2/8 The first counter argument is that this is somewhat more a return to the past with TTF generally trading way above Henry Hub.
Chart via @MiguelGilTertre
2/10 I have written a number of threads since March this year about my assumption that global oil demand peaked in 2019. The reasons can be found in the threads listed below.
3/10 The rebound from COVID crisis level oil demand in 2020 & firm crude prices have been mistaken by many as a return to perpetual demand growth. Instead the rebound to 'normal' economic activity met inelastic supply taking longer to rebound further elevated by the πΊπ¦ invasion.
1/13 A few thoughts on nuclear energy as the white knight of European energy security and independence against the background of Russian fossil fuel dependence.
2/13 Let me say upfront that I am not against nuclear energy but it has to make sense. For example Germany made a mistake in shutting down nuclear energy quickly for political reasons. A better approach would have been to sweat the nuclear assets as long as reasonably possible.
3/13 Go for the shut down of the most expensive/dirty power sources first & built up alternative energy sources & storage in parallel. Less (Russian) gas used for electricity generation in that scenario as well. However it is what it is & the clock can't be turned back a decade.
Who wins the race between peak/falling oil consumption and supply constraints? #oil #XLE
2/16 I seek out information which does not confirm my thesis that oil consumption is peaking for good.
I listened to J Young on @JackFarley96 podcast this morning. The relevant part I disagree with is at 8:29 min "oil demand continues to grow at 1% annually".
3/16 I am not trying to pick on one particular investor. There are others.
Below is past global oil consumption data and current forecast for 2022 by eia.gov . The data includes the downward revision in March by 1 mil barrel by the EIA. Data via @GregorMacdonald
3/6 Europe has made progress in filling up its gas storages as the weather has been getting warmer and less gas is used for heating. Current EU-27 gas storage level has reached 39.48% as of May 15th compared to 26% as of April 26th. Source: agsi.gie.eu
Stock market decline of 30 to 40% in isolation most likely won't cause a FED pivot. Financial (in)-stability the main potential driver for a FED pivot. Watch the US $. #FederalReserve #inflation #NASDAQ
2/13 "Don't fight the FED" is investment advise with a lot of muscle memory. Over the last three decades stock market investors have gotten used to the FED coming to the rescue when markets are down 20+ %.
3/13 Greenspan 1997/Long Term Capital Management, Greenspan again 2001/Internet Bubble, Bernanke 2008/Great Financial Crisis and Powell in 2019/Repo Crisis are prime examples. While the S&P is not quite down 20% from its peak, the NASDAQ and Russell 2000 are already there.