I've preliminarily identified 64 Reported COSA Opinions in criminal cases from 1968-2018 in which there was a dissent. Time to see how often the Court of Appeals granted cert in those cases.
In the 10 cases from 2002-2016, COA granted cert 8 times and denied cert twice. In those 8 cases, COA affirmed 3 times and reversed/vacated 5 times.
Important context, though. Only 4 of those COSA opinions were wholly affirming the Circuit's order. The other 6 were reversing/vacating the Circuit's Court's order in whole or in part.
The first of those 4 cases was Colvin v. State, in which Circuit Court & COSA found granted the defendant's motion correct an illegal sentence. COA granted cert and reversed.
The second was Walker v. State, in which the Circuit Court & COSA denied relief to the defendant. COA granted cert and affirmed.
The third was Rodriguez v. State, in which the Circuit Court & COSA denied relief to the defendant. COA denied cert.
The fourth was Smith v. State, in which the Circuit Court & COSA found the trial judge properly precluded trial counsel from talking about the problems w/cross-racial IDs in closing. COA granted cert and reversed, granting the defendant relief.
So, out of those 4 cases in which the Circuit Court & COSA reached the same result, we had all 4 possible outcomes: (1) a cert denial; (2) a cert grant & affirmance; (3) a cert grant & reversal in favor of the State; and (4) a cert grant & reversal in favor of the defendant.
Preliminary conclusions: (1) I now think there's a much higher chance of COA granting cert than I previously thought; and (2) there's more disagreement between COA & COSA than I previously expected.
It's worth noting that 3/7 COA judges have only been serving since 2013, and all but 3 of these cases were decided before 2013.
