Thread by @SabFis3

There is one aspect that is often ommitted in the discussion about military of negotiated solution of #Russia’s war against #Ukraine: the likely future development in the Russian occupied territories and in the Eastern Europe and Europe (!) more broadly.
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#Ukraine wants to reinstate its legitimate sovereign control over these territories. The war damages there are immense. Unless Russia is forced to pay #reparations, Ukraine and its supporters will be saddled with the monstrous costs of post-conflict economic reconstruction.
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But at least there is a pospect of reconstruction within the borders of a Ukrainian state that is moving towards membership in the #EuropeanUnion.
If #Russia keeps those territories under its control or occupies even more Ukrainian territory – what will happen there?
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Three decades of Moscow sponsored de facto-statehood and particularly the past nine years in Donbas and Crimea give a foretaste of what awaits Ukraine and Eastern Europe in such a case: the emergence of a security black whole of unprecedented scale,
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an area which would not only be devastated by Russia’s own war, but also marked by lawlessness, banditry, and rampant human rights violations (think Crimean Tatars and the fate of basically everyone not in line with the occupational regimes in the Donbas 2014-2022).
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We are talking about 20 percent (at least, but in Putin’s dreams: much more) of Ukraine’s territory and millions of inhabitants. Together with the #dictatorships in #Belarus and Russia proper, these territories would form a Bermuda triangle of instability,
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threatening not only Ukraine, but all states in the vicinity, including EU and NATO member states – for years to come. This scenario needs to be spelled out and factored into any discussion about Western approaches, including on arms deliveries.
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Ukraine needs every support possible, including battle tanks, to stop Russia’s expansion and regain control of its territory. This is not (only) about values, it is about security interest and European security.
#Freetheleopard #Ramstein
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*military OR negotiated

And (sorry) Moscow-sponsored de facto-statehood on various unresolved conflicts in the region… it doesn’t help to rush…