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Dr Rosanna C Barnard (she/her) Profile picture
Dr Rosanna C Barnard (she/her)
@BarnardResearch
Research Fellow in Infectious Disease Modelling @cmmid_lshtm @LSHTM, previously @SussexUni πŸ‘©πŸ»β€πŸ’» Mathematics PhD 🎲 Views my own πŸ³οΈβ€πŸŒˆπŸ“·β›°πŸš²πŸ₯‘πŸŒΊ
Aug 23, 2022 β€’ 29 tweets β€’ 25 min read
My research (with @_nickdavies @cmmid_lshtm @markjit & John Edmunds) is published in @NatureComms πŸ₯³

This is the culmination of many months of work (my funding from @Epipose)πŸΎπŸŽ‰

nature.com/articles/s4146…

Until I write a book on this (publishers/agents hmu😝), here is a 🦣🧡 The code to reproduce this work is available at: github.com/rosannaclaireb… πŸ› οΈβš™οΈπŸ§©πŸ—οΈ

This implementation of 'covidm' builds on work by @_nickdavies (the OG creator) in the early #COVID days

Since joining @LSHTM in July 2020, I have developed covidm with @_nickdavies

πŸ‘©β€πŸ’»πŸ‘©β€πŸ”§πŸ‘©β€πŸŽ¨πŸ‘©β€πŸ’ΌπŸ‘©β€πŸ”¬
Dec 11, 2021 β€’ 18 tweets β€’ 9 min read
The B.1.1.529 SARS-CoV-2 variant was first reported on 24th November 2021, and 2 days later @WHO designated it #Omicron. Since then we (me @_nickdavies @cap1024 @markjit and John Edmunds) have worked to understand potential consequences for England. 🧡 [cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19…] Figure 1 from the paper linked in the tweet. This figure has First, what do we know about Omicron?

1⃣ it has a large number of mutations (see covdb.stanford.edu/page/mutation-…)
2⃣ there is evidence from South Africa (s/out @SACEMAdirector and team) of an increased reinfection risk associated with the emergence of Omicron: An image showing the mutations within the genome of the Omic
Jul 12, 2021 β€’ 11 tweets β€’ 8 min read
An updated 🧡 on our latest report modelling #step4 of the #roadmap on 19th July 2021 πŸ›£οΈπŸͺœ with @_nickdavies @markjit & John Edmunds @cmmid_lshtm πŸ‘©β€πŸ’» (published today) ... #storytime with pictures πŸ“’πŸ“· gov.uk/government/pub… We were asked to model roadmap #step4 happening on 19th July with:
▢️ different vaccine effectiveness vs. Delta Ξ΄ B.1.617.2
▢️ different transmission levels after step 4

We used the same #agestructured #compartmental #deterministic model as before An image showing the compartments and transitions between di
Jun 14, 2021 β€’ 11 tweets β€’ 11 min read
It's been a busy few days/weeks/months modelling steps 2, 3 and 4 of the #roadmap out of lockdown in England, with my #ateam @_nickdavies @markjit and John Edmunds. A 🧡 on our latest work looking at #step4 πŸͺœπŸ‘©β€πŸ’» and a #photodump of some nice things I saw along the way A photograph of the West pier and Brighton beach with low ti We project the dynamics of #SARSCoV2 transmission in England using an #agestructured #transmission #model which divides the population into vaccine states and disease states. The model has compartments for three #COVID19 variants (OG, #alpha and #delta) and 2 two-dose vaccines πŸ’‰ An illustration of the age-structured compartmental transmis
Dec 24, 2020 β€’ 9 tweets β€’ 4 min read
A lot of attention on our @cmmid_lshtm preprint on the SARS-CoV-2 VOC 202012/01. For some background, the precursor work on a (single-variant) model looking at tiered restrictions and lockdown in England was published last night: authors.elsevier.com/sd/article/S14… ✨PEER REVIEWED(!)✨ 1/9 We fitted a (single-variant) model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission to the first and second waves in England from March - October 2020, using a number of data sources across NHS England regions 2/9 Image