1/4 Macrovoices Podcast Episode 334 with guest @Go_Rozen

From the transcript: "we just got back from πŸ‡©πŸ‡ͺ, the Germans are basically resigned to the fact that they are not going to have electricity this winter".

What was/is the reality?

#electricity #germany #EnergyCrisis
2/2 Actual situation up to January 24th 2023 for the month of January (peak of winter in πŸ‡©πŸ‡ͺ):

πŸ‡©πŸ‡ͺ biggest net exporter of electricity in Europe.
3/4 Same situation for December 2022. December average temperatures were -1.8C cooler than 5 year average.
4/4 Same situation (exception Norway) for November 2022.
November average temperatures were +1.1C warmer than 5 year average.

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More from @jens39630674

Jan 24
1/8 Forward curves for πŸ‡ͺπŸ‡Ί gas prices (TTF) show falling prices but levels remain double πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ benchmark (Henry Hub) until 2031.

Thus the 'Doomsday crowd' forecasts de-industrialization of πŸ‡ͺπŸ‡Ί.

I am positioned the other way.

Chart via @GeorgZachmann
#gas #gasprices #EnergyCrisis
2/8 The first counter argument is that this is somewhat more a return to the past with TTF generally trading way above Henry Hub.
Chart via @MiguelGilTertre
3/8 In this context I also recommend to read the Substack article from @adam_tooze from September 2022. In essence he refutes the 'cheap Russian gas hypothesis' for πŸ‡©πŸ‡ͺ and focuses on the relevance of energy efficiency.
adamtooze.substack.com/p/chartbook-15…
Read 8 tweets
Jul 10, 2022
1/10 Focus on demand destruction in oil getting more coverage.
Demand destruction meets supply issues.

#Oil , #xle , #CrudeOil , #energy
2/10 I have written a number of threads since March this year about my assumption that global oil demand peaked in 2019. The reasons can be found in the threads listed below.
3/10 The rebound from COVID crisis level oil demand in 2020 & firm crude prices have been mistaken by many as a return to perpetual demand growth. Instead the rebound to 'normal' economic activity met inelastic supply taking longer to rebound further elevated by the πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦ invasion.
Read 11 tweets
Jun 5, 2022
1/13 A few thoughts on nuclear energy as the white knight of European energy security and independence against the background of Russian fossil fuel dependence.

Not really...

#Nuclear
#EU
#electricity
2/13 Let me say upfront that I am not against nuclear energy but it has to make sense. For example Germany made a mistake in shutting down nuclear energy quickly for political reasons. A better approach would have been to sweat the nuclear assets as long as reasonably possible.
3/13 Go for the shut down of the most expensive/dirty power sources first & built up alternative energy sources & storage in parallel. Less (Russian) gas used for electricity generation in that scenario as well. However it is what it is & the clock can't be turned back a decade.
Read 14 tweets
May 31, 2022
1/16 Lots of noise on oil again at the moment.

Who wins the race between peak/falling oil consumption and supply constraints?
#oil
#XLE
2/16 I seek out information which does not confirm my thesis that oil consumption is peaking for good.
I listened to J Young on @JackFarley96 podcast this morning. The relevant part I disagree with is at 8:29 min "oil demand continues to grow at 1% annually".
3/16 I am not trying to pick on one particular investor. There are others.
Below is past global oil consumption data and current forecast for 2022 by eia.gov . The data includes the downward revision in March by 1 mil barrel by the EIA. Data via @GregorMacdonald
Read 17 tweets
May 16, 2022
1/6 A quick update on gas storage levels in Europe (a follow up to my thread from April 10th.).

Currently Europe is on course to reach 80% storage level before October.
#gasprices
2/6 Reuters reported a few days ago that Ukraine (a major transit route of Russian gas into Europe) is stopping some gas deliveries into Europe.

reuters.com/business/energ…
3/6 Europe has made progress in filling up its gas storages as the weather has been getting warmer and less gas is used for heating. Current EU-27 gas storage level has reached 39.48% as of May 15th compared to 26% as of April 26th. Source: agsi.gie.eu
Read 7 tweets
May 15, 2022
1/13 Where is the FED Put?

Stock market decline of 30 to 40% in isolation most likely won't cause a FED pivot. Financial (in)-stability the main potential driver for a FED pivot. Watch the US $.
#FederalReserve
#inflation
#NASDAQ
2/13 "Don't fight the FED" is investment advise with a lot of muscle memory. Over the last three decades stock market investors have gotten used to the FED coming to the rescue when markets are down 20+ %.
3/13 Greenspan 1997/Long Term Capital Management, Greenspan again 2001/Internet Bubble, Bernanke 2008/Great Financial Crisis and Powell in 2019/Repo Crisis are prime examples. While the S&P is not quite down 20% from its peak, the NASDAQ and Russell 2000 are already there.
Read 15 tweets

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