Thread by @BULLReturns

Thought of the day: Predicting cashflow generation 3-4 years out is a huge value add when selecting fresh asymmetric themes. For #commodities one is generally predicting spot price reversion to the mean. Entry cap should be <1x CF 3yrs out, our best performers <0.2x.

Examples:

$IREN entry cap <$80m .....peak CF > $250m

$BTU < $110m.....peak CF > $1.5bn

$RIG < $400m....peak CF > $2bn

$CKA < $20m....>$400m

$AEE < $15m.....>$250m

$WKT < $60m....>$120m

The fresh asymmetric themes return matrix over 5 years:

Entry <0.25x CF = 15-50x returns $AEE $BTU $RIG $CKA $IREN

0.5x = 8-15x $WKT

1x = 4-8x

2x = 2-4x

4x = <2x

Let's add $SBER <0.25x for 40x

Whats next you may ask?

- Interest sensitive sectors

- durable goods

- homebuilders

- REITs

- Financials