Thread by @JiangJiang43

@ZichenWanghere from @CCG_org on reasons behind #China's position on #Russia-#Ukraine conflict & what the West could do to get China on its side: "I see that many in the West insist that China has enormous leverage to pressure Moscow but the reality is much more difficult." 🧵:

"Whenever a Chinese person looks at China on the world map, he or she sees an overbearing Russia, a huge country on top of China. The entire 20th century, #Russia has had an enormous impact and influence on China."

"After a lot of problems, only in the past ten years or so, the two countries have become close geopolitical partners, especially against what they perceive as US containment and encirclement. "

"Although Russia’s economy is just equivalent to perhaps the Guangdong province, in China’s mind it is still a superpower with a big nuclear arsenal and with sophisticated technology."

"These Western requests mean for China to make huge sacrifices of its own interests and in the end, alienate and antagonize Russia. If China followed these requests and sanctioned Russia, it would mean that China should shoulder big costs for something it didn’t cause"

"The European Union, with all its history and the Cold War, they are used to guarding against Russian troops for many years. But this history isn’t universally shared in other parts of the world."

"And maybe more important, the global south countries share a history of colonialism and they feel the developed countries haven’t been taking care of them as much as they should. All that sums up in a sense of distance to the discussion"

"But the US and #Europe are only pressuring China. So far, they haven’t been able to come up with any incentives to get China on their side. Offering incentives would be a more pragmatic approach, especially for the Europeans."

"Because between China and the United States, we see a very fierce competition, which will last. And second: Beijing apparently wants Europe to distance itself from its Trans-Atlantic partner and get Europe closer to itself. So Europe has some leverage over a very eager China"

"China’s ambassador in #Brussels has repeatedly said that China wants the Comprehensive Agreement on Investment #CAI back on the table and is open to proposals. I think Europe is actually in the position to incentivize China rather than just purely pressure China."

"If Europe were to entertain this idea, I think there are a lot of options. For example, dialing back US-masterminded restrictions on Huawei and ZTE and refraining from joining the US in export control of technology, which would send strong signals of strategic autonomy."

"And they can be paired with China working to deliver European and Ukrainian goals such as exchanging prisoners of war, establishing humanitarian corridors for civilians, returning Ukrainian children, and ultimately cease-fire and peace."

For more, check the feature by @MichaelRadunski table.media/china/en/featu…