Thread by @alexanderkhara

Continuation...

EVOLUTION OF DIPLOMACY. "Nothing about 🇺🇦without 🇺🇦" is extremely important for the Ukrainian nation. But it also serves the interests of other nations because it doesn't allow 🇷🇺to turn its aggression against Ukraine into a broader confrontation with 🇺🇸.

It's a failed attempt of #Moscow to impose the great power competition scheme and trade its "cooperation" on global issues for allowing it to re-establish spheres of influence in Europe that justified the "suspension" of their participation in the new #START Treaty.

There are no immediate negative consequences of such a decision, and, highly likely, there won't be any in the future, for a new nuclear arms race for Moscow would mean old results – a state collapse.

The backward #Soviet political system and ineffective economic model didn't survive ideological bankruptcy, the arms race, the war in #Afghanistan, and #Chornobyl nuclear disaster.

There has been an evolution of Western thinking from compromising (territories) after stopping the 🇷🇺offense to not allowing 🇷🇺to win. However, not all nations readjusted their public goals to helping 🇺🇦to defeat 🇷🇺militarily.

There has been progress in hitting targets in #Crimea, initially with Ukrainian weapons and now with Western ones. Yet, there're still reservations about the prospects of the liberation of the peninsula. It all started in Crimea and should end there.

Anything less than returning Crimea back would mean a constant existential threat to Ukraine; an unsustainable economy (due to the disruption of Sea Lines of Communications); Russia's ability to project its power in the Black Sea region, the #Mediterranean, and the #MENA region;

and most importantly – ruined world order pillars (the UN Charter) and the European security framework (the Helsinki Final Act of 1975).

THE ENEMIES WITHIN. 🇷🇺 war of choice found its supporters in Free societies. For various reasons, far-right and far-left forces, though with different messaging, persuade the same goal: to undermine 🇺🇦ability to defend itself and restore its sovereignty and territorial integrity.

The pockets of russians who have been enjoying free societies are on the march to support #putin's regime and his genocidal war against Ukraine.

A NEW "NON-ALIGNED MOVEMENT." #China, #India, and many other developing states seized an opportunity to increase their trade with Russia, which is offering a bargain for its resources in desperate need of hard currency cash inflows.

Global South thinks it's not its fight and often frames the conflict as not so different from the 🇷🇺propaganda narrative. It's a challenge for the West because there could be no "Non-Aligned Movement" – either countries chose a democratic camp or they're in the authoritarian one

ZEITENWENDE. The European security environment has been dramatically changed. And the most drastic changes are undergoing in Germany. The German political class is abandoning the Ostpolitik, which has been a dogma for its strategy towards Russia and "in-between" since 1960th.

Before 24 February 2022, it could have been perceived as an anathema that a social democrat would supply weapons to Ukraine, which is in conflict with Russia. Not less unimaginable has been a decision by a social democrat to boost Bundeswehr warfighting capabilities.

ARSENAL OF DEMOCRACY. The United States averted isolationism and regained the Free world leader's status. Ukrainians have been saying that Ukraine is a fortress of democracy on the Eastern frontier and is fighting against tyranny.

Now, 🇺🇸 sees 🇷🇺 war as a global fight against autocracy against democracy. It became too evident that 🇷🇺success means norms and principles of international law have been demolished, as has been a rules-based world order.

The European allies of 🇺🇸 are united as never before and more ready to see challenges beyond the immediate neighborhood.

PEOPLES' REPUBLIC. Though China has suffered a lot from Putin's strategic blunder, it doesn't want to leave a junior partner behind. Russia's unnecessary war in the post COVID environment caused economic fallout in critical markets and globally.

The US regaining leadership and consolidating #NATO isn't something that #Beijing was willing to see. Free nations, including #Taiwan, are beefing up their defenses, while the US is adjusting its contingency plans regarding Taiwan.

In addition to strained trade relations, 🇨🇳 economic future and defense capabilities will be restrained by collectively imposed export controls. A possible decision to join 🇮🇷 and 🇰🇵 in supplying Russia with weapons would significantly damage 🇨🇳relations with the Free world.

HOPE. The Russian aggression against Ukraine is a watershed moment in European history and a factor that significantly affects the future of the globe. There will be no speedy decline of the West to the same extent as the rapid rise of China.

The challenges authoritarian states pose to the Free world and developing nations are being met with increasing readiness and resolve.

Though uncertainty and turbulence caused by the rise of Asia and the declining role of the Western powers will remain in place for years to come, an outline of an adjusted world order has started to appear.

Russia will have its last chance to become a normal nation-state when it is defeated in Ukraine militarily. Europe whole, free, and at peace may come true with Ukraine, Moldova, Georgia, and Belarus as integral parts of the European political and security space.

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