Thread by @Monica___K

#ES close almost 4,149 resistance, $RSP $IWM improvements are key bullish achievements, but I doubt would be confirmed by rising #bonds.
Bit of a daily rotation into #cyclicals say that would be hard.
Key today - #retailsales
Quote from Sunday:
THREAD 👇

https://twitter.com/Monica___K/status/1658179153370177576

2. "I'm ooking for a meaningful undershoot on Tuesday, especially in core #retailsales turning even slightly negative".
Look at China's uneven recovery (18% vs 21% expected retail sales YoY), and compare then to situations when fiscal and monetary policy work in opposite ways.

3. Looking at the relative $XLY direction, I'm afraid #discretionaries are starting to lose their leading shine.
It's rather $XLC $XLV $XLU that are either leading or improving while $XLK deteriorates under the surface (also in terms of #NDX market breadth) just like $XLY.

4. $XLF $XLE $XLRE deteriorating, this isn't what should be happening in a bull market push.
#rates cooling off at the short end the way I told you late last week.
Core #inflation isn't leading in #disinflation, too early for #Fed victory lap.
All cautious, #metals #crypto...

5. still looking for the breakout direction of this long #ES range.
The risks to the downside in #stocks remain pronounced, not only because of the elections next year and game theory which #debtceiling outcome would benefit most in polarization and finger pointing.