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Stephen Wolf
@PoliticsWolf
, 9 tweets, 4 min read Read on Twitter
Respectfully disagree. Even political scientists are divided on whether gerrymandering cost Dems the House in 2012. Just ask @ElectProject
One widely shared Chen/Rodden paper arguing Dems "gerrymander themselves" was based on biased data & flawed methods dailykos.com/story/2015/05/…
Even in Chen's poster child of Florida, court-ordered 2016 redistricting to curtail GOP gerrymandering caused major Dem gains & reduced bias
A recent Brennan Center analysis of partisan bias certainly didn't seem to think gerrymandering was a small matter
My past work with hypothetical nonpartisan maps suggest gerrymandering cost Dems 25 seats & a House majority in 2012 dailykos.com/story/2016/10/…
I've been looking at the 2016 impact on individual states here dailykos.com/news/2016GOPge…

Stay tuned for upcoming 2016 gerrymandering analysis
Gerrymandering could cost Democrats a House majority again in 2018 despite their current lead on the generic ballot. It matters a great deal
A political scientist responds to today's earlier @UpshotNYT article on how gerrymandering didn't cost Democrats the House in 2012
Yet another academic work argues the opposite of Chen's paper about partisan gerrymandering having little net impact
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Stephen Wolf
@PoliticsWolf
I expect 5-4 rulings deciding that partisan gerrymandering can't be ruled unconstitutional at the federal level, thanks to Mitch McConnell stealing a Supreme Court seat & Trump putting an attempted rapist on the court
The US Supreme Court doing whatever it can get away with to protect GOP gerrymandering is why state supreme courts are so critical. PA's Dem-majority Supreme Court struck down GOP gerrymandering in 2018, & NC's Dem court could do so too by 2020. Here's how dailykos.com/story/2018/11/…
This is sadly a prerequisite for getting the Roberts Court to actually put limits on congressional gerrymandering—If they only see it as something Republicans do, then they'll never do anything to stop it. This is why we must pass House Dems' #HR1 to ban gerrymandering nationally
Read 6 tweets
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Stephen Wolf
@PoliticsWolf
New Hampshire's new Democratic-majority state legislature is voting today on electing NH's secretary of state. Dems could oust longtime SOS Bill Gardner, nominally a Dem, who is notorious for backing Republican voter suppression measures. Background here: dailykos.com/stories/2018/1…
NH Dems may try to pass redistricting reform again after they overcame GOP gerrymandering to win majorities in 2018. But GOP Gov. Sununu could veto a statutory proposal, & Dems lack the 60% supermajorities for a constitutional amendment if all Rs voted no vnews.com/Newly-in-power…
New Hampshire's new Dem-majority Senate & House are voting in a joint session to elect the next secretary of state. Livestream here: sg001-harmony.sliq.net/00288/Harmony/…
Read 11 tweets
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Stephen Wolf
@PoliticsWolf
[Thread] This week's Voting Rights Roundup newsletter: 2018 was a smashing win for North Carolina democracy, breaking the GOP's veto-proof legislative majorities & paving the way for the Dem-majority NC Supreme Court to strike down the GOP's gerrymanders dailykos.com/stories/2018/1…
Florida voters delivered a huge blow against a remnant of Jim Crow by automatically restoring voting rights to up to 1.4 million people who have fully completed their felony sentences. FL had barred 1 in 10 adults from voting, including 1 in 5 black people dailykos.com/stories/2018/1…
Michigan voters struck a critical blow against GOP gerrymandering by passing an independent redistricting commission. The GOP has won at least 1 legislative chamber despite losing the popular vote in 5 of the last 9 elections, including both chambers 2018 dailykos.com/stories/2018/1…
Read 9 tweets

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One of the best things that ever happened to the opposition forces in Nigeria pre-2015 was the loss of five AD states in 2003, leaving Gov. Bola Ahmed Tinubu as the Capo Di Tutti of the AD - and I once highlighted this in a previous thread.

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Lawrence Of A Labia
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So let's talk about Serena, Osaka, and misogynoir- first I'd like to take time to congratulate Naomi Osaka for her win. Watching her play was wonderful, I can't imagine the thrill of going up against Serena Williams at only 20 years old!
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Ben Stanley
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The Italy crisis is making me wonder about the ethical duties of political scientists. As much as we like to pretend nobody listens to us, some people do, and while nobody but us reads our articles, we do get cited in newspapers, which some people will read. And this means >
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@TomStark913
On this one year anniversary of the election of Donald J Trump to the presidency of the United States, we take a moment to reflect upon the past and ponder our path forward. Without question, the election of President Trump saved our Union from a race to oblivion.
As the past year has shown, we have major issues within our government and its going to take YEARS to right the ship. One man, one election is not going to do it. Voting republican or voting this or that is not sufficient on its own. The governmental problems are systemic.
For over a century the progressives have had it their goal to tear down our system of government. That damned Constitution is simply too rigid for those with grand ambitions. The Constitution that preserves our rights and our Union is seen as an obstacle to those people.
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