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the stories and narratives around the impact of #odte are pretty contorted. one of them is that the volume of these began increasing in June'22 and because there are net sellers (really?) it goes to explain a decline in vol since then. here's an alternative explanation -->
simply put, equity vol follows realized vol (carry matters most) and realized vol has been driven by the market's ability to see where the Fed is going. that path became clearer as the hiking cycle matured and inflation cooperated...the $MOVE fell and the $VIX followed. -->
first chart is 1w ATM implied the $SPX since June'22 along with 1m realized. Interestingly, by June, 1m realized was 30...what might the implied vol be? pretty darn close to 30 as well. hard to argue that the decline in implied isn't a function of the decline in realized.
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$DIA $IWM #trading #options #Futures
The Bear's take:

•Rates and valuations are high
•Looming Recession
•Geopolitical tensions are increasing
•Earnings will be low
•Macro enviroment is ugly
•Layoffs are increasing

#SPX #ES_F $SPX #options #trading #Futures #DayTrading #scalping #odte $SPY $ES #VIX #VVIX

The Bull's take

•Inflation/Commodities/Oil/Dollar are down
•Techs are taking the lead again
• $FAANG chart is bullish
•Breadth indicators are strong
• $VIX, $VVIX and #DXY in strong donwtrend
•Positive divergence from CCI, RSI, ROC, Stochastics
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