Thread by @Orly_licious

⚖️ Nov 3 2023: 🎶 "Don't do the crime if you can't do the time...Don't do it." 🎶 - Baretta TV Theme 🧵 NOON EDT is Day 33, the FINAL DAY of the #EastmanTrial, The CA Bar Disbarment Trial of #JohnEastman. Live watch link, trial is NOT archived: app.zoom.us/wc/97985435232…

💪 #LukeCrew & friends, what a journey to this LAST DAY of #EastmanTrial. I'm happy John Eastman is being held responsible, & that we've gotten to know each other. For Eastman, "Keep Your Eye on the Sparrow" is the #ElectionDenier song: "Don't Do It."

Fri 11/3 is scheduled for #EastmanTrial CLOSING ARGUMENTS. Eastman's case in chief is finished. Since Judge Roland found a preliminary finding of culpability for John Eastman, the CA Bar will put on rebuttal & aggravation testimony.

First up will be more testimony by Dr. Justin Grimmer, followed by Bo Dul and Jonathan Marx. Duncan Carling wanted about an hour with Grimmer, then Eastman's lawyer Randy Miller wanted another hour. It's going to be a packed day.

To catch up with coverage, #EastmanTrial livetweets 🧵
9/8 Michael Gableman
9/12 John Yoo
9/13 Garland Favorito
9/14 Garland
9/15 Garland Disastrous Cross threadreaderapp.com/thread/1700197…
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9/26 John Yoo
9/27 John Yoo & Joseph Fried
9/28 John Droz
9/29 Kurt Olsen & Ray Blehar
10/3 Ray Blehar threadreaderapp.com/thread/1706716…
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10/4 Ray Blehar & Stan Young

10/6 Kurt Olsen & John Eastman

10/17 More Kurt Olsen & John Eastman

10/18 John Eastman

10/19 Stan Young & John Eastman
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https://twitter.com/Orly_licious/status/1714300908673155412

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https://twitter.com/Orly_licious/status/1715011579928781105

10/20 Character Witnesses & John Eastman
10/23 John Eastman - Jan 5 & 6 2021
10/24 John Eastman

https://twitter.com/Orly_licious/status/1715387566394859923

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10/30 31st day of #EastmanTrial. 📷 Randall Miller finishes John Eastman's Direct Examination, then CA Bar's Duncan Carling begins Cross-Ex. 3 parts of intense testimony!
Part I:
Part II:
Part III: threadreaderapp.com/thread/1719009…
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11/2 #EastmanTrial: Preliminary Finding of CULPABILITY. Grimmer dismantled WEEKS of testimony by Eastman's witnesses, who lacked skills, background or experience to offer opinions.
PART I:
PART II:
PART III: threadreaderapp.com/thread/1720106…
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#EastmanTrial Abbreviation Key:
YR = Presiding Judge Yvette Roland
DC = California Bar's Duncan Carling
RM = Randall "Randy" Miller, Counsel for Eastman
JE = John Eastman
CAB = California Bar
OCTC = CA Bar's Office of Chief Trial Counsel

I'd like to thank my friends @tomryanlaw & @arizonaslaw, I've learned so much from them about livetweeting and Arizona law. If you aren't following them, I highly recommend it. #EastmanTrial wouldn't be the same without them. 💙

THANK YOU to Frater, Foggy, Marcia, & everybody who used Buy Me A Coffee. I bought a new laptop for #EastmanTrial and got X Premium for longer tweets -- it was my gift for a record free from MAGA influence. Your votes of confidence mean the world to me.

https://twitter.com/Orly_licious/status/1720468270346641493

Meanwhile, in a "Tale of Two Trials", Rachel Alexander is pumping Stan Young with no election administration experience over Justin Grimmer, Stanford Prof with extensive election & statistics experience. Rachel is so determined to pump her agenda she'll push unqualified cranks.

TheActuator @deusxmach1na does great work on statistics and analysis, check out his content. He was really helpful deciphering Justin Grimmer's testimony. #LukeCrew 💪 has lots of experts that defend freedom and free and fair elections. #EastmanTrial

https://twitter.com/deusxmach1na/status/1720258002597588993

Here's background of Justin Grimmer, Professor in Public Policy in Stanford University's Department of Political Science, Senior Fellow at Hoover Institution, & Co-Director of Democracy & Polarization Lab. His research focuses on Congress, elections, social media, & data science.

Here...we...go! Judge Yvette Roland is presiding and attorneys are making their appearances for the penultimate 33rd day of #EastmanTrial, the CA Bar Disbarment Trial of John Eastman.

🚨 Just announced: In the #EastmanTrial, the parties have agreed to waive oral Closing Arguments today, 11/3. They will be submitting written Closing Arguments by mid-November.

#EastmanTrial written Closing Arguments are due 11/22 and may only cite to evidence presented at trial. Closing briefs must be 75 pages or less. The matter will also be submitted on 11/22. If exhibit time is still needed, it could be next Wed by Zoom (but not expected).

For Bo Dul, Carling needs 15 mins direct for aggravation, Eastman lawyer Mayer needs 20-30 mins. Pens ready, here's Prof Grimmer! #EastmanTrial

Duncan Carling wants to return to topic of the (my opinion: BOGUS) "prediction" Eastman said Joe Oltmann & Russ Ramsland made about the GA Senate Runoff. See yesterday's livetweets for initial debunking. This is from Eastman's 10/23 testimony:

#EastmanTrial Grimmer disputes Eastman's testimony completely. He says it's "logically incoherent". When you see 95-98%, votes would be increasing but you wouldn't see those on a TV screen. Unlike Eastman's 95%, Grimmer says it's more like 83% where chart balances.

Now looking at Dr. Stan Young's testimony. Grimmer saw it. DC: With Young's Contrast Analysis, 10/19 Young testimony, asking if all years would have the same anomalous contrast. Young did NOT compare other years.

JG: Claim in Young's report is large contrast could be where to look for fraud. But we're uncovering unsurprising fact of vote swings in large counties.

DC: Did you do the analysis Young didn't do?
JG: Yes. Applied methodology -- number of votes of D & R and differences in differences. Started in 1964/1960 through all elections thru 2020/2016.
DC: How long did it take?
JG: Code: 5 mins, Verify: 5 mins, Plots: No cutoff, eyeballed

Miller is objecting to new work & exhibits being presented. Carling replies it's directly rebutting Stan Young's testimony. Judge says its illustrative. Miller says he'd have his experts for sur-rebuttal. Judge overrules. Carling gave exhibits to Miller 11/1.

#EastmanTrial Grimmer is referring to chart, which is Georgia with the Contrast Analysis (same methodology as Young). Top left are 4 largest counties (red dots). Blue dots are smallest counties. Young called "anomalous".

Looking at previous years, it was the same thing. Young said it was useful, but it's NOT. For example 1960/1964, but in all elections, in small counties, with like 600 people, the biggest contrast could be 1200. In 1984, if 5% changed to Reagan, can't be as big as large counties.

#EastmanTrial
DC: Because it was vote count was it less reliable?
JG: Stan Young's Contrast Report is useless as a tool. Largest counties have bigger swings.
DC: What he IDed as anomalous is not?
JG: No. It's common. All it shows are there are bigger swings in larger counties.

Moving to Young's critique of Grimmer's work related to your critique of Dr. Cicchetti's work.
JG: Cicchetti in TX v PA compared vote count and vote share to see if it was anomalous. He assumed count had same # of votes, & in share, same share of voters (Clinton v Biden).

#EastmanTrial JG's critique is that the Null hypothesis makes no sense. There's no literature that candidates from the same party have the same vote shares or counts. So it's absurd. Dispute is with assumptions. No basis to assume 2 elections would have same vote count or share.

Stan Young's testimony of 10/19. (In transcripts.) DC: What's incorrect?
JG: Many reasons that vote count or share could deviate. No reason to perform Null hypothesis test at all. Uses a non sequitur that election can be won by 1 vote. Has nothing to do with what we critiqued.

#EastmanTrial
DC: Agree with Young here?
JG: NO. Dispute with the core analysis. No basis for the assumption Dr. Cicchetti uses.
DC: Challenge arithmetic?
JG: No.

#EastmanTrial
DC: Do you agree you came to different results with the same datasets?
JG: It's a numeric vote count, it's not complex. Dispute is that there's no basis for his assumption.

#EastmanTrial
DC: At line 3, block quote from your report. Is that your article? JG: Yes DC: Young's response critiques Grimmer. Do you agree?
JG: We analyzed turnout in "suspicious counties" & mail-in voting (claims of absentee voting) in allegations by John Locke.

JG: Found no support, he had a statistical error. We looked at other analysis, like Biden did better with Dominion machines -- NO support for that. Looked at claims that in PA votes were transferred between counties, they weren't. We looked at voting changes.

JG: Just by looking at Section Titles, they could have seen we covered these.
Moving to "Blockin'" Ray Blehar on 10/3 (we covered this as well).
JG: In Vote Spike report, Ray says Edison vote updates would follow a normal distribution... a normal assumption.

#EastmanTrial JG: Critical to know what distribution would look like in a reliable (non fraud) election. No statistic says you can revert to a normal distribution. You'd want a basis for distribution. NO basis for what Ray Blehar says. The real world isn't normal distribution.

#EastmanTrial
Ray Blehar says population is normal distribution. Grimmer says not true.
JG: I'd expect individuals to be able to explain other than normal (like coin flipping) distribution. Undergrads & AP high school students learn. Blehar has less than high school knowledge.

#EastmanTrial Now looking at Kurt Olsen at line 20 about (discredited) Ryan Report.
DC: Aware of allegation
JG: Yes.
DC: Agree with Ryan Report that 11/2 only 2.7M ballots sent out?
JG: No, not what the data says.
DC: Did you use that to make a chart?

#EastmanTrial Also looks at the TX v PA complaint, Paragraph 59 refers to the Ryan Report. Same discrepancy as Olsen's?
JG: Yes. PA provides near daily CSV updates on ballots requested & how ballots returned. Widely reported.

Grimmer's chart. Point on plot is # of requests. Gaps are when PA didn't provide update. By 10/19, total exceeded 2.7M, then up to 3.1M. After ED, reduction is canceled ballots.
DC: Ryan said 11/2 only 2.7M?
JG: That's wrong, unclear basis
DC: Did Ryan ID info for claim?
JG: No.

#EastmanTrial
Looking at Michigan, TX v PA & Cicchetti Decl. DC: What's an absentee counting board?
JG: Counts (aggregate) multiple precincts together.
DC: How info published? Registration #s?
JG: Wayne County PDF. No registration #s. 0 on absentee ballots, just board totals.

#EastmanTrial
DC: Anything in Cicchetti's Declaration that indicates ballots were counted multiple times?
JG: No & no way to make that assumption/
DC: If 174K were counted fraudulently what does it mean?
JG: This is alleging ALL absentee ballots (TOTAL) was fraudulently cast. 🚀

Now debunking Garland Favorito's report. Uses Garland's report & Gilles Decl. Row 22 table of summary.
JG: Query he ran for underaged registrants. Compares 2 dates: birth year & date added field. "Date diff" & extracting #, then looks at <17.

#EastmanTrial
JG: Debunking VoterGA Garland Favorito: Using date added is a problem, profoundly. For example, Voter born in 1928, registered 1944, would be listed as UNDERAGE. Average age was 42! There was 92-year-olds in 2020 listed as UNDERAGE. Plus common clerical errors.

#EastmanTrial
More debunking of Garland Favorito's VoterGA report, now about deceased voters. With 864, some voted in person before they passed (GA tracks mode of voting). Others sent in number of days before passing away (cancelled voter file daily with reason, listed deceased).

(Testimony is complex af but amazing. More coffee!) Eastman 10/18 says how familiar he is with voter rolls & vulnerabilities, refers to Gilles report. JG: Gilles made no effort to confirm accuracy (of dead voters) so "up to" caveat is misleading taking max of interval could be 0.

#EastmanTrial
JG: Every row has 1 voter. Gilles could ID multiple records as false positives. Need sample to determine. Look at obits is helpful & important for false positives in data merging. Favorito struggled, conclusions didn't match evidence. His data is unreliable.

Last topic is Michael Gableman. Line 4, agree?
JG: NO. No citation, & states have canceled voter records. So if a person tried to register as a dead voter, they could tell. List doesn't enhance fraud, it can help reconcile lists & be used in litigation.

Regarding Michael Gableman:
JG: In Wisconsin, they keep records of 7M while there's 3.9M voters. 4.5M voters in voting age population. Other states do it too. No literature presents a security risk.

#EastmanTrial
Gableman alleged that "Zuckerberg" grants helped Democrats.
JG: False. Typical city had 38.5% Democratic (mostly Republican!).
Note: Federal Election Commission unanimously agreed funds were not prioritized to Democrats. Gableman FAIL.
washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/…

#EastmanTrial
We laughed about this, it's in the transcript, Gableman said "Get Out The Vote" was "always partisan". That's ridiculous and Justin Grimmer confirms that "Get Out The vote" has been used for many purposes, not just partisan.

#EastmanTrial
DC: Gableman's 2nd interim report & testimony, reliable?
JG: NO. Data is either incorrectly described or not described at all. None of Gableman's claims of fraud are reliable.
Duncan Carling finished with Grimmer. As expected, Eastman's witnesses totally destroyed.

#EastmanTrial TAKING AN EARLY LUNCH BREAK! 🍕 🍺
Trial resumes at 3:30PM EDT.
Bo Dul from 3:45-4:30pm, then Grimmer with Randy Miller at 4:30pm. Jonathan Marx was also mentioned yesterday, and they have exhibits to add/withdraw. Hope everyone is following this, doing my best!

https://twitter.com/PootDibou/status/1712841005798433226

https://twitter.com/EndureFlourish/status/1720505277361848736

https://twitter.com/R5Philly/status/1720501253187190956

https://twitter.com/PumpkinGroup/status/1720488034167140553

https://twitter.com/MrTiggerGolf/status/1720485357689463060

https://twitter.com/MrTiggerGolf/status/1720484217165959311

I'll unroll this PART I now, and we'll start with PART II after lunch. 🥳 Thank you #LukeCrew 💪 & Friends!

https://twitter.com/Orly_licious/status/1720513618326790568

@threadreaderapp unroll