Thread by @JustinWingerter

I've been thinking lately about whether the controversies surrounding Scott Pruitt will damage him if he runs for higher office in Oklahoma.

I've also been talking with politicos much wiser than myself about it. Here's a thread on what I learned, in case you're interested. 1/14

First things first: There's no guarantee the seat Pruitt has long been rumored to be seeking, Inhofe's Senate seat, will be open in 2020. Below is what Inhofe told the National Journal last month.

Inhofe will be 85 years old when the election rolls around. But he may run again.

But let's assume for a minute that Inhofe retires and Pruitt runs in 2020. It's safe to assume these controversies will show up in GOP primary TV ads, especially the issues involving lavish spending. Painting your opponent as a rich, out-of-touch Washingtonian is smart politics.

The local Republican strategists I spoke with aren't sure those attacks stick, though, since the issues were uncovered by the press. As one told me, "When you’re attacked by the New York Times, the Atlantic, the Washington Post, I don’t think those attacks hurt you in Oklahoma.”

Of course, much of this depends on what happens to Pruitt. Is he fired, does he resign, or does he stay at the EPA? Each avenue has its own ramifications.

Let's begin with the first scenario: Pruitt is fired by Donald Trump.

“I think ‘fired by Donald Trump’ is a much easier negative message to play in this state than any of these supposed scandals," a GOP strategist said the other day.

And I think that's accurate. In a Republican primary, having been fired by the Republican president is damaging.

So, what about resignation? A pollster predicts Pruitt's message would be, "I've deregulated, that pissed off the press, these issues are a distraction so I'm handing the reins over to someone to keep the momentum moving." Maybe, but his opponents will still frame it as a firing.

Obviously, the best case scenario for Pruitt is survival or some sort of vindication. A strong relationship with Trump "could potentially give him a pretty big boost in the Republican primary," a former presidential campaign staffer told me. Assuming Trump remains popular here.

A political science professor told me he's very skeptical of Pruitt's odds after a firing or resignation. “If you look at Oklahoma historically, once you get into an ethical controversy or legal controversy and it is definitively concluded, that’s usually the end of it for you."

All seem to agree this will be rehashed. The professor: “Politics among conservatives in Oklahoma is a full-contact sport. Nobody’s just going to let this lie. It doesn’t just sit there. You don’t just get a pass on this. The only way it ends for him successfully is vindication.”

Who rehashes it matters. As a pollster said, “Oh, I have no doubt it will pop up. I think the question is who launches that. If it’s paid for by the Sierra Club, then people won’t care." (The Oklahoma Sierra Club tells me it has no plans to get involved in elections that way).

For now, GOP pollsters in Oklahoma City still think Pruitt's a very viable candidate.

“The jury’s still out. I still believe that in Oklahoma, Scott Pruitt will come out of his work at the EPA in a very solid position to take higher office. Now, that’s as of today," one told me.

Political scandals don't have the longevity they once did. A HuffPost/YouGov survey found ambivalence among voters. Half of those polled didn't have an opinion on Pruitt’s job performance. 54 percent weren't sure whether or not he’s done anything wrong. huffingtonpost.com/entry/scott-pr…

So, to recap: We don't know if the Senate seat will be open in 2020. We don't know if Pruitt will remain EPA administrator. If he leaves, we don't know how he will do so. We don't know how any of this plays in Oklahoma, though we can begin to guess.

Welcome to politics in 2018.