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We are roughly 2 months away from the start of #CFB season! Lets talk expectations. Ill go through each team & give what my model predicts as the % chance each team gets to bowl eligbility, and also the % chance each team gets 10+ Ws given their respective schedules. Lets go!🧵
#SEC (% Chance @ 6+ Ws/% Chance @ 10+ Ws)
#Alabama #RTR 99.9%/89.5%
#Arkansas #WPS 55.3%/11.0%
#Auburn #WarEagle 36.9%/1.8%
#Florida #Gators 81.0%/17.4%
#Georgia #UGA 99.9%/93.3%
#Kentucky #BBN 66.7%/7.3%
#LSU #GeauxTigers 81.8%/29.1%
#HailState 47.8%/2.6%
#Alabama #RTR 99.9%/89.5%
#Arkansas #WPS 55.3%/11.0%
#Auburn #WarEagle 36.9%/1.8%
#Florida #Gators 81.0%/17.4%
#Georgia #UGA 99.9%/93.3%
#Kentucky #BBN 66.7%/7.3%
#LSU #GeauxTigers 81.8%/29.1%
#HailState 47.8%/2.6%
#SEC (% Chance @ 6+ Ws/% Chance @ 10+ Ws) (cont)
#Mizzou 69.2%/11.6%
#OleMiss 96.9%/41.4%
#SouthCarolina 31.2%/0.8%
#Tennessee #Vols 95.3%/35.6%
#TAMU #GigEm 99.0%/75.1%
#Vanderbilt #AnchorDown 2.3%/ <0.1%
#Mizzou 69.2%/11.6%
#OleMiss 96.9%/41.4%
#SouthCarolina 31.2%/0.8%
#Tennessee #Vols 95.3%/35.6%
#TAMU #GigEm 99.0%/75.1%
#Vanderbilt #AnchorDown 2.3%/ <0.1%
Version 3 of the #CFBPlayoff rankings were released last night. What you expected? If youve followed along since early Oct you know the process. You werent surprised. For the rest of you, lets take a look & compare to what was projected using the same process used for 5 yrs.
First off, why does the committee use this process? Think about it. 14 busy guys make up this committee. They have roughly 60 hrs from when the last game ends on Sat to when they need to have this Top 25 created on Tues. If they evaluate only 30 teams to get that 25, how much
time is adequate to evaulate? 1 hr? Thats 30 hrs of evaluation. Half the time is gone & no one has slept. The process of getting a consensus out of 14 people hasnt even started. Thats why this process is kept so simple, & its why they have a defined predictable process.
