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@TheStudyofWar
Apr 5 • 3 tweets • 3 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
April 5 Assessment Highlight:

#Belarusian state media claimed that the Belarusian State Security Committee (KGB) reportedly arrested two men accused of attempting terrorist attacks in Grodno on April 4. 1/

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The KGB Chairman claimed that #Ukraine, Poland, Lithuania, Latvia & the Czech Republic are preparing militants to intensify terrorist activity against #Russia & Belarus this spring & that Ukrainian special services are curating these attacks using citizens of Belarus & Russia. 2/
These statements & arrests occurred ahead of President #Lukashenko’s meetings with President #Putin scheduled for April 5 & 6 and may be an effort to set info conditions for more #Russian-#Belarusian integration under the guise of combating terrorism. 3/3

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More from @TheStudyofWar

ISW Profile picture
Apr 6
#Zelensky stated during a press conference in #Poland on April 5 that #Ukrainian troops face a very challenging situation in #Bakhmut, and that #Kyiv will make the “corresponding decisions” if Ukrainian troops risk encirclement by #Russian forces. 1/

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#Zelensky’s statement is in line with other recent statements by #Ukrainian officials that Ukrainian military command will order a withdrawal from #Bakhmut when and if they deem a withdrawal to be the most strategically appropriate option. 2/
While it remains to be seen whether #Ukraine’s defense of #Bakhmut and its efficacy in fixing #Russian forces in the area is worth #Ukrainian losses (and we will likely be unable to assess this until observing the Ukrainian spring counteroffensive)... 3/
Read 4 tweets
ISW Profile picture
Apr 5
#Wagner Group financier Yevgeny #Prigozhin’s demonstrative response to the assassination of #Russian milblogger Maxim #Fomin (Vladlen Tatarsky) indicates Prigozhin likely believes that the attack was in part directed at himself. 1/4

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#Prigozhin held an event on April 4 at the remnants of the restaurant where #Fomin was killed by an improvised explosive device on April 2. Prigozhin claimed that he arrived at the scene from the #Bakhmut frontline as quickly as he could to commemorate Fomin. 2/4
#Prigozhin announced that he intends to expand the #Wagner-affiliated ultranationalist group that held #Fomin’s fatal event into a social movement that fights against external threats.

Prigozhin also noted that he will offer financial compensation to the event’s attendees. 3/4
Read 4 tweets
ISW Profile picture
Apr 3
New: Today's report discusses the assassination of prominent pro-war Russian milblogger Maksim Fomin (also known as Vladlen Tatarsky) in St. Petersburg on April 2. Fomin’s assassination may reveal further fractures within the Kremlin and its inner circle.

isw.pub/UkrWar040223
Fomin was one of the most significant Russian milbloggers w/ a Telegram platform of 560k followers & deep connections w/ Wagner PMC, the Kremlin, the Donetsk People’s Republic & the Russian nationalists dominating 🇷🇺's info space since the start of 🇷🇺's full-scale invasion of 🇺🇦.
#Fomin’s assassination at a #Wagner-affiliated bar in St. Petersburg may reveal further fractures within the #Kremlin and its inner circle. Fomin was a vocal critic of the #Russian military command and the Russian Ministry of Defense. 3/4
Read 4 tweets
ISW Profile picture
Apr 2
New: Russian, Ukrainian, and Western sources observed that the Russian winter offensive has failed to achieve the Kremlin’s goals of seizing all of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts by March 31.

Our latest: isw.pub/UkrWar040123
Chief of the #Russian General Staff Valery #Gerasimov had announced on December 22 that Russian forces were focusing most of their efforts on seizing #Donetsk Oblast. 2/
#Russian forces launched their winter offensive operation in early February along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna-Lyman line and on select frontlines in western #Donetsk Oblast. 3/
Read 4 tweets
ISW Profile picture
Apr 1
The new Foreign Policy Concept (FPC) paints the West as anti-#Russian & internationally destabilizing to a far greater extent than 🇷🇺's previous 2016 FPC, explicitly stating that the US & its “satellites” have unleashed a hybrid war aimed at weakening 🇷🇺.

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The new document also heavily stresses #Russia's goal of creating a multipolar world order & subordinates under that goal Russia’s broad foreign policy objectives, which include ending the US’ supposed dominance in world affairs. 2/
The document asserts that most of humanity is interested in constructive relations with #Russia and that a desired multipolar world will give opportunities to non-Western world powers and regional leading countries. 3/
Read 5 tweets
ISW Profile picture
Mar 31
#Putin remains unlikely to deploy newly conscripted troops to participate in combat in #Ukraine due to concerns for the stability of his regime. 1/

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#Putin’s use of conscripts during the winter-spring period of 2022 sparked social tensions in #Russia, and Putin is unlikely to risk his regime’s stability by deploying newly conscripted servicemen to the frontlines. 2/
The #Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) and #Putin even publicly instructed Russian authorities to investigate alleged incidents of Russian conscript deployments to #Ukraine on March 9, 2022 (which were technically illegal at that time). 3/
Read 5 tweets

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