The risk factor with energy investments continues to drop. The combined loan book by Canada's 6 big banks shows a 92% decrease in impaired loans to Oil & Gas (to $230 mln). What are the additional implications? -a thread #oott #energy #oilandgas
The banks comfort in the Oil & Gas sector plays a major role in capital spending plans (and ability for M&A). Despite loan impairments down, the banks have still reduced their overall lending to Oil & Gas by 54% since 1Q20 to $27 bln.
On a relative basis, Oil & Gas is now only 1.8% of the CDN bank wholesale loan business. As ancillary fees decline, so to has desire to lend, especially to smaller-cap E&Ps. The result is less sector growth, less 'farm-teams' for the majors, less exploration, etc
Will lending pick up? Maybe. Oil & Gas loan impairment is now 0.8% (which compares to all business loans at 0.5%). Overall, the ‘risk’ the big 6 banks have with Oil & Gas has clearly subsided. In any event, this should give comfort to equity investors coming back to the sector

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More from @JeremyMcCreaCFA

Feb 8
These are the EIA's key forecast revisions impacting natural gas markets. Although many of the adjustments are small, it shows the directional bias within their models. Overall, negative revisions for production; upward revisions in consumption for 2024, as NYMEX prices come down Image
LNG volumes are taking longer to pick-up in early 2023 but ultimately are still expected to grow to 13.5 bcf/d by YE 2024 #LNG #Natgas Image
Natural gas consumption doesn't quite reach levels seen last year (in both winter and summer months). This is typically the result of weather; with current demand being revised down slightly from last month Image
Read 5 tweets
Feb 7
EIA came out with their Short Term Energy Outlook
- These are the largest revisions in key data points impacting oil markets today. Although many of the adjustments are small, it shows the directional bias the EIA sees with its forecast models - a thread
#oott #oilandgas #WTI Image
With China showing more signs of opening, oil demand was revised up 1% (160 mb/d). Is there more oil demand revisions to come? Possibly. Expected crude demand in 2023 is still only up 5% to 15.8 mln b/d (from 14.4 mln b/d in 2020) #oott Image
U.S. oil production in 2024 was lowered 1.4% (150 mb/d) - with much of this oil supply decline near the back-end of the year. As earning season progresses (and capex budgets are revised), we may see more estimate revisions to come #crude #permian #eagleford #midland #bakken Image
Read 6 tweets
Dec 30, 2022
NYMEX natural gas prices have recently slumped, but could this reverse? The U.S. has relied on ~5.5 bcf/d of 'cheap' Canadian natgas imports but that may soon end

With W. CDN natgas storage at record lows now (only 64% full), the AECO / NYMEX diff is nearly gone.

A thread: Image
2/ AECO prices are now C$6.85/mcf (to incentivize natural gas to stay in Canada). Previously, when W. CDN storage levels were this low (2019), we saw very little CDN natural gas exports. We likely begin to see a drop in exports, that should be bullish for NYMEX natgas pricing Image
3/ Despite CDN natural gas production at record levels (16.8 bcf/d and ~1 bcf/d higher than last year), summer maintenance issues and other factors have yet to contribute to higher CDN natgas storage levels #AECO #LNG #energy Image
Read 4 tweets
Nov 18, 2022
Thread: Why has Oil & Gas been so volatile? Since 2018, the majority of all CDN E&P buying has come from high-turnover funds. Thus any WTI weakness had them rushing to the exits. Encouragingly, low-turnover funds have become the main buyer in 3Q

More energy inst. buying trends:
2/ As CDN Oil & Gas names hinted at bigger dividends & more growth post Q2 earnings, we saw these 'style' of funds be the dominant buyer in Q3. This theme likely continues as balance sheets allow for more ‘shareholder friendly’ items and growth into 2023 #WTI
3/ Importantly, some of the largest global funds are now picking up CDN Oil & Gas names. Given their AUM size, it can take multiple quarters to establish a position, suggesting there is more large block buying to come in future quarters #energy #CrudeOil #OOTT
Read 6 tweets
Oct 26, 2022
Thread – The unemployment rate within CDN Oil & Gas continues to drop, now at 2.5% (w/ Alberta even lower at 1.8%). This budget season, even if mgmt teams wanted to spend more, finding technical staff is increasingly more difficult, likely capping any large capex plans #yyc #yeg
/2 There’s been quite the hiring spree over the last couple years, with jobs in the Exploration & Production group rising ~20% since Jan 2020. That said, levels have plateaued now, even while WTI oil and NYMEX natgas prices have increased, showing the difficulty in hiring #oott
/3 The issue is a declining E&P labour force, now down 6% from recent highs, (at 104k vs. 111k last June) and more meaningfully below 2016 levels. Finding qualified geologists / engineers is becoming increasingly challenging
Read 4 tweets
Oct 10, 2022
Could we see a NYMEX natural gas price spike this winter? The U.S. just might not be able to rely on 'cheap' Canada natgas imports w/ western CDN storage near record lows (at only 71% full).

A thread on CDN natural gas dynamics #AECO #oilandgas #LNG #alberta Image
A number of issues why CDN natgas storage is low, but we've already begun to see a reversal, with AECO difs improving dramatically over the last week (now at US$2.50/mcf). Last time storage was at current levels, the differential went on to reach $0.50/mcf a year later; 2/ #NYMEX Image
Despite CDN natural gas producing at record levels (17.2 bcf/d and ~1 bcf/d higher than last year), maintenance issues and other factors have yet to contribute to higher CDN natgas storage levels; /3 Image
Read 5 tweets

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