•Rates and valuations are high
•Looming Recession
•Geopolitical tensions are increasing
•Earnings will be low
•Macro enviroment is ugly
•Layoffs are increasing
•Inflation/Commodities/Oil/Dollar are down
•Techs are taking the lead again
• $FAANG chart is bullish
•Breadth indicators are strong
• $VIX, $VVIX and #DXY in strong donwtrend
•Positive divergence from CCI, RSI, ROC, Stochastics #SPX#ES_F $SPX
NEXT WEEK
Our take
•Big earnings week $TSLA $MSFT $IBM $MMM $INTC in our sights
•Momentum is up, but 4000 is a tough wall
•4074 is again our target
•Market will go up ahead of FOMC
•Gamma is a burden, it's mostly concentrated below 4000 for the whole week
•Recession is just around the corner
• Rates and valuations are high
• Geopolitical tensions
• Friday, stocks rise on low volume
• Earnings will be low
•China Covid shutdown hurt earnings
• Market is overbougth
• #VVIX is rising
• Inflation/Commodities/Oil/$ are ↓
• $DJI chart is very bullish. $DJT and $IWM also look good
•Up week on increasing volume
• $VIX and #DXY in strong donwtrend
•Breadth indicators are strong
•Positive divergence from CCI, RSI, ROC, Stochastics
If you haven't read it
From our newsletter:
$DJI
"Last Friday it managed - just like the $DJT and $IWM - to make a solid upward breakout... did so on high volume... close above the 20, 50, 100 and 200DMA.
All indicates that this will most likely be the way forward for the #SPX"
" #DJT made an excellent breakout and closed above 20 and 100DMA. It closed right at its 50DMA. Bullish action from a leading indicator. $DJT will have to surpass the conjunction of 50DMA and 200DMA next week, in order to validate more upward moves"
It did that yesterday
"A follow up rally is expected to allow it to break out of the Noise Box and break above at least the 20DMA.
On Monday it broke above the Noise Box, yesterday above the 20DMA, today above the 50DMA"
•Recession is around the corner
• Rates ↑
• Geopolitical tensions
•CPI is coming
• Bearish monthly engulfing candle on the main indexes
• Charts of market leaders are broken
•Bearish flag on the index charts
•Inflation/Commodities/Oil/ $DXY are ↓
• $DJI and $DJT broke above consolidation
•Higher volume on up days
• $VIX in strong donwtrend
• $VVIX broke below support, is at 2017 levels
•Positive divergence from classic indicators
•Breadth is + #SPX
We should look at the indices that have led the recent moves up and down: $DJI, $IWM, $DJT, #S5TH.
The #DJI has a more defined Noise Box. It broke out of it last Friday, and did so on higher volume, closing above 50DMA and 20DMA. Bullish, DJI should continue up on Monday
$SPX
$DJT has as $DJI a more defined Noise Box. It broke out of it yesterday in higher volume, closing above 20DMA, and like $SPX rigth at the 50DMA
The general look of this chart is bullish short term, so a continuation rally is on the menu for next week
• Rates, dollar, employment ↑
• Geopolitical tensions
• $VIX and $VVIX are above 20DMA and uptrending
• $SPX closed below 200, 100, 50 and 20 DMA
• Negative #Gamma regime
• Leading sectors are breaking down
$ES_F $SPX $SPY #SPX#VIX#trading
NEXT WEEK
The Bull's take
•Inflation/Commodities/Oil/ $DXY are ↓
•Seasonality favors up movement
•It was all about heavy $GEX & #Quad witching day
•Indices are very near strong support
• $VIX and $VVIX still in donwtrend
• Breadth indicator (#S5TH) is still holding #SPX