during the past two years.

In this thread, I'll explain the desperation of the central bankers and the artificiality of this late-cycle.

Their latest panic. 👇1/
In March 2017 we had realized that:

1) the global economy had not really recovered from the Panic of 2008, and
2) that the global banking sector was still in recession.

This was visible in flows of cross-border loans and the issuance of international debt securities. 2/
It turned out that #centralbanks had taken their place in providers of (artificial) global liquidity.

The comparison between international debt issuance, GDP and the global CB balance sheet is rather rough, but makes the point. 👇

CB:s had become the global market support. 3/
Read 14 tweets
Many are hoping that the renewed global monetary easing would lead to a "recovery of 2020".

This hope is seriously misplaced.

#China has been driving this cycle, and is now out of effective means to stimulate.

Global #recession approaches. 1/ 👇
gnseconomics.com/en_US/2019/11/…
There are two stubborn misconceptions going around in the FinTwit.

The first one is the nature of the current expansion, and the second one is the role of central banks in it.

For two years, we've been explaining that China has driven this cycle. 👇 2/
gnseconomics.com/en_US/2017/09/…
This is all but obvious considering the data on capital investments, money creation and the turning points of the "leading indicators".

It's equally obvious that the Chinese economy has grown increasingly unproductive. 3/
Read 7 tweets
A thread summarizing ALL of our analysis on #China .

I think this is required as there are still misconceptions what's going on in the world #economy at the moment.

Everything starts with the notion that China (not the #Fed or the #ECB) has been driving the global cycle. 1/
This was revealed to us, when we were making an in-depth analysis on the world economy in early 2017 to understand, why it had recovered with a break-neck speed from the deep slump of 2015.

The 'culprit' for this mystery turned out to be the shadow banks of China. 2/
Their size to GDP three-folded in just one year, meaning that in 2016 China launched what was probably the biggest debt-stimulus operation ever seen.

It was no surprise that the world economy made a miraculous recovery.

But, China had been on a perilous path much longer. 3/
Read 15 tweets
HSBC 1/3: #CentralBanks: The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (#MPC) voted unanimously to keep its benchmark rate at 0.75% in September, as widely expected. It also voted to keep its asset purchase target at GBP 435bn.
HSBC 2/3: The MPC cited global weakness and the US-China trade war as weighing on the economy through weak exports, and that Brexit had weighed on business confidence and investment. Furthermore, the committee cut its growth forecast for Q3 to 0.2% from 0.3% as it signalled that
HSBC 3/3: policy rates could be cut if the UK’s departure from the EU continues to be delayed. The statement reiterated the line that rates could go in “either direction” under a no-deal break from the EU.
Read 3 tweets
There are stubborn misconceptions about what has happened in the global #economy since 2009.

The most important fact, everyone should understand, is that this has been the decade of #China .

This is visible, e.g., in the global non-financial private debt.👇1/
China has also driven global capital investment cycle accounting over 50% of all investments to physical capital in major industrial nations since 2009. 2/
But, China has accomplished this through wasteful investments, which has effectively annihilated it's productivity growth. 3/
Read 7 tweets
Abro hilo con algunas lecturas -tanto texto académico como ensayo-, para empezar a entender mejor temas financieros y #monetarios. Abro con 4 clásicos contemporáneos de @GeorgeSelgin (#must). #money #libros
Otro clásico contemporáneo y quizás la mejor puerta de entrada a la materia para el lector español es "Dinero, crédito bancario y ciclos económicos" (@UnionEditorial1) de J Huerta de Soto (en inglés disponible PDF en @mises). #money #banking
La temprana Teoría del Crédito y del Dinero de L von Mises (1912), que parte de la base trabajos previos de Bhöm von Bawerk, y especialmente de "Capital & Interest" (1880s), están disponibles en PDF en @mises son los dos grandes pilates Ta moderna crédito y ciclos económicos.
Read 17 tweets
@Halsrethink @RemainSovereign @TFMetals @BullionStar @jameshenryand @michaellebowitz @dlacalle_IA @DA_Stockman @RonPaul @RonPaulInstitut @MarkTOByrne @MarkYusko @ErikSTownsend @AndrewBellBNN @realDonaldTrump @LouDobbs @Varneyco @MariaBartiromo @gatewaypundit @JeffSnider_AIP @TruthGundlach @epomboy @PaulCraigRobert @LanceRoberts @TheBubbleBubble @POTUS @TayTayLLP @ronanmanly @jimiuorio @MoneyMetals @stranahan When a central banker or economist mentions 'stimulus', they are talking about diluting the currency through debt currency issuance - to create REAL GROWTH.

This is the insanity & silly talk promoted by central bankers globally.

Nobody asks the question.

#centralbanking #gold
Read 55 tweets
🇬🇧 #TheRainMakers🇺🇸@realDonaldTrump🇺🇸
🇺🇸 Trump: Federal Reserve is Biggest Threat, Raising Rates Too Fast 🔗breitbart.com/video/2018/10/…

from🇺🇸Q Post: 138 -12 Nov 2017
FACT: US Federal Reserve is a privately owned company
sitting on its very own patch of land, immune to the US laws
Q
POTUS Restructuring Federal Reserve (Proof)
🇺🇸Q Post: 1695 - 25 Jul 2018 - 4:18:14 PM
🔗cnbc.com/2018/07/20/tru…📁
🔗cnbc.com/2018/07/23/str…📁
2+2 confirmations.
Fast.
We will never again be under their control.
Q

Take a look at the January 1988 Cover of the Economist
The only problem our economy has is the Fed. They don’t have a feel for the Market, they don’t understand necessary Trade Wars or Strong Dollars or even Democrat Shutdowns over Borders. The Fed is like a powerful golfer who can’t score because he has no touch - he can’t putt!
Read 12 tweets
Read 4 tweets

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