Cantillon Consulting Profile picture
Jun 5 5 tweets 2 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
Smith, for all his virtues, here begs the question of what determines prices. If it were always simply at the whim of the producer why would such individuals and firms limit themselves to (1.05)^n? Why not 1.1? 1.2? 2? 200? 2000?

If each stage could only reap its 5%, why...
...would each not strive to acquire all those identifiably up- and downstream of it, collapsing the very division of labour Smith so correctly lauded?

And what of the VALUE of these so easily dictated profits? If the final price rises exponentially, the entrepreneur’s return...
...turns to dust in his hands: his 5% surplus buys only 1/(1.05)^[n-1] finished goods in the worst case, so who benefits? And where does the money come from to pay such a pyramid of rising purchase and sale prices if not from the REAL #inflation determinant - expanding credit!?
...Smith’s principal error here is his Labour Theory of Value: an understandable, but critical error of logic which explains why modern Leftists -whether full-fat or lite Marxists- have jumped in this historically jejune calculation.

The rest of us should know better!
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More from @CantillonCH

Jun 3
Now, children, ask yourselves what the Treasury will do with that $1.4tln.
(Hint: it will not be locked in a vault in Iron Mountain)
Next, ask what the successive orders of recipients of that $1.4tln will do with their booty.
(Hint 2: no mattresses will be stuffed) ....
So, class, you can see that -to the extent the banks do *not* create extra credit to accommodate the USTs- we will DIVERT ‘liquidity’, not destroy it - and some of the very same Co.s you’re buying today will see revenues increase even as others’ will fall....
Not saying such a shift will be free of consequences -nor denying that some of those outcomes may aggravate unsuspected vulnerabilities- but prima facie doom is to be avoided...
Read 4 tweets
May 8
Since the recent event with arguably the largest echo was the #FOMC decision, it's called - what else- "The Pause That Refreshes"
1/n
#FRB
#FederalReserve Image
The first thing to notice is that goods prices have broadly stabilised and volumes are fairly flat - in other words, #NGDP has ceased its torrid pace of increase. Service prices are still elevated but #payroll cost increase is slowing.
2/n Image
The #ISM #PMI showed an uptick but is still below 50 which implies that revenue growth is NOT about to accelerate again. Again, slower #inflation & flatline volume = an end to the boom, but not yet a bust.
3/n Image
Read 15 tweets
Feb 14
Thanks to @GeoffCutmore & @steve_sedgwick for the chat on #SquawkBox this morning!

Short and sweet today, but I hope it was of some interest. The notes I put together ahead of time will follow in this thread...
1/x
First of all, it's #ValentinesDay and SOMEONE is going to get massacred today when the #CPI is released, so naturally:-

2/x
Roses are red, violets are blue,
JayPow doesn't know
And neither do you.

#inflation's effects are not as universal as they were, but does that mean we can all now relax?

3/x
Read 15 tweets
Feb 6
Agreed. The singular advantage of money as a near-universally acceptable, reliable medium of exchange is that it breaks the need to know and trust counterparts all along the chain of trade & production. 1/x
This not only expands -and hence enriches- the network of exchange (think Adam Smith or “I, Pencil”) but removes node-occupying middlemen and toll-exactors. Efficiency increases, but transparency and fairness, too. 2/x
Once we have #CBDC-s -coupled to #Agenda2030 #IoT tracking of ‘#carbon’, meat protein, ‘circular economy’, low food miles, etc, we will have subjected ourselves to an intrusive, permanent rationing where a tax collector, a camp guard, and a Levitican Inquisitor...
3/x
Read 11 tweets
Sep 30, 2022
Thanks to @GeoffCutmore & @cnbcKaren for this morning's chat on #SquawkBox.

I did TRY to find something positive to say - honest, folks!

Following are the notes I sent the team before the show:-
🧵1/x
Ok. So here goes...

2/x
Something I've mentioned on here: the enormous scale of Europe's energy problem runs into the €trillions. The #AmpelDesGrauens "Doppel-Wums" -'bazooka' - relief package is €200bln & doubts are *already* being voiced whether will suffice.
3/x
Read 14 tweets
Aug 16, 2022
Sadly, the delusion that government is a choir of seraphim, all celestial virtue & superhuman foresight is hard to dispel; not least since ALL parties exploit this, all teachers are themselves trained to it.

Now just imagine the whole country run by London’s train driver unions!
Most here will have no memory of the 70s -the never-ending stoppages, strikes & flying pickets; the ‘closed shop’, restrictive practices, collective bargaining, ‘beer & sandwiches’ deal-making. The poor service, culminating in the unburied dead, the garbage-filled streets...
The stop-go inflation, the sheer moral -and often financial-corruption of the shop stewards - greater and more immediate oppressors and intimidators of the real workers than were any ‘fat-cat capitalist’ boss...
Read 10 tweets

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