Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #BothvotesSNP

Most recents (4)

"2016 & the SNP's Four Seats"

You can bet money that no discussion on the list will happen without someone chiming in that the SNP only won 4 seats in 2016, & that it can 'only win' in a few regions.

Their opinion has become fossilised, they can't open their minds as to why....
They singularly fail to understand that the number of list seats won is NOT limited by having a constituency landslide.

Even if you win *all* the constituency seats, you can still win seats on the list if your % share is similar or higher.

Notion that SNP 'can't win' is false.
As ever, words mean nothing without data to back them up.

So let's look again at 2016, and the claims that SNP can't win in more regions & thus win more than 4 seats - assumed to be a 'plateau', putting a ceiling on SNP hopes & feeding narrative that an SNP list vote is wasted.
Read 20 tweets
This was posted in reply to me earlier today, presumably by a supporter of the ISP.

I asked where the safe list seats are, but no reply.

But this raises an important point about there being "safe list seats" for the SNP. Image
We are told that the ISP isn't planning to stand candidates in the South of Scotland list, because in 2016 the SNP won three of its four list seats there. Image
f this is true, then they are basing their strategy on over four year old results, and ignoring the current polling situation.

Modelling the latest Panelbase poll, shows that on current levels of support, the SNP isn't likely to win *any* list seats in the South of Scotland: Image
Read 8 tweets
'Tactical voting' in the Scottish Parliament election. #SNP #Greens #Holyrood #TacticalVoting #AMS #DHondt…
“The brutal but honest truth: anyone who still persists in their beliefs about ‘tactical voting’, in the face of all the algorithmic evidence to the contrary, is as impervious to the facts as any Brexiter or anti-vaxxer.” #TacticalVoting #DHondt #AMS #Indyref2 #Yes2
"The single most important aspect of the discussion witnessed over the last week, is that it has once again highlighted just how widespread is the failure to understand the practical operation of the Additional Member allocation process”
Read 28 tweets
Lots of people are happy with today's poll numbers, which is great...

...but remember 2016 when the narrative took hold that the SNP were guaranteed a majority...

...for weeks we said we didn't think that likely but the press (perhaps understandably) thought we were just talking expectations down...

...the result was some people thought it was "safe" to vote for someone else...

...the result was no majority and emboldened Tories...

2/3 while today's numbers are nice, there are no guarantees in politics...

...and there is still a very long way to go until May.

Read 3 tweets

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