Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #CentralBanks

Most recents (24)

1/Thanks very much to my old friend @steve_sedgwick @SquawkBoxEurope for the chat this morning
2/We looked at #Growth v #Value, the #US v ROW, we touched on #bonds and borrowing, #money supply, #inflation, #lockdown, #commodities & #gold - all in under 10 mins!
3/If that was all a bit rushed, here follow the notes I sent to accompany our chat:-

#macro, #markets
Read 12 tweets
We are #pleased to #conclude our marathon of 4 consecutive #IMF #TechnicalAssistance #missions with productive outcomes for #IslamicFinance, despite the very challenging constraints and limitations.
The first six months of the year under #COVID19, a #NewNormal", have been fantastic intellectually and fulfilling.
The support of colleagues from the #IMF and Central Bank of #Djibouti; Central Bank of #Yemen; Central Bank of #Iraq, and Central Bank of #Libya have been excellent for #Islamicfinance IMF missions through #Cisco #webmex.

Now it is time to have a little break!!
Read 5 tweets
A THREAD on my new paper with @arebucci1 on the impact of #COVID-19-related central bank long-term asset purchases of sovereign debt (#QuantitativeEasing) on government bond yields in both Developed and #EmergingMarkets (1/n) papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cf…
We analyze 20 #COVID-19 QE announcements made by 17 central banks (9 DM central banks, 11 EM central banks) using the classic event study framework of FFJR(1969), extending work of Vissing-Jorgensen and Krishnamurthy (2011) and Swanson (2011) who analyze Great Recession QE (2/n)
Starting with the Fed which led the pack with new QE: the 1-day impact of the Fed's $700 bn MBS+Treasury #QE 3/16 announcement on the US 10-year yield was -0.21% and "unlimited" QE announcement on 3/23 was -0.16%, only slightly smaller than past #GreatRecession era QE (3/n)
Read 9 tweets
Many seem to be unwilling or unable to grasp the dire economic consequences of the #COVID19 pandemic.

In this thread I try, based on the evolution of our thinking, to explain, why we are heading to a deep and prolonged depression.

First, an intro and a reminder. 👇1/17
The situation in the world #economy would not be so alarming without this. 👇

We have lived in unprecedented economic expansion with stagnated productivity growth!

I cannot stress enough, how strange and troubling this is. 2/
We analyzed its implications thoroughly in the March 2019 issue of our Q-Review.

"Because zombie companies can fail at any time, ..., they create a huge risk for both private investors and the global asset markets." 3/
gnseconomics.com/2019/03/05/q-r…
Read 17 tweets
This is something I've planned to do for a long time. There are wide-spread misconceptions on #centralbanks that need to be set straight.

So, a (long) thread on why Central bankers are not "superheroes".

Let's start with a cheerful poll. 😊 1/26
#Fed #ECB #economics
It seems that majority of my followers are both insightful and wise 👍.

The results also lead to the conclusion, which I now try to elaborate a bit more. 2/
@Amdalleq @CNBCJulianna @KellyCNBC @DiMartinoBooth @KatriKulmuni @bondstrategist @BradHuston
First, few words on QE.

The purchases of assets in QE-programs are done through commercial banks.

Banks buy the securities from other banks, investors and households and the central bank credits the reserve balances to the accounts of banks to balance their balance sheet. 3/
Read 27 tweets
I prepared a few notes for the guys @SquawkBoxEurope

Happy to share them here with you:-

1/x
Even before #coronvairus struck, there were signs taht the bloom was off the rose:-
2/x
Exposures were high going in and - in some cases - have only gone up amid the turmoil:-
3/x
Read 10 tweets
👀 ATTACK COMMS

Hawaii Police Bulletin comms
Today 3/30/20
MATCH
Big Island, HI News comms 7/7/19 Claiming Plantation Mall FL explosion the day after.

Each has
CCC/333
7 Magic Square

➡TODAY'S COMM CALLS FOR MASS FATALITIES.

local.nixle.com/alert/7905296/…

google.com/amp/s/www.west…
1/
First, the matching occultism numerology 7 Magic Squares.

Today
262
294

Across
2+6+2=10 1+0=1
2+9+4=15 1+5=6
1+6=7

Down
262+294=556 5+5+6=16
1+6=7

10.9% same line, omit zero
🎯 COVID 19

"seven fatal" ('spell'ed)
"7 fatalities"

DUI
during
D stacked, 4th letter, 44/BHO/HI

2/
See "Plantation Closed" X2
above pic of HI News 7/7.

Here's Another Plantation 77° w/ Crescent Moon / Islam symbol.

"23 injured"
23 designates False Flag attack.

"23 injured" 'lava bomb' tour boat, 7/16/18. Islam New Year, John Jr Anniversary.

3/
Read 16 tweets
Some #EmergingMarkets thoughts. The shock is unprecedented. Q1 GDP likely contracted -15% (annualized). If #China indeed recovers, Q2 headline number may look better. But, X-China, the pain has only just started. 1/6
The nature of the shock is complicated. Domestic factors (lower consumption and investment) is combining with external shocks (collapsing exports; imploding commodity prices; lower remittances; & disappearing tourists). 2/6
To that, add the tightening of financial conditions including, most insidiously, the severe #USD liquidity shortage (exacerbated by portfolio outflows). Among others, the crunch will hurt a highly indebted corporate sector. 3/6
Read 6 tweets
Reading all these calls for ‘stimulus’, one wonders, if Constantine XI had had a ‘technology we call the printing press’ would his city not have fallen to the besieging Ottomans in 1453.
Shame he hadn’t heard of Gutenberg’s newly invented gizmo...
#Fed #UST #coronavirus #ECB
“The bad news, Tommy, iss for your ze war iss over. Ze good is, your RAF has parachuted in a packet of £5 notes to ease your captivity”
#coronavirus #stimulus #centralbanks #HelicopterMoney
Imagine if, during the Berlin Airlift, General Lucius Clay had not bothered flyng in food and fuel, but had just dropped Greenbacks.

You think Stalin might have chuckled?
#stimulus #coronavirus #COVID2019 #centralbanks #fiscal
Read 9 tweets
Lets talk about #Global #CentralBanks and their #MonetaryPolicy stances given #COVID19. Specifically, lets ask ourselves: "Can Central Banks Help Fight COVID-19?"
The best place to start is to note that #Global #Growth was already facing considerable downside risks before the #COVID19 outbreak December 2019. The slow down in global growth came on the back of trade (china vs. us) and geopolitical (Brexit etc.) tensions...
To this end, institutions such as the #IMF & #WorldBank revised down their 2020 #Economic #Growth outlook & emphasised the need for a more coordinated #policy approach between #monetary & #fiscal policy around the globe to "rescue" growth from the doldrums...
Read 14 tweets
Many are calling for a rate cut on the #Fed, but there's very little central banks can do at this point.

A thread on, why #centralbanks will be unable to stop any repercussions from the #CoronavirusOutbreak .

We naturally start with the balance sheets. 👇1/12
Which are just massive.

The very role of any easing (quantitative or normal) is to push interest rates down.

In addition, it was the purpose of QE -programs to also create a "wealth effect", by increasing the values of financial assets and making people feel "rich". 2/
We detailed the channels of effects of QE programs in the Q-Review 1/2018. 👉gnseconomics.com/wp-content/upl…

Even today, the effects are not understood by all, but they depend heavily on the ability of the programs to push down (converge) the yields of bonds in different classes. 👇 2/
Read 13 tweets
This is a topic we raised in September 2017, but I haven't commented this for a while.

Thus, I think it's good time to remind all, why we have experienced so nascent recovery from the GFC.

A thread on why global growth has waned.

We, naturally, start with this. 👇 1/
Global productivity growth stagnated in 2012. This is something that should not happen outside major crises, as shown in the figure above.

So, what's going on?

We dealt with the topic extensively in the March 2019 issue of our Q-Review. 👇2/
gnseconomics.com/en_US/2019/03/…
Already in June 2013, we warned that:

"It is possible that the banking sector and the world economy were saved by using too strong methods in 2008. As a consequence of this, it is also possible that the world economy is more like zombie economy, where... 3/
Read 17 tweets
Lets talk about the #FED's #Outlook on #US & #Global #Growth & where it sees #MonetaryPolicy #Regulation & #Supervision going given the #Zero / #EffectiveLowerBound...
Yesterday, 6th February 2020, the #FederalReserve (FED) Vice Chair for #Supervision addressed the #Money Marketeers of #NewYorkUniversity in #NewYork. His address, in the form of a speech, was coined "The #Economic Outlook, #MonetaryPolicy, and the Demand for #Reserves"...
Considering that the #FED is one of the most influential #CentralBanks in the world, it pays to get as much information from them as possible, especially when it comes to #monetarypolicy conduct and the #Global impacts thereof...
Read 11 tweets
1. THREAD on the Panic of 1819.

I've written a review of Andrew Browning's book for the Economic Historian.

The full review is here: economic-historian.com/2020/01/the-pa…

This thread contains some of my thoughts + images.
2. Students of economic history in the early American republic often equate the Panic of 1819 with the name Murray Rothbard, the famous libertarian economist who wrote the definitive account of this subject as his 1962 doctoral dissertation.
3. After nearly six decades, we finally have an update in Andrew Browning’s The Panic of 1819: The First Great Depression, the publication of which fell on the 200th anniversary of this watershed event.
Read 81 tweets
A few words on the mistakes inherent in #centralbanks' blind fixation on engineering =CPI increases of the order of 2%
1/x
If technological advance, entrepreneurial innovation, beneficent network effects from widening circles of trade are producing more 'utility' at lower cost, prices should be allowed to FALL accordingly to reflect that greater plenty. 2/x
To decry such a phenomenon as 'deflation' is arrant nonsense: to try to prop these prices up out of monetary necromancy is to inject excess money/credit when that medium is already acquiring an extra capacity to conduct exchange. 3/x
Read 11 tweets
Lets talk about how important it is to frequently #Review #CentralBank #MonetaryPolicy #Frameworks...
I will set things off by pointing out that the various facets of #BusinessCycles (early, mid, late / boom & busts) consistently keep reminding us that what goes up, must come down. We might find ourselves in a prolonged #expansion, but eventually it decelerates into a #recession
As part of #Macroeconomic management (counter cyclical), a #CentralBank's objective (through its #MonetaryPolicy) is to maintain #PriceStability & #FinancialStability & in other cases, to promote #FullEmployment. It does this hand in hand with #FiscalPolicy...
Read 15 tweets
Let us talk about recent #Trends in #Global #Monetary #Policy, say, from 2015 to 2019...
Before I do that, let me give you an updated list of #CentralBank #MonetaryPolicyCommittee meetings for 2020...The matrix attached shows MPC dates for #CBL #SARB #FED and #ECB...
Surely we are conversant with the terms #dovish #hawkish #loose #tight #expansionary & #contractionary when it comes to #monetarypolicy jargon. What did the #global monetary policy landscape look like from 2015 to 2019? Was it loose or tight, expansionary or contractionary?
Read 12 tweets
Lets talk about the #MonetaryPolicy Implications for #FinancialInnovation / #FinTech...
I am sure by this time we have all heard of the phenomenon known as #FinTech. Recently, I used the #GoogleTrends platform to ascertain the degree of search interest in the term "FinTech". The graphs depict a surge in interest from around 2014...
I took the #GoogleTrends analysis a bit further and determined where (geographically) interest in the search term #FinTech was most pronounced...
Read 13 tweets
Lets talk #New #Tools for #MonetaryPolicy...
The #Global #Financial #Crisis of 2007/08 taught the policy making world that something special beyond #Conventional #MonetaryPolicy was necessary to lift economies out of the economic malaise...tinkering with the key rates was not enough anymore...
To this end, #centralbanks in the developed world (The US, UK, Japan, The EuroArea) adopted what they termed #UnconventionalMonetaryPolicy #UMP which is characterised by #ForwardGuidance #NegativeInterestRatePolicy & #QuantitativeEasing...but, have they helped?
Read 10 tweets
It's rather baffling, why so many think that #recession of 2020 could be avoided.

Yes, the #Fed has cut rates aggressively and started to support the #stockmarkets and hedge-fund leverage, but it will not save the real #economy. 👇

#recession thread. 1/
gnseconomics.com/en_US/2019/12/…
We first warned of the impending #recession in March 2019. Then, before the aggressive rate cuts and Not-QE, the timeline for its onset was Q1 2020.

In our recent forecast, the onset has been postponed between Q2 and Q3 due to the aggressive stimulus. 2/
gnseconomics.com/en_US/2019/03/…
Why so little has changed in our forecast?

First, it should be noted that the #repo -panic of the #Fed was justified. It's evident that there are serious problems in the financial plumbing.

Without Fed's swift response, we'd be in recession already. 3/
gnseconomics.com/en_US/2019/12/…
Read 19 tweets
There are still stubborn misconceptions on the role of #China in the global #economy , especially what comes to 2019.

It should be acknowledged that China leveraging/deleveraging has been the single most important driver of the global business cycle. 👇

Thread. 1/
#economy
#China leveraging/deleveraging drives the #Eurozone and global economies with a lag of 3-4 mo.

In Q1 2019 China broke all previous records in the growth of debt, and the same occurred in Q3 (and likely also in Q4).

Thus, 2019 marked the end of the "China deleveraging". 👇
2/
It's noteworthy that, when Beijing tried to deleverage in Q2 and in October, the economy tanked. This was quickly countered with another round of record-breaking stimulus.

Yet, economic growth has been sub-par all through the 2019 regardless of the massive stimulus. 3/
Read 10 tweets

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