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Mar 13 • 4 tweets • 4 min read
#China is pursuing three roads to unification, not one, write Frederick Kagan and @DAlexBlumenthal on #Taiwan in @thehill. thehill.com/opinion/nation…
It seeks to persuade the Taiwanese people and the international community to accept unification peacefully. It seeks to coerce such acceptance through forceful means short of war. And it is preparing to compel unification through direct military action.
#China wins — and #Taiwan and the West lose — if #Beijing arrives in #Taipei by any one of these roads. The U.S. and its partners must block all three.
Learn more about #China’s three roads to #Taiwan in the latest report by the Coalition Defense of Taiwan, a project by @AEI and @TheStudyofWar: criticalthreats.org/analysis/china… Image

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More from @criticalthreats

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Mar 14
The #Iranian regime is preparing to deploy its security services to deter and likely crack down on the planned demonstrations during the upcoming Iranian holidays. Read today's update from @TheStudyofWar and CTP: criticalthreats.org/analysis/iran-… ImageImageImage
Student poisonings occurred on March 11, 12, and 13 in Iranian provinces that saw significant protest activity during the #MahsaAmini protest movement. #مسمومیت_دانش_آموزان
Iranian public figures continue to suggest that the regime or regime-adjacent actors are in some way responsible for the poisoning campaign primarily targeting schoolgirls in recent months.
Read 5 tweets
Critical Threats Profile picture
Mar 13
“China’s persuasion and coercion campaigns target the will of Taiwan, the United States, and America’s allies to defend the island.” Read the new report from @AEI and @TheStudyofWar:
criticalthreats.org/analysis/china… (1/4)
“US policy risks making a grave error by seeing China’s expanding military operations around Taiwan only through the prism of preparations for an invasion.” (2/4)
"The narrow focus on the threat of Chinese invasion...marginalizes an alternative compellence strategy that would flow far more naturally from China’s persuasion and coercion efforts—a strategy of isolation." (3/4)
Read 4 tweets
Critical Threats Profile picture
Mar 11
#Russian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson #Zakharova confirmed that there is infighting in the #Kremlin inner circle and that the Kremlin has ceded centralized control over Russian information space. Read the full update from CTP and @TheStudyofWar here:

criticalthreats.org/analysis/russi… Image
Russian forces continued offensive operations northeast of Kupyansk on March 11. Image
Russian forces continued ground attacks in and around #Bakhmut but did not make any confirmed advances within the city on March 11. Image
Read 5 tweets
Critical Threats Profile picture
Mar 7
NEW | The Battle of #Bakhmut may severely degrade the Wagner Group’s best forces, depriving #Russia of some of its most effective and most difficult-to-replace shock troops. Read the update from CTP and @TheStudyofWar : criticalthreats.org/analysis/russi…
#Russian forces continued to conduct ground attacks northwest of #Svatove and near #Kreminna.
#Russian forces secured territorial gains in #Bakhmut but have not yet encircled the city or forced #Ukrainian forces to withdraw.
Read 5 tweets
Critical Threats Profile picture
Mar 7
Over 110 separate student poisonings were reported throughout #Iran on March 6. Some have framed these incidents as “mass hysteria.” They’re not.  Someone is deliberately poisoning Iranian children—we’re just not sure who. (1)
#مسمومیت_دانش_آموزان
Hundreds of students—primarily #IranianSchoolgirls--reported chemical attacks in recent weeks, especially since March 1. Their symptoms include nausea, chest pain, numbness of limbs, and more. (2)

bbc.com/news/world-mid…
Some have compared these recent reports to previous instances of “mass sociogenic illnesses,” in which presenting symptoms are caused by anxiety rather than—in this case—chemical attacks. (3)

theguardian.com/world/2023/mar…
Read 16 tweets
Critical Threats Profile picture
Mar 6
ISW-CTP is publishing an abbreviated campaign update today, March 5. This report analyzes the ongoing Battle for #Bakhmut and Russian prospects for further offensive efforts. #Russia #Ukraine️ criticalthreats.org/analysis/russi…
#Ukrainian forces are likely conducting a limited tactical withdrawal in Bakhmut, although it is still too early to assess Ukrainian intentions concerning a complete withdrawal from the city.
The Ukrainian defense of Bakhmut remains strategically sound as it continues to consume Russian manpower and equipment as long as Ukrainian forces do not suffer excessive casualties.
Read 10 tweets

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