Twenty years ago today, India conducted three nuclear tests at Pokhran. A lot of water has flown under the bridge since then, but in hindsight a few things stand out. 1/n
One is the context didn't give India much of a choice. In 1995, an indefinite extension of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) was proposed, along with a Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT). In 1996, the US also watered down proliferation sanctions on Pakistan. 2/n
Preparations of the test site at Pokhran began in August 1995. In December, Narasimha Rao decided to postpone tests until after the general elections. In 1996, Vajpayee too decided to postpone until after a no confidence motion, which his government did not survive.
After the Pokhran tests, on June 6, the UN Security Council resolution 1172 came down hard on India (and Pakistan). Defence sales, credit lines, international financial institution loans, visas for Indian scientists, and aid were suspended. 4/n
The U.S. spelled out five criteria for lifting sanctions: sign CTBT, freeze fissile material production, limit ballistic missile development, adopt international standard export controls, and resume dialogue with Pakistan, including on J&K. 5/n
An aside on this. US concerns (they picked up satellite imagery of Pokhran in 1995) were communicated by US Amb. Wisner and by Clinton on phone to Rao. But elections and economy (reserves were low) arguably mattered more in postponing tests.
India, led by Vajpayee and Jaswant Singh, cleverly played for time, realising that market access would erode sanctions. Within 6 months, US legislation was amended by Congress. The Europeans, led by France and Italy, also advocated for a lower threshold in the G8. 6/n
After the U.S. Senate rejected the CTBT in October 1999, Clinton spoke to Vajpayee about the prospect of visiting India in 2000, and remaining sanctions were waived by the end of the month. Others followed, including the Japanese PM in 2000. 7/n
While the US made five clear demands in 1998, India only really accepted one (export controls). In return, not only were sanctions lifted but India's nuclear arsenal was later mainstreamed (2005-08). Many lessons for negotiating strategies. Hats off to Jaswant Singh & Co. 8/9
For anyone interested in detailed accounts of all this, I'd highly recommend both @strobetalbott's (amazon.com/Engaging-India…) and Jaswant Singh's (amazon.com/Call-Honour-Se…) books. 9/9
