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Darius Dale Profile picture
Darius Dale
@DariusDale42
CEO of 42 Macro—the leading macro forecasting and market timing service on Global Wall St. advising on $25 trillion-plus in client AUM. Not investment advice.
7 subscribers
Jun 12 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
BREAKING: Paul Tudor Jones—widely considered one of the top-5 investors of all-time—just told you to adopt the 42 Macro LLC KISS portfolio, which is Stocks, Gold, and Bitcoin, adjusted for their relative volatility and betas.

Why did God bless this formerly homeless 1980s crack baby to build a top-tier global Wall Street platform where we provide our KISS solution to the masses? For His glory and His glory only.

KISS is already a life raft for thousands of investors around the world across 80+ countries, keeping them afloat during this Great Debasement ™️.

I'm not here to sell you anything; I'm already rich and do not require another dollar of income to continue living a blessed life.

PTJ and I are simply trying to help you before it is too late to protect your family's financial future from the deepening Fourth Turning polycrisis we have been preparing our clients for for years. ❤️ Source:
Jul 17, 2023 • 15 tweets • 4 min read
Where Do We Go From Here?

Last week, Darius joined @ErikSTownsend from @MacroVoices to discuss the #Stock Market, #Credit, #Inflation, and more.

Here are the three biggest takeaways from the interview that are critical for managing risk: https://t.co/hf3v0NNPi7twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
Image 1) The Stock Market Always Rallies Sharply Leading Up to Recessions

When we evaluate the S&P 500 performance a year before its peak preceding a recession, we usually see it in the green, up on a median basis by +16%.

This year’s rally is not abnormal.
Jul 7, 2023 • 14 tweets • 3 min read
What Is The Outlook on Inflation?

Earlier this week, Darius joined @APompliano to discuss Global #Liquidity, #Inflation, the Housing Market, and more.

In case you missed it, here are five takeaways from the interview every investor needs to see: 1. Global Liquidity Has Been Declining Over The Past Few Months

Our proxy for global liquidity, estimated via central bank balance sheets, broad money supply, and FX reserves minus gold, has been waning over recent months.
Jun 20, 2023 • 19 tweets • 5 min read
What’s Propping Up The US Consumer?

Last week, Darius joined @maggielake from @RealVision to discuss Rate Hikes, #Inflation, the Stock Market, and more.

In case you missed it, here are five takeaways from the interview every investor needs to know: Image 1) The Market Believes The Fed Is Done Hiking. We Are Fading That View.

Currently, money markets are pricing in the assumption that future inflation data will force the Fed to pause at their July meeting.
Jun 5, 2023 • 20 tweets • 6 min read
Why is the stock market ripping?

#Team42, we joined Real Vision’s @RaoulGMI and @maggielake last week to discuss #Liquidity , #Debt Monetization, #Recession, & more.

In case you missed it, here are seven highlights from what many are calling “the best RV Daily Briefing yet”: Image 1) Liquidity Drives Asset Markets

Although we believe the stock market will continue to squeeze bears well into the fall, poor liquidity conditions will likely drag asset markets down this summer.
May 26, 2023 • 15 tweets • 5 min read
Rough Summer Ahead?

#Team42, I joined @APompliano earlier this week to discuss the #DebtCeiling , #recession , Global #Liquidity , and more.

EVERY investor will want to review the following six highlights from the interview: Image 1) We expect the Debt Limit Crisis to negatively impact global liquidity.

The US government will return to the international capital markets to borrow more money (after resolving the crisis).
May 17, 2023 • 13 tweets • 4 min read
#Team42, Darius joined Paul Barron last week to discuss inflation, the jobs market, crypto outlook, and much more.

In case you missed it, here are 7 takeaways that will SIGNIFICANTLY help your portfolio over the next 6 months: Image 1) Although inflation is moving in the right direction, we still have some work to do.

Given the stock market's (relatively) high current valuation and the bond market pricing in a quick Fed pivot, the inflation numbers we are currently at are scary. Image
Dec 14, 2022 • 5 tweets • 4 min read
#FOMC CONSPIRACY THEORY THREAD: The @ClevelandFed Median and Trimmed Mean CPI statistics were not updated yesterday. That was odd, because my analysis of the data within the 8:30am release suggested both would corroborate the sharp deceleration in Services ex-Rent of Shelter. 1/ I had two officials reach out to confirm that the lack of an update was due to a “technical error”. I don’t necessarily buy it. What I think *may* be happening here is Loretta Mester was prepared to break ranks with the hawks today because of the data but Powell shut it down. 2/
Dec 1, 2022 • 5 tweets • 3 min read
Good morning and God bless! Time to focus on the #NextPlay.

In our 10/29 Around the Horn, we discussed how max pain for us bears was likely to be ~4100 on the $SPX. The path getting here (2 big days of 0DTE call-induced gamma squeezes) has been weird, but we are here. What now? The answer to “What now?” has 3 components:

1. Will the $SPX squeeze past its 200DMA, forcing capitulation by a net short investor consensus?
2. Will CPI behave?
3. Will Powell have to backtrack regardless, given that he catalyzed a sharp move higher in inflation expectations?
Nov 17, 2022 • 7 tweets • 6 min read
Good morning and God bless! Time to focus on the #NextPlay.

All roads in the Defi space leading to #Bitcoin as collateral, as contagion spreads to Genesis who suspended withdrawals y’day w/o even taking questions from customers. The #Crypto industry grows shadier by the day. 1/ ImageImageImageImage I know that #Bitcoin view is not especially popular, but I don’t see how they get around the fact that the only “safer” form of collateral is USD fiat — Defi’s arch nemesis.

Watching a bunch of way-too-overcapitalized kids make all the same mistakes as Tradfi is hilarious. 2/
Nov 9, 2022 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
🚨🚨🚨🚨🚨🚨🚨🚨🚨🚨

THE MISGUIDED BELIEF BELOW IS THE #1 MOST DANGEROUS RISK TO YOUR WEALTH. THE ASSUMPTION THAT AN UP 20-60% YEAR AFTER A DOWN 20-60% YEAR LEAVES YOU WITH THE SAME AMOUNT OF MONEY IS THE MOST OFFENSIVE ASSUMPTION TO BASIC #MATH EVER. “VOLATILITY DRAG” IS REAL! Here is the #math on the magnitude of future returns required to get your money back after drawdowns of various magnitudes:
Nov 9, 2022 • 8 tweets • 4 min read
Good morning and God bless! Time to focus on the #NextPlay.

The @cz_binance-@SBF_FTX drama teaches our #Crypto friends three lessons:
1. Decentralization is a self-serving illusion
2. Macro > Micro when Macro is bad
3. USD liquidity trumps all until $ is not the reserve currency I spent dinner discussing the #FTX saga with my fiancé who knows as much about how global financial markets work as the average #Crypto bro. My explanation to her (and them) is as follows:

1. We live in a world where the price of every key asset in the world is in US dollars

2/
Nov 6, 2022 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Demand destruction is the only thing the Fed can do to stop the ~$8tn of checkable cash on HH balance sheets from continuing to inflate the CPI.

I agree we need more supply long term. But ZIRP and QE — i.e., WHY we have inflationary populism to begin with — is NOT the solution!! The solution is obviously thoughtful fiscal and regulatory policy that promotes effective reallocation of resources within and across our borders.

If you haven’t watched @CNN or @FoxNews lately, that sh!t ain’t gonna happen anytime soon. So the Fed is doing the best they can do.
Nov 5, 2022 • 7 tweets • 4 min read
Another BANGER by our friend @MebFaber ft. @TotemMacro, former Head of EM at Bridgewater (@RayDalio’s fund).

I’m biased b/c @42macro shares many of the same views — views that are in direct contention w/ popular views on Fin-Twit that do not pass the analytical rigor smell test. Image One poorly researched, popular Fin-Twit view that has chapped my ass of late is the discussion about bond market liquidity. The bond market is fine. Bond prices are going down b/c investors have altered their views on the expected path of policy rates and stickiness of inflation.
Nov 1, 2022 • 5 tweets • 3 min read
PROCESS THREAD: One of the things that sets the @42macro research process apart is I update our 125 to 150-slide monthly Macro Scouting Reports daily to prepare for client meetings. That is to ensure I don't miss any critical Macro updates like today's September JOLTS release. 1/ Image Obviously not every slide in the deck needs to be updated every day, as some only feature monthly or quarterly data. But I do go through every economic release, from every major economy, every single day, to ensure that I do not miss updating any slide that requires an update. 2/ Image
Oct 31, 2022 • 6 tweets • 3 min read
COACHING THREAD: In response to the @NickTimiraos article I tweeted, I've had no less than two dozen retail investors tweet at me some version of the following:

"High credit card debt = the household sector balance sheet is not healthy nor is consumer spending resilient".

1/ Ignoring the very obvious fact that anchoring on a NON-STATIONARY TIME SERIES like nominal credit card debt should not ever ever ever be used to form the basis of CYCLICAL (read: stationary) determinations, the reason high credit card debt it misses the mark is threefold... 2/
Jan 14, 2022 • 4 tweets • 3 min read
The stock market is making me nervous about a deeper pullback. It is trading over a percent below the Lower Boundary of its Probable Range, indicating it wants to at least break down to neutral from the perspective of our Volatility-Adjusted Momentum Signal (VAMS).

THREAD 1/ That said, the last time we saw such a deep downside deviation w/r/t the S&P 500’s Probable Range was on 5/12/21. At the risk of anchoring on an n-size of 1, investors can breathe a sigh of relief b/c that was not a sell signal on either a one-week or one-month forward basis.

2/