Security forces sustained increased pressure against Abdol Hamid and his supporters for the second consecutive week in #Zahedan, which could fuel further sectarian tensions. (2/6)
President Ebrahim #Raisi is expanding his efforts to deflect blame for internal crises onto Iran’s foreign enemies rather than taking personal accountability. (3/6)
President #Raisi and Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher #Ghalibaf likely remain divided on how to address and publicly discuss these internal crises. (4/6)
#Iran is trying to consolidate and increase its military presence in eastern #Syria, likely as part of an effort to secure critical routes leading deeper into the country. (5/6)
At least two protests occurred in two cities across two provinces in #Iran. (6/6)
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Reports suggest that chemical poisonings occurred in 116 separate schools--primarily girls' schools--in #Iran today. It’s difficult to imagine a scenario wherein the regime isn’t complicit in failing to protect these children. Here’s why: (1) #مسمومیت_دانشآموزان
Officials have blamed the poisonings on foreign actors. Others have suggested the attacks were the work of domestic groups who either aimed to punish girls sympathetic to the #Mahsa_Amini movement or sought to discourage girls from going to school. (2)
It's unclear why--if foreign actors are indeed behind ongoing poisonings--the regime has not deployed the surveillance and security capabilities that it used to violently suppress protests during the #Mahsa_Amini movement to protect Iranian girls. (3)
NEW | #Russian forces appear to have secured a sufficient positional advantage to conduct a turning movement against certain parts of #Bakhmut but have not yet forced Ukrainian forces to withdraw and will likely not be able to encircle the city soon.
The #WagnerGroup reportedly opened at least three new recruitment centers at #Russian sports clubs between March 2 and 4, possibly to augment Wagner’s recruitment base after losing access to prisoner recruits.
Russian forces reportedly continued offensive operations near #Svatove on March 4.
Russian authorities continued efforts to portray Russia as the only safe operator of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP), likely to constrain the IAEA presence at the ZNPP and compel the de facto recognition of Russian ownership of the ZNPP. (2/4)
Russian forces continued offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line. (3/4)
The regime is taking short-term measures to address economic grievances that will likely exacerbate #Iran’s economic crisis in the long run.
Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir #Abdollahian gave an interview with #CNN on March 1 likely in an attempt to convince the United States to return to the suspended nuclear negotiations.
NEW | The major phase of Russian offensive operations in Luhansk Oblast is underway, & Russia likely lacks sufficient uncommitted reserves to dramatically increase the scale or intensity of the offensive this winter. The latest from CTP & @TheStudyofWar: criticalthreats.org/analysis/russi…
Russian forces continued offensive operations northwest of Svatove and near Kreminna. Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces are strengthening frontline positions west and northwest of Kreminna. (2/4)
Russian forces likely secured marginal gains in the northern suburbs of Bakhmut and in the eastern outskirts of the city. Russian forces reportedly continued offensive operations along the western outskirts of Donetsk city and around Vuhledar. (3/4)